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Overview
Business leaders who are looking for stability and certainty in planning investments instead are being confronted with an array of forces injecting instability across the tax policy landscape. A key challenge for business leaders will be to engage with policymakers and the public to build support for policies that promote business investment and job creation. It is critical for the business community to play an active role in defining the tax policy choices ahead as other interest groups seek to influence public views on policies affecting future economic growth.
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Defining the choices ahead
Who’s in charge
With the 118th Congress having returned the week of January 8 for its second session and the start of the 2024 election year, the House and Senate face difficult legislative challenges.
US tax policy outlook
Congress is unlikely to act on the bipartisan tax package being developed unless it can be added to a “must pass” federal spending legislation or a stand-alone tax bill can garner a super-majority level of support in both the House and Senate. If no action on a tax package is taken early this year, efforts to address these three business tax provisions and the child tax credit may have to wait until 2025 when all of the TCJA individual provisions are set to expire.
Global tax policy outlook
Pillar Two represents the biggest corporate tax reform in a generation and will fundamentally change how large businesses calculate and pay tax internationally. The Pillar Two global minimum tax will significantly impact tax functions of MNCs. Pillar Two’s global adoption, including the anticipated divergence in local rules, poses additional complexities that cannot be underestimated.
9:11
PwC's Policy on Demand: Will Morris on Pillar Two answers
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State tax policy outlook
Overall uncertainty in state revenues, the economic outlook, the end of pandemic-related federal funding, and upcoming elections are the backdrop as state legislatures begin their 2024 sessions. State personal and corporate income tax revenues declined steeply overall in the beginning of 2023, although that trend improved somewhat later in the year. Sales tax revenues increased in nominal terms but decreased in real terms, reflecting the impact of inflation.
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