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M&A remains soft with strategic deals signaling long-game thinking
Deal activity in the transportation and logistics (T&L) sector remained consistent in early 2025 as compared to the same period in 2024. In the United States, deal volume was muted as companies navigated sustained macroeconomic pressure, policy shifts and geopolitical volatility. T&L leaders are prioritizing strategic alignment over volume with subsectors like airfreight, logistics, and marine ports and terminals attracting the most interest.
Recent headline deals like BlackRock’s proposed $22.8 billion acquisition of CK Hutchison’s global ports business underscore growing institutional interest in ports. Meanwhile, UPS’s planned $1.6 billion acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group reflects the push into growth-oriented segments like healthcare.
These and similar transactions suggest dealmakers continue to pursue scale, specialization, and global expansion where demand signals remain strong.
Key trends year to date:
- Uncertainty suppressing deals activity: The sector is contending with geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea, Ukraine, Gaza and Pakistan which disrupt global trade flows. Hopes for US interest rate cuts in early 2025 have faded. But the most significant shock was the US administration’s sweeping tariff overhaul, extending far beyond the end of the de minimis exemption, with steep new duties on key import categories. While deals activity held steady through late 2024, it has slowed markedly in 2025 as industry players take a wait-and-see approach.
- Continued interest in infrastructure: Investor appetite for T&L infrastructure remains strong. Recent transactions involving maritime ports and airport assets highlight the enduring strategic value of scalable, policy-aligned infrastructure.
- Portfolio realignment towards resilient logistics segments: Carriers are focusing their portfolios on specialized growth areas with strong margins and high barriers to entry such as cold chain services, healthcare and pharmaceutical logistics, reverse logistics, white glove delivery, and spare parts logistics. Tuck-in acquisitions in these areas are increasingly viewed as accretive plays.
- 3PL and supply chain tech remain active: The 3PL and supply chain technology segments continue to attract interest from both financial sponsors and strategic buyers. Fragmentation within these segments presents consolidation opportunities, with firms leveraging M&A to scale and modernize operations.
- Improving valuation gaps: Recovery in trucking rates and volumes following the freight recession may help bridge valuation gaps between buyers and sellers in the second half of 2025. However, continued softness in ocean freight and pricing volatility in air cargo could constrain activity.
Note: The source used in the 2025 midyear outlook is S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Looking ahead
Tariffs, foreign policy, interest rates and geopolitical tensions remain key variables influencing T&L deal activity. Greater clarity on trade policy — including defined tariff structures and an actionable framework — could unlock renewed momentum. In contrast, persistent uncertainty is likely to keep dealmakers in a holding pattern. In either scenario, shifts in tariff policies could reshape the competitive landscape, creating winners and losers across regions and transportation modes.
Key watchpoints include:
“The transportation and logistics sector is acutely sensitive to tariff shifts, which often stall deal activity amid uncertainty — yet for discerning investors, this volatility can present rare opportunities to unlock long-term value.”
Darach Chapman,US Transportation and Logistics Deals LeaderThe bottom line
Transportation and logistics M&A activity in 2025 will depend heavily on improved policy clarity and macroeconomic stability. While recent volatility has tempered near-term dealmaking, strong underlying drivers — like sponsor exit pressure, abundant dry powder and portfolio realignment — point to a resilient pipeline. Investors with a clear deal thesis and a focus on long-term value creation will be well positioned as the sector begins to rebound.
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