Jasa Marga's smooth stock performance during Christmas and New Year period
This article has been translated by PwC Indonesia as part of our Indonesia Infrastructure News Service. PwC Indonesia has not checked the accuracy of, and accepts no responsibility for the content.
Investor Daily - Jalan mulus saham Jasa Marga di momen Nataru
30 December 2024
By Ghafur Fadillah
Jakarta, ID – The Christmas and New Year holidays of 2024 have been a breath of fresh air for PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR). Amid a fluctuating stock market, the toll road issuer's shares rose smoothly to Rp4,330 by the close of trading on Friday (27/12/2024), marking an increase of 4.59% over the last week. Supported by the holiday momentum, promising performance prospects, and potential for technical strengthening, JSMR's shares still have the potential to gain up to 46%, reaching Rp6,350.
Sharon Natasha, Retail Research Analyst at CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia, revealed that the Christmas and New Year holiday momentum significantly impacted Jasa Marga. “Jasa Marga’s stock price rallied by 6.4% after a period of weakness. The main catalyst is, of course, the increased traffic volume as the Christmas and New Year holidays approach,” Sharon stated on Berita Tentang Saham of CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia recently.
According to Jasa Marga’s data, 1,332,878 vehicles left Greater Jakarta from seven days to one day before Christmas in 2024. This number represents an 18.2% increase compared to regular traffic levels. The four main toll gates contributing the most are Cikupa, Ciawi, Cikampek Utama, and Kalihurip Utama, all of which provide access to popular destinations like Puncak, Bandung, and the Trans-Java route. “Long holidays are always a positive catalyst for Jasa Marga. The increased vehicle volume directly contributes to higher toll road revenue,” Sharon explained.
The increased vehicle traffic is expected to enhance Jasa Marga's performance, which had seen a 44% decrease in net profit to Rp3.3 trillion in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the previous year. Additionally, the toll road state-owned enterprise (SOE) will benefit from subsidiary divestment. “Jasa Marga is experiencing positive sentiment from the divestment of PT Jasamarga Transjawa Tol (JTT). The remaining payment of Rp6.1 trillion, received in December, contributes to the reduction of its net gearing ratio from 1.58 to 1.04,” Sharon added.
He continued by noting that the company's cash position drastically surged to Rp13.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2024, up from Rp4.7 trillion in the previous quarter. This increase strongly indicates the company's financial stability amid global economic challenges.
Technically, Sharon noted that JSMR’s shares are showing a positive signal. After strengthening to the resistance level at Rp4,540, the shares indicate potential for further gains. The golden cross in the RSI stochastic indicator and the high trade volume suggest an opportunity for the stock price to rise again. “The support level is at Rp4,270, and the resistance is at Rp4,510. Additionally, the long-term forecast shows potential for a net profit growth of 9% in 2025,” Sharon stated.
According to CGS International Sekuritas, Jasa Marga is among the issuers that stand to benefit significantly from the expected decrease in interest rates next year. With a target price of Rp6,350, the 46% upside potential presents a golden opportunity for investors.
Christmas and New Year strategies
Meanwhile, JSMR’s management previously announced that they have prepared several strategies to manage the Christmas and New Year holidays. These preparations include traffic engineering, the operation of new toll roads, and increasing toll road capacity.
Jasa Marga President Director Subakti Syukur stated that various preparations have been made to manage the anticipated surge in traffic during the Christmas and New Year holidays. “We are ensuring that toll road operations are in prime condition and meet minimum service standards by addressing issues like puddles and damage caused by extreme weather. Additionally, we are preparing new toll segments to be operational,” Subakti explained.
As part of its operational strategy, JSMR is preparing various traffic engineering schemes in collaboration with the police to anticipate potential congestion. This aligns with the traffic volume forecast during the peak outflow and return flow periods. The traffic engineering strategies include implementing contraflow on the Jakarta-Cikampek and Jagorawi toll segments, and the possible use of a one-way system if needed, in accordance with the joint decree signed on 6 December 2024.
In addition, Jasa Marga plans to operate several new toll segments, either fully or on a functional basis. These include the Kartasura-Klaten segment of the Yogyakarta-Solo toll road spanning 22.3 km and the Klaten-Prambanan toll segment spanning 8.5 km on a functional basis for free. Also included are the Gending-Kraksaan segment of the Probolinggo-Banyuwangi toll road spanning 10.3 km for free and the Sadang-Kutanegara segment spanning 8.5 km of the Jakarta-Cikampek II South toll road on a situational basis as per the police's discretion.
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