Continued political uncertainty leading up to the presidential inauguration, the speed of the business traveler's return after a vaccine, and the length and severity of a resurgence of the virus in Q4 and into 2021 are impacting lodging's recovery in the US. In our May edition, we had assumed the then consensus view that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in the US peaked in late April. We now know this did not occur, and that the current daily number is over four times that level. This has significantly impacted the recovery timeline. We currently expect annual occupancy for US hotels this year to drop to 44%, and average daily room rates to drop 21%, with resultant RevPAR declining 47% from last year. RevPAR in 2020 is expected to fall to a level not seen since 1996.
"The significant increase in daily COVID-19 cases across the country is troubling and expected to prolong recovery for hotels."
PwC Hospitality Directions US is a near-term outlook for the U.S. lodging sector, commonly used by industry decision-makers and stakeholders to better understand the impact of policy and other macro-environmental factors on the sector’s operating performance. Our outlook includes metrics for the overall sector as well as for the chain scales, and is used by our clients for
US Hospitality & Leisure Practice Leader, PwC US
US Hospitality & Leisure Managing Director, PwC US