| Metric | Current Rule | Proposal |
|---|---|---|
| Average SCB (all banks) |
3.88% | 3.82% |
| Year-over-Year SCB Change (all banks) |
65 bps | 54 bps |
| Year-over-Year SCB Change (GSIBs) | 37 bps | 21 bps |
Our take
Following Bowman’s blueprint. These proposed changes and those planned for the rest of the year mirror policies outlined in Vice Chair for Supervision nominee Michelle Bowman’s September 2024 speech, suggesting the Fed’s directional shift began well before a formal leadership transition. They also align with longstanding industry calls for more predictable capital requirements to support balance sheet and lending stability. Banks, particularly those subject to annual stress testing, will appreciate more modest shifts in their capital requirements year-over-year. Combined with an additional quarter to make the necessary changes, the proposal would allow firms to hold smaller management buffers to account for SCB volatility and enable more flexibility to reinvest earnings or to return capital to shareholders. However, banks will likely push for further SCB relief contemplated in alternatives to the proposed approach, including averaging over three years and asymmetric two-year averaging (i.e., only taking the most recent result if it is lower).
Changes to reporting are more significant than they may appear. While positioned as a technical update, the Fed’s proposed changes to CCAR reporting carry meaningful implications - particularly for banks with large wealth management businesses. By introducing new reporting fields for compensable revenue and commissions, the Fed is signaling a shift in how it models non-interest expense under stress, acknowledging that financial advisory compensation is directly impacted by declines in equity markets and associated fees and commissions. Banks will likely seek further detail on these changes in feedback to the proposal, including whether commission-based revenue in areas outside of wealth management will need to be reported in the new field. While less material than the compensation changes, the consolidation of non-recurring expenses could still yield favorable capital impacts by excluding one-time costs from projected losses. Banks will need to revisit how they define, tag, and document these expenses to ensure alignment with revised expectations.
What’s the bottom line? The proposal is a welcome sign of stress testing and capital relief, but it is just the start. Banks will likely seek further SCB adjustments and will be eagerly anticipating the Fed’s release of its models and scenarios for comment. It will be a long-awaited opportunity to look under the hood and suggest changes that would bring the Fed-modeled loss results more in line with the banks’ own (generally lower) internal model results.
1 Finalized in 2020, the SCB replaced the static 2.5% capital conservation buffer to set a capital requirement that would change based on the latest year’s Fed-modeled stressed capital losses and four quarters of planned dividends.
Our take
Et tu, OCC? The OCC incident is a live case study in why firms must prepare for breaches of not only their own systems but also those of their regulators, cloud providers and third parties. Although financial institutions do not have much choice when it comes to sharing data with their regulators, this incident will prompt both sides to reconsider the methods and nature of their data sharing, including to what extent electronic transmission of sensitive data remains viable. As the OCC continues to identify the scope of information that was compromised and strengthen its data protections, financial institutions will look for full transparency and assurance before resuming electronic data transfers. Reassuring banks that the OCC has sufficiently addressed deficiencies that enabled the breach will also be important as the newly-elevated ITS function seeks to scrutinize banks’ data protection practices.
Identity is the new perimeter. Barr’s remarks on the rise of GenAI-enabled cyber threats highlight the imperative to integrate and continuously evolve identity management, fraud prevention, and cybersecurity threat monitoring. To effectively mitigate these attacks, identity and access management controls should be designed in concert with an overall omni-channel fraud risk management strategy that contemplates GenAI-enabled attackers and incorporates real time fraud decisioning leveraging signals across the customer lifecycle. Just as important are the response and recovery capabilities layered behind the prevention stack such as two-way messaging and AI-enabled fraud alert review.
What’s the bottom line? While the OCC works to restore trust in its protection of sensitive data, financial institutions should ensure all data sharing risk is identified, documented and mitigated (or accepted, depending on the scale and nature of the risk). When it comes to evolving AI-enabled threats, institutions that integrate their fraud and access management teams while utilizing AI for monitoring and defense will be better positioned to withstand the next wave of tech-enabled threats - whether they’re real, synthetic, or somewhere in between.
Our take
The CFPB lives - with a dramatically diminished size and mission. While the CFPB remains intact, the combination of staffing cuts, continued litigation and the reduced mission outlined in the memo significantly reduce what actions it can and will take going forward. Particularly with respect to enforcement, it remains to be seen what kinds of “actual intentional” harm will prompt the agency to act. Perhaps consumer complaints publicized in the media or Congressional hearings – particularly those involving servicemembers or veterans – could provide such impetus. But investigation and enforcement require resource allocation, and particularly where other agencies can carry the ball, it is likely the CFPB will deprioritize the work involved.
The states are on deck but there may be challenges ahead. The memo formalizes expectations that the CFPB will cede supervision and enforcement to states and other regulators as much as possible. As the CFPB has been the primary authority for federal consumer protection examinations and violations for more than a decade, it will take some time, administrative effort and potential litigation for states or other agencies to pick up the mantle. Although states like New York are already pursuing expanded consumer protection statutes and enforcement, preemption challenges may still limit states’ ability to investigate and enforce existing or future consumer protection rules that affect lending, fees, and disclosures.
What’s the bottom line? The fact remains that financial institutions do not have free rein to abandon consumer protection policies, procedures and controls. Expectations around fairness, transparency, and consumer outcomes are still rising, with lapses in these areas having potential to damage firms’ competitive standing. Firms that maintain robust governance around fairness and bias will be better positioned for future swings in the policy pendulum.
Our take
Crypto clarity continues but questions remain. The statements from the SEC are meaningful steps to provide clarity for issuers of digital assets but questions remain:
The DOJ shifts crypto enforcement priorities. By refocusing its attention on end users themselves rather than services, the DOJ is easing any chilling effect stemming from the threat of enforcement in areas where the platform did not act willingly. However, firms should remain aware that FinCEN, state attorneys general and other regulatory agencies and law enforcement will still be holding firms accountable for Bank Security Act and AML violations, and FinCEN in particular expects that digital asset platforms have risk-based AML programs. Further, while the DOJ is deprioritizing its focus on platforms, we do not expect that they will turn a blind eye to any platform that becomes a haven for illicit activity or is used in furtherance of a high-profile crime.
What’s the bottom line? The SEC and DOJ have kept the momentum going toward more crypto clarity, but it will take some time for official frameworks around asset classification and stablecoin regulation to emerge. While the DOJ may be relaxing its focus on crypto platforms, the need for focus on BSA/AML compliance remains; banks will still need to perform know-your-customer and customer due diligence on their clients and platforms will still need to be approved as customers for banking services.
These notable developments hit our radar recently:
Hood reiterates OCC priorities. On April 16th, Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood spoke about four strategic focus areas for the OCC: 1) reducing regulatory burden by tailoring oversight to each bank, 2) promoting financial inclusion, 3) embracing bank-fintech partnerships through innovation spaces like regulatory sandboxes, and 4) expanding responsible bank activities involving digital assets.
NCUA board members removed. On April 15th, the Trump Administration removed two Democratic members of the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), former Chairman Todd Harper and member Tanya Otsuka. Harper was appointed to the board during the first Trump Administration and was named chairman by President Biden in 2021. Otsuka was nominated by President Biden in 2023. Their Senate-confirmed terms were to end in 2027 and 2029, respectively.
OCC announces reorganization changes. On April 16th, the OCC announced changes to its organizational structure, including Combining Large, Midsize and Community Bank Supervision to be a consolidated Bank Supervision and Examination function; reinstating the Chief National Bank Examiner office which will include the existing divisions of Bank Supervision Policy as well as Supervision Risk and Analysis; and elevating the Information Technology and Security (ITS) function to be led by a new Senior Deputy Comptroller who will be a member of the OCC’s executive committee. The changes are set to take effect on June 2nd.
Regulation review coming due. April 20th marks the deadline for agency heads to provide the White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) with an inventory of federal regulations categorized by classes described in a February 19 Executive Order. April 20th also marks the deadline for a number of other reports to the White House across several topics, including federal workforce reduction and immigration.