Global Economy Watch - Projections

Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.
 

January 2023

  Share of 2022 world GDP (e) Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Inflation
  PPP MER 2022e 2023p 2024p 2025-2027p 2022e 2023p 2024p 2025-2027p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))   100.0% 2.8 1.6 2.6 2.7 7.0 4.4 2.9 2.4
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) 100.0%   3.1 2.0 3.0 3.1 8.0 5.1 3.5 2.8
G7 30.5% 42.9% 2.1 0.1 1.3 1.6 7.3 4.2 2.2 1.9
E7 37.5% 28.9% 3.2 3.7 4.6 4.4 6.3 4.4 3.7 3.1
                     
United States 15.5% 24.7% 1.8 0.2 1.4 1.8 8.0 3.8 2.3 2.1
China 18.6% 18.0% 3.1 4.7 5.2 4.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1
Japan 3.8% 4.2% 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.8 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.3
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.1% 4.1 -0.8 0.6 1.7 9.0 6.7 2.0 1.9
Eurozone 10.5% 12.0% 3.2 0.0 1.6 1.7 7.9 5.4 2.5 1.9
Germany 3.3% 4.0% 1.7 -0.5 1.5 1.7 8.2 6.2 3.0 2.0
France 2.3% 2.7% 2.5 0.1 1.3 1.5 5.5 4.4 2.3 1.7
Italy  1.9% 2.0% 3.5 -0.4 1.2 1.1 8.5 6.7 1.7 1.8
Spain 1.4% 1.4% 4.6 0.8 2.2 2.3 8.6 3.7 2.0 1.8
Netherlands 0.8% 1.0% 4.3 0.1 1.4 1.6 11.0 5.2 3.7 2.1
Ireland 0.4% 0.5% 9.5 2.6 3.1 2.5 8.3 5.0 1.5 1.8
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% 6.5 0.5 2.3 2.1 7.8 5.0 1.9 1.9
Greece 0.2% 0.2% 5.7 0.6 2.3 1.8 9.4 4.6 1.5 1.7
Poland 1.0% 0.7% 4.4 0.6 2.9 3.3 14.1 13.1 6.2 2.8
Russia 2.9% 2.1% -3.5 -3.4 1.4 1.3 13.8 6.2 4.8 4.2
Turkey 2.1% 0.8% 5.1 2.1 2.7 2.6 72.7 42.5 25.7 13.1
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 3.8 1.7 2.1 2.6 6.5 4.4 2.6 2.6
India 7.2% 3.4% 6.8 5.4 6.3 6.4 6.8 4.8 5.1 4.5
Indonesia 2.5% 1.3% 5.3 4.5 5.1 5.1 4.4 4.1 3.2 3.6
South Korea 1.7% 1.7% 2.6 1.4 2.5 2.3 5.3 3.2 2.0 1.9
Brazil 2.3% 1.9% 2.8 1.3 2.0 2.7 7.6 4.5 4.0 3.0
Canada 1.4% 2.2% 3.3 0.5 1.5 1.9 6.8 3.1 1.9 2.0
Mexico 1.8% 1.4% 2.5 1.3 2.0 2.1 7.9 5.3 3.5 3.2
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 6.8 5.5 4.3 4.6
Nigeria 0.8% 0.5% 3.1 2.7 3.0 2.9 19.0 16.7 12.1 9.9
Saudi Arabia 1.3% 1.0% 8.7 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.8

e: Estimate, p: Projection

Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics, the OECD, EBRD and The Economist Intelligence Unit. Our projections are a weighted average of projections from these sources. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. All inflation projections refer to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unless otherwise stated. The table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios particularly for economies where there may be a high degree of volatility and uncertainty.

  Current rate 
(Last change)
Expectation Next meeting
US Federal Reserve 4.25 - 4.50%
(14 December 2022)
Rising to between 4.5% and 5.0% 31 January 2023
European Central Bank 2.5%
(15 December 2022)
Rising to between 3.5% and 4.0% 2 February 2023
Bank of England 3.5%
(15 December 2022)
Rising to between 4.0% and 4.5% 2 February 2023

Chart of the month

China has been the world’s most populated country for several centuries. But in 2023 India is expected to reach an important milestone and overtake China as the world’s most populated country.

Today, China’s economy is almost three times larger than India’s (in PPPs) while the US is more than double its size. However, India’s rapidly growing population will help it close these gaps, with India set to account for close to a quarter of the increase in the world’s working age population in 2023. In 2017 we predicted in our World in 2050 report that India would overtake the US as the world’s second largest economy over the next 30 years. 

India will overtake China as the world's most populated country in 2023

GEW Jan 2023

Contact us

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)20 7213 1579

Jake Finney

Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 440369

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