A software reset and AI infrastructure race are reshaping tech deals

Key findings

• AI is crossing industry boundaries, with capital and strategic partnerships extending beyond technology markets, including Anthropic's Claude Partner Network.

• Deal activity is forming a barbell: transformational megadeals at one end and smaller, speculative AI tuck-ins at the other, with limited activity in the middle as the pace of technological change makes it difficult to identify durable winners.

• SpaceX’s reported $1.75T IPO filing is raising expectations for a new AI-led IPO cycle, led by the likes of  Anthropic, OpenAI, and Cerebras.

• SaaS is entering an AI-led value creation cycle, with M&A filling capability gaps and shifting pricing toward usage and outcomes.

The defining trend in early 2026 is the scale of AI revenue. Anthropic's annualized run rate surpassed $30 billion in early 2026, up from roughly $9 billion at year-end 2025, while OpenAI reportedly topped $25 billion by February. The pace of growth signals the movement from investment narrative to measurable financial performance but also carries significant infrastructure demands. OpenAI carries approximately $600 billion in compute spending commitments through 2030, and the four largest hyperscalers have guided a combined $670 billion in 2026 capex, a continued increase from 2025 investments.

This scale is reshaping transaction structures. SpaceX's partnership with Cursor includes a $60 billion acquisition option, a hybrid structure that blends commercial partnership with M&A optionality. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic continue to expand through consulting alliances and private equity-backed partnerships. Together, these developments indicated an evolution in how AI capabilities are distributed, integrated, and monetized across the market.

SaaS companies continue to face valuation pressure as investors reassess how AI may reshape traditional software models, and challenge conventional per-seat pricing structures. At the same time, uncertainty around how AI will ultimately integrate into enterprise software, particularly for repeatable workflows, may create opportunities to acquire high-quality software assets at attractive entry points. Recent transactions, including IBM's $11 billion acquisition of Confluent and SAP's agreement to acquire Dremio, suggest buyers are increasingly prioritizing platforms with embedded workflows, proprietary data, and increased switching costs that may become more valuable in an AI-enabled operating environment. As a result, compressed valuations are beginning to drive renewed interest in software M&A and take-private opportunities for select assets.

Palo Alto Networks closed its acquisition of CyberArk in February and ServiceNow completed its $7.75 billion purchase of Armis in April, as platform players move to build end-to-end security stacks as AI adoption continues to expand enterprise attack surfaces at an exponential rate.

Capital markets may represent the next major inflection point for the technology sector, with SpaceX targeting $1.75 trillion IPO and Anthropic, OpenAI, and Cerebras all expecting to test public markets in the next year. Successful listings could reset valuation benchmarks and reopen venture-backed liquidity at scale. However, the near-term IPO market remains highly selective, centered around a small group of scaled, category-defining businesses. At the same time, we’ve observed that impatient capital is producing a resurgence in SPAC activity, as companies continue searching for alternative paths to liquidity amid ongoing valuation uncertainty.

Technology dealmakers face two defining priorities in the next six months: assess which software platforms can adapt to AI-enabled operating models and move decisively around AI infrastructure and ecosystem position. Enterprise software platforms are increasingly adapting their architectures to accommodate agents as a user. Salesforce recently redesigned its platform around agent-enabled workflows, Microsoft is increasingly emphasizing orchestration layers and API-driven execution in product updates and ServiceNow, SAP, and Oracle are expanding AI-enabled workflow automation across enterprise environments. Together, these developments suggest a broader shift in how software is built, priced, and valued. Platforms capable of supporting high-volume agent interaction may ultimately expand monetization beyond traditional seat-based models, while businesses with less differentiated functionality could face greater competitive pressure.

Competition for compute, power, and data center capacity continues to intensify. AI expansion is increasingly intersecting with sectors such as energy, life sciences, and professional services, bringing technology-style valuation dynamics into markets that were previously more insulated. Competitive advantage is increasingly accruing to companies able to combine scarce infrastructure access with enterprise distribution and customer reach through acquisitions, strategic partnerships, and hybrid transaction structures.

These shifts continue to reshape technology dealmaking. Buyers are evaluating targets not only on current growth and retention metrics, but also on AI defensibility, acceleration potential, and organizational readiness. Deal activity remains concentrated around large strategic transactions and smaller capability-driven acquisitions, while much of the middle market remains selective and thesis-driven. At the same time, diligence and integration timelines are compressing as companies move more quickly to secure infrastructure, distribution, and workflow positioning ahead of broader market repricing. A successful mega cap IPO could further accelerate liquidity and valuation resets across AI-adjacent sectors, favoring buyers and sponsors that have already established conviction around target positioning and execution strategy. 

Technology dealmaking is increasingly being shaped by how quickly companies can adapt to AI-enabled operating models and evolving competitive dynamics. Enterprise software is undergoing a significant transition as agent-driven architectures and AI-native competition challenge traditional pricing models and workflows. Deal activity remains polarized, with transformational strategic transactions and targeted AI tuck-ins driving activity while much of the middle market waits for greater clarity. Compressed software valuations are creating differentiated entry points for sponsors with conviction. The next cycle may favor dealmakers that move early—before public markets reset expectations.

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