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Key takeaways:
The trucking shakeout is accelerating, creating a more unsettled market backdrop. Carrier failures rose roughly 35% in 2025 and are running another 12% higher in 2026, according to PwC analysis of industry bankruptcy data, with smaller carriers bearing much of the pressure.
Capability has become more valuable than capacity. Shippers are paying premiums of roughly 10% to 30% for specialized capacity, according to PwC analysis of current transaction economics, rewarding carriers with differentiated equipment, services, and customer relationships.
Cross-border logistics is emerging as a strategic growth area. Continued investment in Mexico is increasing demand for integrated US–Mexico transportation, brokerage, and warehousing.
Capital is shifting toward asset-light models. Asset-light deals have seen greater interest across North American trucking since 2023, according to PwC analysis of data from Capital IQ, as buyers seek capital-efficient, technology-enabled businesses with more resilient earnings.
The next 18–24 months could represent a distinctive opportunity for trucking mergers and acquisitions (M&A). After years of freight recession, excess capacity has worked its way out of the market, and rates have begun to stabilize. At the same time, persistent financial pressure has prompted weaker operators to restructure, sell assets, or exit altogether. But this isn’t simply a chance to buy trucking capacity at a discount.
The more important shift is in what buyers are seeking. Value is moving toward specialized capabilities, strategically important networks, and capital-efficient business models that can produce more resilient earnings through freight cycles. For buyers, that means the next M&A cycle is likely to look different from the last one.
From capacity to capability
Stronger acquisition theses are expected to focus on adding capabilities that can deepen customer relationships, improve network density, open new markets, or create more predictable earnings. Recent transactions illustrate the point: The buyers capturing value are pairing scale with a specific strategic rationale, not simply chasing discounted capacity. The carriers and platforms worth buying today are the ones with a credible path back to pre-pandemic profitability, not just a bankruptcy-driven discount.
We see three areas where this shift can be particularly visible.
1. Capability has become more valuable than capacity.
Acquirers are increasingly using M&A to add specialized capabilities, such as cold chain, dedicated transportation, final-mile delivery, and brokerage. Recent deals in flatbed, oversized, and other specialized freight segments show acquirers are willing to pay a premium for capabilities that are difficult to replicate.
Specialized services can deepen shipper relationships, increase fleet and network utilization, and create additional revenue opportunities. Dedicated transportation can be particularly attractive because contracted revenue provides greater predictability and helps reduce exposure to the volatile spot market.
For strategic buyers, acquiring these capabilities can also create opportunities to cross-sell services across an existing customer base and network. Private equity sponsors can pursue a similar thesis from a different direction, using specialized businesses as anchors for buy-and-build platforms. And the common theme is increasingly clear: Buyers are paying for differentiation, not simply incremental trucks.
2. Cross-border networks are becoming a strategic growth platform.
Nearshoring is reshaping North American supply chains and increasing demand for integrated cross-border logistics. In 2025, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Mexico exceeded $40 billion, setting a record for the fifth consecutive year. Nearly half of this FDI came from the US and Canada. As manufacturing and supply chains evolve, carriers and logistics providers with established cross-border operations could become ever more important strategically.
For buyers, one of the most attractive targets is one that offers value beyond trucking capacity. Customs brokerage, transloading, warehousing, drayage, bilingual operations, and established compliance capabilities can make a cross-border platform significantly more valuable to shippers seeking broader North American coverage.
Strategic buyers are pursuing cross-border assets as a way to expand shipper wallet share and strengthen their networks. Private equity sponsors may see an additional opportunity to consolidate what remains a fragmented regional market.
But these deals can also carry meaningful risks. Tariff volatility, customs friction, technology integration, and imbalanced freight flow between geographies can quickly affect volumes and margins. Landstar’s 2025 decision to explore a sale of its Mexico freight operation following tariff-related pressure illustrates how quickly the economics can change.
In either case, the opportunity is not simply exposure to Mexico. It's the ability to provide an integrated cross-border solution.
3. Capital is shifting toward asset-light logistics.
Buyers are increasingly interested in capital-efficient, AI-enabled businesses with recurring revenue: freight brokerage, 3PLs, transportation software, freight forwarding, and asset leasing. Compared with traditional fleet-heavy operations, these models can scale more efficiently, require less maintenance capital, and produce steadier cash flow with less direct exposure to freight-rate swings, labor costs, insurance costs, and equipment financing. Industry benchmarks put asset-light margins at 15% to 20% EBITDA, versus 6% to 8% for asset-heavy trucking operations, a gap wide enough to reshape how these businesses are valued.
Technology platforms can help buyers improve pricing, routing, and shipment visibility without owning a large fleet. Adjacent services such as trailer leasing and third-party maintenance can generate recurring revenue while still benefiting from trucking activity.
These asset-light businesses are especially attractive to private equity sponsors running buy-and-build strategies. Strategic buyers are using them to add digital capabilities and strengthen customer retention.
Different buyers, different playbooks
Strategic buyers can create value through network density, customer expansion, and operating synergies, but only if they integrate the companies without disrupting service or losing people. DSV’s move to divest USA Truck in late 2025, after the unit it inherited through its April 2025 acquisition of DB Schenker posted a $14 million quarterly loss, is a reminder of what's at stake when an acquired business doesn't fit the plan. Private equity sponsors are more focused on operational improvement, consolidation, asset-light models, and resilient portfolio development. Their returns depend on disciplined entry pricing, real profit improvement, and a credible exit. Neither buyer type should count on a freight-market recovery to carry the investment case on its own.
Where deals are won or lost
In trucking, deal value is usually gained or lost in the first 12–24 months after closing, and the high cost of fuel can be a real stress on the system. Given how operating costs have increased, these four considerations will likely prove critical to success for the foreseeable future:
Successful acquirers routinely tie integration efforts back to the reason they did the deal in the first place, whether that was a desire for network density, new capabilities, or margin improvement.
The window won’t stay open
Trucking’s reset is creating real but temporary M&A opportunities. Strategic buyers can build lasting advantage through network and capability expansion; private equity sponsors can create value through consolidation and operational improvement. And companies not currently in a deal can still determine which side of change they want to be on.
In each case, the outcome will likely be decided by a combination of execution and timing. Companies that act with a clear thesis, underwrite decisions honestly, and follow through with discipline are expected to be the ones that come out ahead as the freight market recovers.
The winners will not necessarily be the companies that add the most trucks. They are expected to be the ones that use M&A to add the right capabilities, networks, and business models—and then integrate them without disrupting the operations and customer relationships they acquired.
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