Our Take: financial services regulatory update – November 01, 2024

Change remains a constant in financial services regulation. Read "our take" on the latest developments and what they mean.

Current topics – November 01, 2024

1. Election 2024: The stakes for financial services

  • What’s at stake? As the November 5th election comes down to the wire, financial institutions are assessing what the various scenarios could mean for them. While the likely outcomes of many races are still highly uncertain, the industry can consider the following factors across each branch of government:
    • Executive. The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is extremely close, with predictions shifting daily. The result of the Presidential election will have the most direct and immediate impact on the financial services industry through appointments to lead the financial services regulatory agencies, which would determine their regulatory and supervisory trajectories.

      If Trump wins, he would appoint a new Treasury Secretary and could quickly replace the leaders of the CFPB, OCC, SEC and CFTC. However, Fed leaders, including Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, have terms ending in mid-2026 but could be replaced sooner if they choose to step down. The future of FDIC leadership is uncertain as President Biden’s nominee to lead the FDIC, Christy Goldsmith Romero, is still awaiting confirmation. In the event of a Trump victory, she could still be confirmed to a five year term before January but her ability to advance policies at the FDIC would be limited by new Trump-appointed CFPB and OCC leaders on the FDIC board and she may choose to step down like former Chairman Jelena McWilliams did when faced with the same situation.

      Conversely, if Harris wins, there is currently no indication that she would replace any of the senior regulators before their terms end or they step down. If she does need to make any appointments, her choices would be affected by the result of the Senate election as described below.

    • Legislative. Although the spotlight is naturally on who will occupy the White House, the impact of the Presidential election will be influenced by the results of the Senate races as cabinet and senior financial services agency positions are subject to Senate confirmation. This year, 34 Senate seats are on the ballot with Democrats defending 23, including six in Republican-leaning and toss-up states, making their current two-vote majority highly unstable.

      Republicans currently hold eight more seats than Democrats in the House of Representatives, but all 435 seats are up for a vote and current models suggest that the current slim margin could shift in either direction. The House has no say on nominations, but could either act as a check on a split government (e.g., a Democratic majority in the House in the event of a Trump win and Republican Senate majority) or advance policy through lawmaking in the event of a single-party sweep. In the latter scenario, if it is a Republican sweep, Congress could vote to overturn recent rulemaking under the Congressional Review Act without the threat of a veto.

    • Judicial. The election does not have any immediate impact on the judicial branch, but the President and Senate will both have roles in modifying the judiciary through appointments over the next four years. In the event of a Trump win and a Republican Senate majority, this could mean further extending the conservative majority on the Supreme Court and appointing more conservative judges across district courts.
  • What’s next? Polls will close across the country between 6 PM EST at the earliest and 12 AM at the latest. Final results may not be determined for several days.

Our Take

Steady as she goes or back to the future? Although neither Presidential candidate has focused on financial services policy on the campaign trail, the industry has a reasonably strong sense of the direction they would both take - either from the experience of the past four years or the prior four. A Harris victory would likely see the current regulatory leaders stay in place and continue to advance their priorities, particularly when it comes to consumer protection. However, as Democrats face a steep uphill battle to maintain a Senate majority, she would likely face a Republican Senate for at least the first two two years of her term and have to choose relatively moderate candidates for her cabinet, court vacancies, and regulatory positions that become available. On the other hand, if Trump wins, he would appoint new regulators that would likely swing the pendulum back towards relief for banks with under $250 billion in assets as was the case in his first term. They would also be able to change the direction of certain proposed rules that are not finalized by January. If a Trump win is accompanied by Republican Congressional majorities, his nominees would be more easily confirmed by the Senate and both chambers could vote to overturn recently finalized regulations like the CFPB’s open banking rule. Apart from regulatory policy, new Trump appointees would be able to alter the direction of the agencies’ supervisory practices. It takes time for organizational gears to turn, but new leaders could modify examination tactics and priorities.

For more, see The road ahead: How the 2024 election will impact your business and stay tuned for more detailed coverage of the election impact as races are called over the next several weeks.

2. Treasury finalizes new outbound investment review program

  • What happened? On October 28th, the Treasury Department finalized regulations for a new outbound investment review program which aims to prevent “countries of concern” from benefiting from U.S. outbound investments in sensitive economic sectors. The final regulations build upon the framework in the Biden Administration’s August 2023 Executive Order, August 2023 Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, and the July 2024 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.
  • What are the key elements and what changed from the proposal? The outbound investment review program prohibits or requires notification of certain transactions by U.S. persons (including citizens, residents and entities organized under U.S. law) involving covered foreign persons in three product categories: 1) semiconductors, 2) quantum technology, and 3) artificial intelligence (AI) – in named “countries of concern.”
    • Covered transactions: The final rule specifies the subjects of transactions that would be either prohibited or notifiable across the three product areas, as well as covered transaction types including acquisition of an equity interest or contingent equity interest; certain debt financing that affords certain rights to the lender; the conversion of a contingent equity interest; a greenfield investment or other corporate expansion; a joint venture; and certain investments as a limited partner (LP) or equivalent in a non-U.S. person pooled fund.
    • Knowledge standard: The rule specifies that a U.S. person are prohibited from “knowingly” engaging in prohibited transactions, specifying that knowledge of a covered transaction includes: “...(1) actual knowledge that a fact or circumstance exists or is substantially certain to occur; (2) an awareness of a high probability of a fact or circumstance’s existence or future occurrence; (3) reason to know of a fact or circumstance’s existence.” Relative to the proposal, the final rule includes more detail on what Treasury considers to be reasonable due diligence and clarifies that it will consider the totality of facts and circumstances related to the transaction.
    • Notification requirement: Details of a transaction subject to the notification requirement need to be filed with Treasury no later than 30 days after the transaction is completed or the U.S. person acquires knowledge of it.
    • Exemptions and exceptions: The final rule allows U.S. persons to seek an exemption on the basis that the transaction is in the national interest of the U.S. It also outlines certain types of transactions that are excepted, including publicly traded securities; buyouts of country of concern ownership; intracompany transactions; binding commitments entered into prior to the rule’s effective date; and certain syndicated debt financings. Relative to the proposed rule, the final rule adds certain transactions between a U.S. person and its controlled foreign entity; employee compensation in the form of stock or stock options; and certain derivatives.
  • What’s next? The final regulations will be effective on January 2nd, 2025.

Our Take

New legal liability for a wide scope of transactions. Although this new outbound investment program is centered on three areas of technology, the definitions of covered persons and transactions could capture a broad range of transactions and investments. Firms that currently are or may become involved with investments related to semiconductors, quantum technology, and AI will need to ramp up their due diligence programs, capabilities, technology, and resources to ensure that they do not engage in prohibited transactions or fail to file a required notification. In order to prepare for the final program, firms should prioritize the following activities over the coming months:

  • Inventory planned investments to identify potentially covered transactions.
  • Assess the ability of existing compliance programs to facilitate review of proposed investments, including whether all parties to transactions provide enough information to determine whether they are covered foreign persons.
  • Develop and implement mitigation strategies and controls for scenarios when covered transactions are identified, including technology-enabled monitoring solutions.

3. On our radar

These notable developments hit our radar recently:

  • Treasury targets third-country sanctions evasion. On October 30th, the Treasury Department sanctioned 275 individuals and entities across 17 jurisdictions involved in supplying Russia with advanced technology and equipment, including those involved in illicit procurement networks and financial facilitators used to evade previous sanctions.
  • FATF updates list of jurisdictions with AML/CFT/CPF deficiencies. On October 30th, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) announced that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) updated its lists of jurisdictions with deficiencies in standards for anti-money laundering, countering the financing of terrorism, and countering the financing of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (AML/CFT/CPF). The FATF added Algeria, Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, and Lebanon to its list of Jurisdictions Under Increased Monitoring and also removed Senegal from the list.
  • Swap dealers continue to face compliance challenges. Since the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act over ten years ago, swap dealers and security-based swap dealers have undertaken significant efforts to implement and maintain processes and systems to comply with its reporting requirements, including updates issued by the CFTC in 2022. In this Our Take Special Edition, we examine the root causes of swaps reporting deficiencies, summarize key changes resulting from the CFTC reporting rewrite, and outline actions swap dealers can take to address both areas.
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