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While actions taken by the Trump administration introduced significant, if only temporary, headwinds that stalled deal activity early in the year, quarterly announcements in banking remained steady through May 2025. In fact, US bank industry merger activity continued to grow through the end of 2024 and early 2025, with deal values paced by two deals estimated at more than $10 billion announced in March and April, and volumes driven primarily by smaller bank consolidation. Of note, fintech and payments companies showed increased deal activity, and we continue to see financial institutions looking for buyers as they move to divest non-core business assets and redeploy capital to core areas.
We continue to be optimistic about the second half of the year, as we emerge from uncertainty caused by tariffs and other policy changes. Factors that indicate a quickening pace in bank deals include:
Note: The source used in the 2025 midyear outlook is S&P Global Market Intelligence.
As pressures that curbed dealmaking abate, expect significant competition for assets or entire businesses that become available. It’s crucial for management teams to have a comprehensive playbook to capture value and drive growth from transactions in this environment. In particular:
“We expect increased banking deals activity in the remainder of 2025, as the regulatory and policy environment stabilizes and financial institutions focus on core businesses.”
Dan Goerlich,US Banking Deals LeaderAs we gain further insight into the impact of the new administration's actions on trade and policymaking, we anticipate an increase in both the number and size of banking deals through the remainder of the year.