Cross-border Tax Talks

Tariffs, Tensions, and Tightropes: A global risk tour

Doug McHoney (PwC’s International Tax Services Global Leader) is joined by Anja Manuel, co-founder and principal at Rice, Hadley, Gates, and Manuel LLC, a strategic consulting firm, and a former diplomat, author, and foreign policy advisor. Doug and Anja discuss the geopolitical forces reshaping cross-border business, including the Iran conflict and its implications for oil, shipping, Gulf investment, and AI infrastructure; China’s internal trajectory, tariffs, critical minerals, Taiwan, and supply-chain strategy; the growth outlook for Southeast Asia and India; Europe’s competitiveness challenges and the war in Ukraine; Venezuela’s political and investment risks; the effect of possible US midterm shifts on foreign policy; and whether international institutions, alliances, and the broader global economy still offer reasons for optimism despite a highly unstable backdrop.

• [01:40] What early experience shaped her worldview?
• [02:30] Three themes for reading today’s geopolitical environment
• [05:00] Iran and the wider Middle East
  • [07:00] How the conflict could end, and what remains uncertain
  • [08:25] Oil, shipping, and the macroeconomic fallout
  • [10:20] Whether the UAE still works as a regional investment hub
  • [11:40] AI investment, Gulf capital, and data center vulnerability
• [13:40] China’s internal dynamics: control, purges, and a two-speed economy
  • [16:45] Trade war outlook: extended truce, not a reset
  • [18:30] Taiwan and signs of a temporary military stand-down
  • [19:05] What the tariff ruling means for negotiations
• [21:35] India and Asia’s brighter spots
  • [21:50] Southeast Asia’s growth and tech momentum
  • [22:25] India’s confidence, reforms, and remaining friction
  • [24:15] Aadhaar and the shift from informal to formal activity
• [24:50] Europe’s growth challenge, regulation, and coalition politics
  • [27:35] Eastern Europe investment and the Ukraine endgame
• [30:45] Venezuela’s political shift after the US operation
  • [32:35] Why Venezuela is still not broadly investable
• [33:50] US midterm elections and whether Washington slows down
• [35:45] Revisiting Anja’s 2016 book, This Brave New World
• [38:55] The future of institutions and alliances
• [40:45] Reasons for optimism for global businesses

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