The courage to decide: How effective leaders move through uncertainty, not around it

August 12, 2026

Sean Viergutz

Chief Clients and Markets Officer, PwC US

Key takeaways:

Effective leaders create space to think before they act.
Waiting for perfect certainty can be riskier than acting with incomplete information.
Leadership requires bringing people along, not just making the call.

There’s a phrase that keeps coming up in boardrooms right now: “We're almost there.”

Almost ready to commit to the expansion. Almost aligned on the AI strategy. Almost confident enough to move. Almost.

And almost is comfortable because it feels like progress without exposure. Responsible, even. Often, however, almost is actually a decision to let someone else go first. And in an environment moving this fast, almost is how you can end up reacting to a world that a competitor is already shaping.

History’s most effective leaders didn’t wait for the dust to settle before acting. They had the courage to be decisive in the face of uncertainty, and they shaped what came next. And the gap between those who moved and those who almost moved is where legacies were decided.

History lessons for today’s leaders

In a recent conversation with Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, we explored what 250 years of American leadership can teach us about moments like this one. She highlighted key practices that repeated across revolutions, depressions, world wars, and technological upheaval.

Her main insight: The people who transformed history weren’t any more certain of the outcome than everyone else. But they did have a set of practices that helped them move through uncertainty with purpose.

Here’s what they did.

1. Created space to think clearly despite the constant pressure to act

In the presidential histories Doris brought to life, the ability to act decisively often depended on the ability to take a step back first. Abraham Lincoln stepped away from the daily White House noise at his cottage at the Soldiers’ Home. Teddy Roosevelt used exercise and time outdoors to reset his perspective. FDR took time away from Washington at critical moments, including the fishing trip where he developed the Lend-Lease idea for World War II. This wasn’t avoidance. It was discipline to distance themselves from the noise.

Today’s leaders are surrounded by more data, more signals, and more pressure to respond in real time. But moving too fast without perspective can often make things worse. The ones who make better decisions know when to pause and take the time to absorb what’s happening so they can see the bigger picture.

“Maybe one of the most underappreciated leadership traits—especially in a fast-moving time like ours, with the stress on people, with cell phones everywhere with them, with AI, with information [coming] so fast—is finding time to find that mental space to think, reflect, and absorb what’s happening.…[These presidents] all found a way to be able to think, reflect, and relax so [they could] make judgments and have perspectives.”

Doris Kearns Goodwin

2. Seized the initiative and moved before the picture was complete

Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation in the middle of a war he had not yet won. FDR launched the New Deal within his first 100 days, before anyone could fully predict its outcome. Teddy Roosevelt broke up the trusts before he knew whether the courts or the public would back him. None had complete information, but all had a framework for action and, importantly, the conviction to use it.

The data will never be perfect, and the cost of waiting for it keeps going up. Your options narrow, talent moves, and the window to act shrinks. The leaders creating separation right now don’t necessarily know more. They’re the ones with the courage to act on what they do know.

3. Built trust and support along the way

Lincoln assembled and nurtured a political coalition that could implement his vision through a war and beyond. FDR used fireside chats to communicate to the American public what he was doing and why. Teddy Roosevelt made his case publicly and forcefully, using language the common person understood. These presidents built coalitions and trust while they were moving—by communicating clearly, explaining the stakes, and giving the confidence that they were working for the people.

Today’s leaders don’t require overall alignment before they act. They do need to bring people along as decisions take shape. They build trust through the process by moving with conviction, explaining the stakes clearly, and making it easy for others to join. They build support by making the path easy to understand and hard to ignore.

“[FDR] earned the trust of the people by communicating through his fireside chats. People felt he was talking to them directly. There’s a story of a construction worker running home after work, and his partner said, ‘Where are you going?’ He said, ‘My president, he’s coming to speak to me tonight in my living room. It’s only right I’d be there to greet him when he comes.’ When the people trust the leader and the leader works on their behalf, then things happen.”

Doris Kearns Goodwin

4. Told the story before they knew the ending

The presidents who made history were, at their core, narrators. They framed the moment and named what was at stake. They gave people a reason to endure difficulty and uncertainty, not by promising it would be easy, but by making the effort feel meaningful. Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address reframed a bloody war as a test of whether democracy could survive. FDR’s “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” line in his first inaugural address didn’t describe a solution—it described a posture. It told people how to stand before it told them what to do. Teddy Roosevelt’s famous “man in the arena” speech inspired both individuals and whole nations to embrace vigorous action instead of sitting on the sidelines.

When more people have access to the same data, the same analysis, and the same projections—and are making the same moves—the narrative can provide an edge. The leaders who pull ahead are better storytellers. They frame what they’re seeing and where they’re headed clearly enough that their people move with them instead of throwing up roadblocks that consume time and resources.

The bottom line

The leaders who move with purpose, who build coalitions in motion, and who tell the story before they have the ending are the ones who can shape what comes next.

The cost of getting it wrong is real. But the cost of almost deciding? That’s how you’re remembered as the leader who had the opportunity—and waited just long enough to miss it.

Video

America at 250: leading through change

From the American Revolution to Hamilton’s financial system, the Civil War, industrialization, electrification, aviation, D-Day, civil rights, the internet, and AI, America’s history has been shaped by moments that tested resilience and reset what was possible. For 250 years, leaders have turned constraint, change, and uncertainty into growth. Those lessons can help us understand what’s shaping the business landscape now and what opportunities may come next.

Contact us