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The checkout counter has become more than a transaction point. It’s a lens into consumers’ payment choices—reflecting economic strain, shifting trust, and a desire for control. And this year, something unexpected is happening: more people are paying with cash.
According to PwC’s 2025 Holiday Outlook, 48% of US consumers expect to use cash among their top three payment methods this season—marking a seven-point increase from the previous year. Gift cards are also on the rise, with 27% of shoppers placing them among their top-three payment options, compared to 14% in 2024. This might seem like a nostalgic hiccup in a digital economy, but it’s actually something deeper—a signal about how people want to spend and what they want to avoid, which is especially important to understand alongside the rise of agentic commerce.
PwC’s analysis of panel data from Numerator shows that the cash trend spans income levels. Even households earning $125,000+ are using cash, especially in categories like office supplies, household goods, groceries, apparel, and electronics.
What’s driving this uptick? Consumers may be reasserting control—to manage debt, stay on budget, or make spending more intentional. It’s primarily a budgeting tool, especially with some small businesses offering discounts for cash purchases. And, in an environment where every card swipe triggers fees, data tracking, and automated prompts for tips, cash offers simplicity, security, and privacy.
Why it matters
Cash may still represent a small slice of total payments, but it carries a powerful message: People want payment methods they can trust and control.
Even Gen Z, while not leading the cash comeback overall, is leaning into cash as well as gift cards and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL). The reason? They're likely trying to set spending limits, avoid credit score impacts, and sidestep transaction fees. Cash delivers immediacy and finality. BNPL offers digital structure—predictable, interest-free installments with clear terms. Both resonate for the same reason: they feel tangible, trackable, and easier to manage.
In time, that sense of control can also drive confidence. According to PwC analysis of receipt data, across online merchants, orders paid with BNPL were 43% larger than non-BNPL orders. And after adopting BNPL, a shopper’s average order size rises about 5-9%—especially among younger, lower-income shoppers buying smaller-ticket items. The takeaway? When people feel they can manage spending on their own terms, they’re more willing to say yes.
For retailers, that means clarity matters on pricing, promotions, and policies, all of which AI agents can now read and rank when recommending products. On the back end, enhancing fraud controls, marketing spend, and real-time pricing can be critical as agentic systems begin to transact autonomously.
Google recently announced its agent payments protocol, followed by OpenAI and Stripe with ChatGPT’s instant checkout and agentic commerce protocol. These innovations, along with tech modernizations on the banking side, are paving the way for secure, agent-to-agent transactions. Retailers that prepare now will be better positioned to compete.
Merchants are no longer just payment takers. They’re payment strategists.
The bottom line
Each payment method has tradeoffs. Credit cards carry interchange fees that erode margins. Cash, debit, ACH, and emerging options like stablecoins offer lower-cost alternatives.
Zoom out, and the cash-to-agent transition isn’t linear. But across the journey, consumers are seeking control. Whether that control is exercised manually (through a $20 bill) or digitally (with a tokenized digital payment issued to an agent), the emotional contract should be built on similar principles—ease, clarity, and trust.
The return of cash isn’t a fluke. It’s a message. In a world of economic pressure and automation, consumers are using payments to reclaim agency. The question isn’t whether digital wins. It’s how digital earns the same trust cash already holds. For retailers and payments providers alike, the path forward is clear: Build systems that make digital feel as dependable as dollar bills.
As agentic commerce grows, trust is the most important currency.
What retailers can do now
- Don’t dismiss cash. It’s a strategic signal. Offer discounts or loyalty benefits tied to cash or debit use.
- Design digital to feel like cash. Strengthen product data, accuracy, and discoverability for generative engine optimization (GEO) in AI-driven shopping.
- Adopt cost-efficient payment rails. Tap into automated clearing house (ACH) transactions, real-time payments, and stablecoins to reduce fees and friction.
- Agent-proof your checkout. Enhance application programming interfaces (APIs) and metadata to support AI transactions.
- Elevate trust. Build safeguards that serve both humans and machines.
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