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Global Economy Watch - Projections

Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.
 

September 2021

  Share of 2019 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation 
  PPP MER 2020p 2021p 2022p 2023-2027p 2020p 2021p 2022p 2023-2027p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))   100.0% -3.3 6.1 4.3 2.9 1.8 3.1 2.6 2.5
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) 100.0%   -3.2 6.3 4.6 3.4 2.5 3.5 3.0 2.8
G7 31.7% 45.5% -4.9 5.5 3.8 1.6 0.8 3.0 2.3 1.9
E7 36.2% 27.5% -0.5 7.6 5.2 5.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
                     
United States 15.9% 24.6% -3.5 6.5 3.8 1.9 1.2 4.1 2.9 2.2
China 17.4% 16.5% 2.3 8.5 5.7 5.7 2.5 1.4 2.3 2.8
Japan 4.1% 5.8% -4.7 2.8 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0
United Kingdom 2.4% 3.2% -9.9 6.5 5.3 1.8 0.8 2.2 2.7 2.0
Eurozone 10.7% 13.2% -6.7 4.6 4.3 1.6 0.3 2.0 1.5 1.7

France

2.4% 3.1% -8.1 5.9 4.1 1.7 0.5 1.5 1.3 1.6

Germany

3.5% 4.4% -4.9 3.5 4.2 1.4 0.4 2.8 1.9 2.0

Greece

0.3% 0.2% -8.2 4.2 5.2 1.8 -1.2 0.0 1.0 1.6

Ireland

0.3% 0.5% 3.6 5.6 4.8 2.9 -0.4 1.6 1.5 2.0

Italy

2.0% 2.3% -8.9 4.7 4.1 1.0 -0.2 1.4 1.2 1.3

Netherlands

0.8% 1.0% -3.7 3.1 3.4 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.8

Spain

1.5% 1.6% -10.9 6.1 5.8 2.5 -0.3 2.1 1.4 1.7
Poland 1.0% 0.7% -2.7 4.2 4.9 2.8 3.4 4.2 4.5 3.0
Russia 3.1% 2.0% -2.9 3.7 3.1 1.9 3.9 5.7 4.0 4.1
Turkey 1.8% 0.9% 1.8 8.5 3.4 4.0 12.3 18.5 13.5 8.5
Australia 1.0% 1.6% -2.4 4.2 3.2 2.5 0.9 2.4 2.0 2.3
India 7.1% 3.3% -7.7 10.6 7.5 7.5 6.3 5.5 4.9 4.0
Indonesia 2.5% 1.3% -2.1 4.2 5.4 5.2 2.0 1.8 2.9 3.0
South Korea 1.7% 1.9% -4.7 2.8 2.5 2.7 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.7
Brazil 2.4% 2.1% -4.1 4.1 2.4 2.2 3.6 6.8 4.1 3.4
Canada 1.4% 2.0% -5.4 5.8 4.2 1.8 0.7 2.9 2.4 1.9
Mexico 2.0% 1.4% -8.3 5.4 3.1 2.3 3.3 5.9 3.7 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% -7.0 3.7 2.4 2.2 3.3 4.3 4.5 4.8
Nigeria 0.8% 0.5% -1.8 2.4 2.6 2.5 13.3 16.6 12.4 11.1
Saudi Arabia 1.2% 0.9% -4.1 2.6 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.0 1.9 2.5

e: Estimate, p: Projection

Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics and the OECD. Our projections are the average of projections from the IMF and Consensus Economics, where available for each country. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC global economic network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. Note that the table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. Date updated: 27/07/2021

  Current rate (Last change) Expectation Next meeting
Federal Reserve 0.00-0.25% (March 2020) No rate rise for the foreseeable future September 21-22
European Central Bank  0.00% (September 2019)  No rate rise for the foreseeable future October 28
Bank of England  0.10% (March 2020) No rate rise for the foreseeable future September 23

Top of the charts

After the dramatic slump in tourism activity last year, and early  this year, there are initial signs that tourists are starting to flock  back to Europe. The graph to the right shows that inbound flights  to European hotspots such as Greece and Cyprus are closer to  pre-pandemic levels than they were at the same time last year.  This should herald stronger growth in the third quarter of this year.

By contrast, in the UK and Germany – where their economies are  less reliant upon tourism – inbound flights are still way below pre-pandemic levels.

 

Flights to Europe start to rebound as tourism hotspots open up

Contact us

Jonathan Gillham

Director, Economics, PwC United Kingdom

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist

Tel: +44 (0)20 7213 1579

Hannah Audino

Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 348728

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