US Deals 2025 midyear outlook

Transportation and logistics

  • Publication
  • 4 minute read
  • June 18, 2025

M&A remains soft with strategic deals signaling long-game thinking

Deal activity in the transportation and logistics (T&L) sector remained consistent in early 2025 as compared to the same period in 2024. In the United States, deal volume was muted as companies navigated sustained macroeconomic pressure, policy shifts and geopolitical volatility. T&L leaders are prioritizing strategic alignment over volume with subsectors like airfreight, logistics, and marine ports and terminals attracting the most interest.

Recent headline deals like BlackRock’s proposed $22.8 billion acquisition of CK Hutchison’s global ports business underscore growing institutional interest in ports. Meanwhile, UPS’s planned $1.6 billion acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group reflects the push into growth-oriented segments like healthcare.

These and similar transactions suggest dealmakers continue to pursue scale, specialization, and global expansion where demand signals remain strong.

Key trends year to date:

  • Uncertainty suppressing deals activity: The sector is contending with geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea, Ukraine, Gaza and Pakistan which disrupt global trade flows. Hopes for US interest rate cuts in early 2025 have faded. But the most significant shock was the US administration’s sweeping tariff overhaul, extending far beyond the end of the de minimis exemption, with steep new duties on key import categories. While deals activity held steady through late 2024, it has slowed markedly in 2025 as industry players take a wait-and-see approach.
  • Continued interest in infrastructure: Investor appetite for T&L infrastructure remains strong. Recent transactions involving maritime ports and airport assets highlight the enduring strategic value of scalable, policy-aligned infrastructure.
  • Portfolio realignment towards resilient logistics segments: Carriers are focusing their portfolios on specialized growth areas with strong margins and high barriers to entry such as cold chain services, healthcare and pharmaceutical logistics, reverse logistics, white glove delivery, and spare parts logistics. Tuck-in acquisitions in these areas are increasingly viewed as accretive plays.
  • 3PL and supply chain tech remain active: The 3PL and supply chain technology segments continue to attract interest from both financial sponsors and strategic buyers. Fragmentation within these segments presents consolidation opportunities, with firms leveraging M&A to scale and modernize operations.
  • Improving valuation gaps: Recovery in trucking rates and volumes following the freight recession may help bridge valuation gaps between buyers and sellers in the second half of 2025. However, continued softness in ocean freight and pricing volatility in air cargo could constrain activity.
Transportation & logistics: deal value and volume

Note: The source used in the 2025 midyear outlook is S&P Global Market Intelligence.

1.36B

In 2024, more than 1.36 billion shipments entered the United States duty-free under the de minimis exemption, which waived tariffs on imports valued at $800 or less. As of May 2, 2025, the exemption was eliminated for goods originating in China and Hong Kong, replaced by a new framework of fees and targeted tariffs.

Looking ahead

Tariffs, foreign policy, interest rates and geopolitical tensions remain key variables influencing T&L deal activity. Greater clarity on trade policy — including defined tariff structures and an actionable framework — could unlock renewed momentum. In contrast, persistent uncertainty is likely to keep dealmakers in a holding pattern. In either scenario, shifts in tariff policies could reshape the competitive landscape, creating winners and losers across regions and transportation modes.

Key watchpoints include:

Dealmakers are navigating a volatile environment with new tariff frameworks, paused reciprocal tariffs and evolving foreign investment rules. These evolving policies affect freight flows and valuation assumptions, particularly for ocean, air, intermodal and cross-border 3PL providers.

If the Federal Reserve begins easing interest rates in the second half of 2025, its impact on the cost of capital could unlock further dealmaking — especially for private equity (PE) and leveraged buyers.

Efforts by the Trump administration to help resolve geopolitical conflicts — including a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, de-escalation of the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and a path forward in the Israel-Gaza conflict — could ease pressure on global markets. Progress on these fronts could help stabilize trade flows and alleviate some of the uncertainty.

Fragmented transportation and supply chain technology providers continue to attract attention from both financial sponsors and strategic buyers. As companies seek scalable solutions to modernize operations, logistics tech is emerging as a key area for investment and consolidation.

Aging PE portfolios are likely to drive increased exit activity — whether through M&A or IPOs. Warehousing, 3PL and last-mile logistics remain prime candidates as firms look to monetize assets in high-demand, margin-resilient segments.

Multi-modal players are expected to continue refining their  service offerings to enhance their operational focus, unlock shareholder value, and manage portfolio risk. For example, FedEx is spinning off its less-than-truckload (LTL) freight division, FedEx Freight, to create two independent publicly traded companies. Also, there is a growing shift toward higher margin services, including temperature-controlled logistics, which reflects a broader push to expand into new customer segments with stable demand profiles.

“The transportation and logistics sector is acutely sensitive to tariff shifts, which often stall deal activity amid uncertainty — yet for discerning investors, this volatility can present rare opportunities to unlock long-term value.”

Darach Chapman,US Transportation and Logistics Deals Leader

The bottom line

Transportation and logistics M&A activity in 2025 will depend heavily on improved policy clarity and macroeconomic stability. While recent volatility has tempered near-term dealmaking, strong underlying drivers — like sponsor exit pressure, abundant dry powder and portfolio realignment — point to a resilient pipeline. Investors with a clear deal thesis and a focus on long-term value creation will be well positioned as the sector begins to rebound.

Explore national M&A trends

Required fields are marked with an asterisk(*)

By submitting your email address, you acknowledge that you have read the Privacy Statement and that you consent to our processing data in accordance with the Privacy Statement (including international transfers). If you change your mind at any time about wishing to receive the information from us, you can send us an email message using the Contact Us page.

Hide