Global Economy Watch - Projections
Economic projections
Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.
September 2021
| Share of 2019 world GDP | Real GDP growth | Inflation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP | MER | 2020p | 2021p | 2022p | 2023-2027p | 2020p | 2021p | 2022p | 2023-2027p | |
| Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER")) | 100.0% | -3.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | |
| Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) | 100.0% | -3.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | |
| G7 | 31.7% | 45.5% | -4.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| E7 | 36.2% | 27.5% | -0.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| United States | 15.9% | 24.6% | -3.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| China | 17.4% | 16.5% | 2.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Japan | 4.1% | 5.8% | -4.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| United Kingdom | 2.4% | 3.2% | -9.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Eurozone | 10.7% | 13.2% | -6.7 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
France |
2.4% | 3.1% | -8.1 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Germany |
3.5% | 4.4% | -4.9 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Greece |
0.3% | 0.2% | -8.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Ireland |
0.3% | 0.5% | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Italy |
2.0% | 2.3% | -8.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Netherlands |
0.8% | 1.0% | -3.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Spain |
1.5% | 1.6% | -10.9 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Poland | 1.0% | 0.7% | -2.7 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.0 |
| Russia | 3.1% | 2.0% | -2.9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Turkey | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.8 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 12.3 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 |
| Australia | 1.0% | 1.6% | -2.4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| India | 7.1% | 3.3% | -7.7 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Indonesia | 2.5% | 1.3% | -2.1 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| South Korea | 1.7% | 1.9% | -4.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Brazil | 2.4% | 2.1% | -4.1 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| Canada | 1.4% | 2.0% | -5.4 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Mexico | 2.0% | 1.4% | -8.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| South Africa | 0.6% | 0.4% | -7.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Nigeria | 0.8% | 0.5% | -1.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 13.3 | 16.6 | 12.4 | 11.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.2% | 0.9% | -4.1 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
e: Estimate, p: Projection
Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics and the OECD. Our projections are the average of projections from the IMF and Consensus Economics, where available for each country. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC global economic network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. Note that the table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. Date updated: 27/07/2021
| Current rate (Last change) | Expectation | Next meeting | |
| Federal Reserve | 0.00-0.25% (March 2020) | No rate rise for the foreseeable future | September 21-22 |
| European Central Bank | 0.00% (September 2019) | No rate rise for the foreseeable future | October 28 |
| Bank of England | 0.10% (March 2020) | No rate rise for the foreseeable future | September 23 |
Top of the charts
After the dramatic slump in tourism activity last year, and early this year, there are initial signs that tourists are starting to flock back to Europe. The graph to the right shows that inbound flights to European hotspots such as Greece and Cyprus are closer to pre-pandemic levels than they were at the same time last year. This should herald stronger growth in the third quarter of this year.
By contrast, in the UK and Germany – where their economies are less reliant upon tourism – inbound flights are still way below pre-pandemic levels.
