Global Economy Watch - Projections
Economic projections
Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.
January 2021
| Share of 2019 world GDP | Real GDP growth | Inflation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP | MER | 2020e | 2021p | 2022p | 2023-2027p | 2020e | 2021p | 2022p | 2023-2027p | |
| Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER")) | 100.0% | -3.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | |
| Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) | 100.0% | -3.9 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | |
| G7 | 31.7% | 45.5% | -5.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| E7 | 36.2% | 27.5% | -1.2 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| United States | 15.9% | 24.6% | -3.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| China | 17.4% | 16.5% | 1.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Japan | 4.1% | 5.8% | -5.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| United Kingdom | 2.4% | 3.2% | -11.0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Eurozone | 10.7% | 13.2% | -7.6 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| France | 2.4% | 3.1% | -9.2 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Germany | 3.5% | 4.4% | -5.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Greece | 0.3% | 0.2% | -9.5 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Ireland | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Italy | 2.0% | 2.3% | -9.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Netherlands | 0.8% | 1.0% | -4.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Spain | 1.5% | 1.6% | -11.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Poland | 1.0% | 0.7% | -3.4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Russia | 3.1% | 2.0% | -4.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Turkey | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Australia | 1.0% | 1.6% | -3.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| India | 7.1% | 3.3% | -9.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| Indonesia | 2.5% | 1.3% | -2.2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| South Korea | 1.7% | 1.9% | -5.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Brazil | 2.4% | 2.1% | -5.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Canada | 1.4% | 2.0% | -5.5 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Mexico | 2.0% | 1.4% | -9.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| South Africa | 0.6% | 0.4% | -8.2 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Nigeria | 0.8% | 0.5% | -3.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 13.0 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 11.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.2% | 0.9% | -5.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
e: Estimate, p: Projection
Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics and the OECD. Our projections are the average of projections from the OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics, where available for each country. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC global economic network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. Note that the table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.
| Current rate (Last change) | Expectation | Next meeting | |
| Federal Reserve | 0.00-0.25% (March 2020) | No rate rise for the foreseeable future | January 26-27 |
| European Central Bank | 0.00% (September 2019) | No rate rise for the foreseeable future | January 21 |
| Bank of England | 0.10% (March 2020) | No rate rise for the foreseeable future | February 4 |
Chart of the month
The chart on the right shows that based on the COVID-19 vaccine supply deals agreed at the time of writing, the UK and Canada could — in a best case scenario — vaccinate the most vulnerable in their respective societies by the end of Q1 2021. However, there is no precedent for vaccination programmes of the scale, scope and duration required for the COVID-19 pandemic, which comes with many logistical challenges. In practice, distribution may not align with the projected supply, and we could see these timelines pushed out.
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