Global Economy Watch - Projections

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Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.
 

January 2021

  Share of 2019 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation 
  PPP MER 2020e 2021p 2022p 2023-2027p 2020e 2021p 2022p 2023-2027p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))   100.0% -3.9 4.7 3.7 2.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.5
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) 100.0%   -3.9 5.1 4.0 3.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.8
G7 31.7% 45.5% -5.3 3.7 3.1 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.9
E7 36.2% 27.5% -1.2 6.8 4.8 5.1 3.5 2.9 3.1 3.3
                     
United States 15.9% 24.6% -3.7 3.6 3.2 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.2
China 17.4% 16.5% 1.9 8.0 5.4 5.7 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.8
Japan 4.1% 5.8% -5.3 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.0
United Kingdom 2.4% 3.2% -11.0 3.5 6.0 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.0
Eurozone 10.7% 13.2% -7.6 4.3 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.7
France 2.4% 3.1% -9.2 6.0 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6
Germany 3.5% 4.4% -5.5 3.3 3.2 1.4 0.5 1.2 1.3 2.0
Greece 0.3% 0.2% -9.5 2.5 6.1 1.8 -0.8 0.4 0.9 1.6
Ireland 0.3% 0.5% 1.5 2.5 4.3 2.9 -0.4 0.5 1.9 2.0
Italy 2.0% 2.3% -9.0 4.6 2.9 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.3
Netherlands 0.8% 1.0% -4.5 1.8 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8
Spain 1.5% 1.6% -11.7 5.5 4.2 2.1 -0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7
Poland 1.0% 0.7% -3.4 3.6 4.2 2.8 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.6
Russia 3.1% 2.0% -4.0 2.9 2.3 1.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.1
Turkey 1.8% 0.9% 0.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 12.0 11.5 10.0 9.0
Australia 1.0% 1.6% -3.5 3.3 2.9 2.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.3
India 7.1% 3.3% -9.2 8.9 6.4 7.5 5.6 4.2 3.8 4.0
Indonesia 2.5% 1.3% -2.2 4.3 5.2 5.2 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.0
South Korea 1.7% 1.9% -5.3 2.5 1.6 2.7 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7
Brazil 2.4% 2.1% -5.3 3.0 2.2 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.4
Canada 1.4% 2.0% -5.5 4.1 2.7 1.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.9
Mexico 2.0% 1.4% -9.1 3.7 2.9 2.3 3.7 3.4 3.0 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% -8.2 3.2 2.0 1.9 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.8
Nigeria 0.8% 0.5% -3.9 1.6 2.5 2.5 13.0 13.7 11.2 11.1
Saudi Arabia 1.2% 0.9% -5.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.0 2.1

e: Estimate, p: Projection

Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics and the OECD. Our projections are the average of projections from the OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics, where available for each country. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC global economic network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. Note that the table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

  Current rate (Last change) Expectation Next meeting
Federal Reserve 0.00-0.25% (March 2020) No rate rise for the foreseeable future January 26-27
European Central Bank  0.00% (September 2019)  No rate rise for the foreseeable future January 21
Bank of England  0.10% (March 2020) No rate rise for the foreseeable future February 4

Chart of the month

The chart on the right shows that based on the COVID-19 vaccine supply deals agreed at the time of writing, the UK and Canada could — in a best case scenario — vaccinate the most vulnerable in their respective societies by the end of Q1 2021. However, there is no precedent for vaccination programmes of the scale, scope and duration required for the COVID-19 pandemic, which comes with many logistical challenges. In practice, distribution may not align with the projected supply, and we could see these timelines pushed out. 

Vaccination supply pipeline, based on agreed deals as at December 2020

Contact us

Jonathan Gillham

Director, Economics, PwC United Kingdom

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist

Tel: +44 (0)20 7213 1579

Hannah Audino

Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 348728

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