After the sugar rush: A new path to CPG growth

After two years of inflation-fueled expansion, the sugar rush is over. For business leaders in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, the challenge now is to deliver sustainable, margin-conscious growth in a fragmented and volatile global market.

Many revenue growth management (RGM) teams are still operating with legacy assumptions—relying on models built for developed markets with clean data, consolidated retail channels and reliable promotional levers. But growth has shifted elsewhere and so have the rules.

In the United States, revenue growth models rely on structured retail channels, point-of-sale transparency, and granular data. In Southeast Asia, however, the reality couldn’t be more different: traditional trade dominates many markets, accounting for up to two-thirds of retail activity. That means people are shopping at small independent stores, informal kiosks, and street vendors—channels where data is scarce, promotions are loosely tracked, and sales often happen in cash. Sophisticated price optimization tools become guesswork when visibility drops.

Margin structure, promotional return on investment (ROI) and operational efficiency are under growing scrutiny across global markets. And yet, many organizations are still scaling Western-centric RGM frameworks across vastly different commercial environments. That misalignment often leads to wasted spend and missed opportunity—sometimes where growth is strongest.

Some CPG leaders have already pivoted. Instead of organizing by geography, they group markets by archetype. That means segmenting countries based on six operational characteristics: trade classification, route-to-market complexity, data availability, financial controls, regulatory environments, and local RGM talent.

For example, a global beverage company recently created a shared RGM framework across 15 markets, then allowed local teams to tailor it based on local promotional dynamics and consumer behaviors. That balance enabled faster execution and better ROI, especially in markets where local nuance drives volume more than brand equity. In another case, we built a standardized pricing playbook that empowered local flexibility while preserving brand and margin integrity.

But many companies are still applying developed-market tools to emerging economies, and the misalignment can be costly. For instance, one global food supplier found $50 million in wasted spend by simply mapping its distributor network in Southeast Asia. In environments with limited data and opaque channels, just understanding where your money goes can make a big difference to the bottom line.

These lessons keep repeating: Taking price has a tradeoff on volume. Promotional strategy alone won’t stop new entrants from stealing share. And efforts to balance global scale with local agility often come down to uncovering what really differentiates the brand in-market.

There’s no universal strategy for revenue growth and most CPG leaders know it. Instead, we’re seeing three distinct RGM tracks emerge, each matched to the data maturity, trade landscape, and operational complexity of the market.

• Developed markets (e.g., North America, Europe): These areas offer strong data infrastructure and established RGM capabilities. But that doesn't mean easy wins. With competitors using similar playbooks, differentiation comes from AI-enabled insights, mid-tier customer modeling, and nuanced pricing strategies. In France, for example, discount stacking rules require entirely different mechanics from the United States.
• Semi-developed markets (e.g., Mexico, China, India): These are hybrid ecosystems with a mix of modern and traditional trade, and moderate data availability. They're often misperceived as monolithic, but winners know better. The most effective companies segment shoppers and channels precisely, then tailor a clear value proposition for each key segment across brand, price, pack, and channel. In India, for example, while single-serve sachets dominate shampoo sales, long lines in front of premium coffee shops highlight the opportunity for premiumization. Companies with sophisticated brand positioning and price-pack architecture capabilities are better equipped to capture the full range of demand and drive profitable growth from the most relevant consumer segments in India.
• Developing markets (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia): Visibility is victory. Distribution networks are multilayered and data sparse. Here, organizations need to rethink ROI expectations and equip sales teams with guidance that balances top-down standards with on-the-ground realities. Regional centers of excellence can help lift capability across adjacent markets.

RGM is no longer a siloed pricing function. For leading CPGs, it’s becoming a cross-functional capability embedded within finance, sales, and category management teams. And increasingly, it’s viewed as a strategic lever for growth.

That shift is being accelerated by artificial intelligence. In developed markets, AI is already automating data cleaning, forecasting and promotion modeling at the zip code level. In emerging markets, its value lies in making sense of imperfect data—converting noise into signal, and approximations into guidance.

Meanwhile, some companies are exploring RGM-as-a-service. Rather than building full teams market by market, they’re tapping shared global expertise, centralizing analytics and deploying insights locally. It’s a promising model, particularly in smaller or lower-data markets.

Growth dynamics are shifting. Inflation is no longer the tide that lifts all markets. And, in turn, RGM models need to reflect the operational reality, not just an aspirational concept. That means business leaders should focus on the most critical priorities, including:

• Segmenting markets by archetype, not just region
• Embedding RGM teams in commercial decision-making
• Using AI to enable agility and insight at scale
• Standing up regional centers of excellence
• Designing incentives and governance that support local execution

The sugar rush is over. Companies that rethink their RGM models now—market by market, not from headquarters down—can be positioned to grow more profitably and predictably in the years ahead.