Cross-border Tax Talks

Geopolitical reset: Stability and Agility in 2026

Doug McHoney (PwC’s International Tax Services Global Leader) is joined by Craig Stronberg, Senior Director on PwC’s Intelligence Team. Craig leads analysts focused on macroeconomic and geopolitical intelligence; he previously served in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Doug and Craig discuss why business and tax leaders should focus on the geopolitical landscape to understand its impact on cross-border business, including tax. Stability is the new bar for many businesses in 2026, requiring greater agility to deal with change. Craig discusses how many businesses are in a 'wait‑and‑see' mode versus decisive movers across industries. He also describes areas of focus, such as the US policy stance for the Americas, Greenland, and tariffs; the Global South’s rising coordination; and governance strains across the G20. While AI data falsification is a significant concern, Craig suggests practical actions for boards such as enabling direct access to the business’ risk team.

• [00:06] Introductions; Craig Stronberg’s experience and role leading PwC’s Intelligence team.
• [01:30] How to stay current; build a team with a diversified global viewpoint that goes beyond a US-centric lens.
• [04:15] PwC’s Strategic Intelligence Estimate: the search for stability; focusing on agility, and controlling how external shocks impact business.
• [07:10] What does a ‘wait and see’ mode cost businesses? Of the corporate postures: 80% may be wait‑and‑see, 15% debating major changes, 5% making major moves.
• [10:00] Industry contrasts: tech vs. long-cycle manufacturing; financial services’ firms may have more agility.
• [12:00] Geopolitical disruption in Venezuela; US administration clarity; and more to come in the Americas.
• [15:15] What is the risk from conflicts to business operations? What if Europe becomes a bigger target? US interest in Greenland, impact on NATO.
• [19:30] What is the 'Global South' and why and how is their collective voice growing?
• [22:30] UN Charter rewrite? UN rising as venue for developing country tax policy influence.
• [23:50] G20 governance check: few leaders thriving; drowning in data and resources
• [26:50] Which markets are safe bets for investment? Japan; US (with some work); ASEAN emerging markets.
• [30:30] US – China relations; China’s underappreciated tech progress; implications for AI competition and growth.
• [32:15] China’s influence on geopolitical risk in the AI journey: data falsification / infrastructure poisoning as strategic threat.
• [35:35] How should boards rethink risk committees and intelligence functions to deal with the fragmented world order? 
• [37:40] What geopolitical assumption should business leaders stop making?
• [39:20] Closing; stay tuned for another exciting edition. 

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