- What’s at stake? As the November 5th election comes down to the wire, financial institutions are assessing what the various scenarios could mean for them. While the likely outcomes of many races are still highly uncertain, the industry can consider the following factors across each branch of government:
- Executive. The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is extremely close, with predictions shifting daily. The result of the Presidential election will have the most direct and immediate impact on the financial services industry through appointments to lead the financial services regulatory agencies, which would determine their regulatory and supervisory trajectories.
If Trump wins, he would appoint a new Treasury Secretary and could quickly replace the leaders of the CFPB, OCC, SEC and CFTC. However, Fed leaders, including Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, have terms ending in mid-2026 but could be replaced sooner if they choose to step down. The future of FDIC leadership is uncertain as President Biden’s nominee to lead the FDIC, Christy Goldsmith Romero, is still awaiting confirmation. In the event of a Trump victory, she could still be confirmed to a five year term before January but her ability to advance policies at the FDIC would be limited by new Trump-appointed CFPB and OCC leaders on the FDIC board and she may choose to step down like former Chairman Jelena McWilliams did when faced with the same situation.
Conversely, if Harris wins, there is currently no indication that she would replace any of the senior regulators before their terms end or they step down. If she does need to make any appointments, her choices would be affected by the result of the Senate election as described below.
- Legislative. Although the spotlight is naturally on who will occupy the White House, the impact of the Presidential election will be influenced by the results of the Senate races as cabinet and senior financial services agency positions are subject to Senate confirmation. This year, 34 Senate seats are on the ballot with Democrats defending 23, including six in Republican-leaning and toss-up states, making their current two-vote majority highly unstable.
Republicans currently hold eight more seats than Democrats in the House of Representatives, but all 435 seats are up for a vote and current models suggest that the current slim margin could shift in either direction. The House has no say on nominations, but could either act as a check on a split government (e.g., a Democratic majority in the House in the event of a Trump win and Republican Senate majority) or advance policy through lawmaking in the event of a single-party sweep. In the latter scenario, if it is a Republican sweep, Congress could vote to overturn recent rulemaking under the Congressional Review Act without the threat of a veto.
- Judicial. The election does not have any immediate impact on the judicial branch, but the President and Senate will both have roles in modifying the judiciary through appointments over the next four years. In the event of a Trump win and a Republican Senate majority, this could mean further extending the conservative majority on the Supreme Court and appointing more conservative judges across district courts.
- What’s next? Polls will close across the country between 6 PM EST at the earliest and 12 AM at the latest. Final results may not be determined for several days.
Our Take
Steady as she goes or back to the future? Although neither Presidential candidate has focused on financial services policy on the campaign trail, the industry has a reasonably strong sense of the direction they would both take - either from the experience of the past four years or the prior four. A Harris victory would likely see the current regulatory leaders stay in place and continue to advance their priorities, particularly when it comes to consumer protection. However, as Democrats face a steep uphill battle to maintain a Senate majority, she would likely face a Republican Senate for at least the first two two years of her term and have to choose relatively moderate candidates for her cabinet, court vacancies, and regulatory positions that become available. On the other hand, if Trump wins, he would appoint new regulators that would likely swing the pendulum back towards relief for banks with under $250 billion in assets as was the case in his first term. They would also be able to change the direction of certain proposed rules that are not finalized by January. If a Trump win is accompanied by Republican Congressional majorities, his nominees would be more easily confirmed by the Senate and both chambers could vote to overturn recently finalized regulations like the CFPB’s open banking rule. Apart from regulatory policy, new Trump appointees would be able to alter the direction of the agencies’ supervisory practices. It takes time for organizational gears to turn, but new leaders could modify examination tactics and priorities.
For more, see The road ahead: How the 2024 election will impact your business and stay tuned for more detailed coverage of the election impact as races are called over the next several weeks.