Global Economy Watch - Projections
Economic projections
Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.
January 2025
| Share of 2023 world GDP | Real GDP Growth | Consumer Price Inflation | ||||||||
| PPP | MER | 2024p | 2025p | 2026p | 2027-2029p | 2024p | 2025p | 2026p | 2027-2029p | |
| Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER")) | 100% | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | |
| Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) | 100% | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | |
| G7 | 29.5% | 44.8% | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| E7 | 38.6% | 28.2% | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| United States | 15.1% | 26.3% | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| China | 18.8% | 16.8% | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Japan | 3.5% | 4.0% | -0.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| United Kingdom | 2.2% | 3.2% | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Eurozone | 10.4% | 13.0% | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Germany | 3.2% | 4.3% | -0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| France | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Italy | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Spain | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Netherlands | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Ireland | 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Portugal | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Greece | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Poland | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Russia | 3.5% | 1.9% | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Türkiye | 1.8% | 1.1% | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 59.0 | 31 | 19 | 14 |
| Australia | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| India | 7.9% | 3.4% | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Indonesia | 2.4% | 1.3% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| South Korea | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Brazil | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Canada | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Mexico | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| South Africa | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Nigeria | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 32.6 | 26 | 15 | 12 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
e: Estimate, p: Projection
Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics, the OECD, EBRD and The Economist Intelligence Unit. Our projections are a weighted average of projections from these sources. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. All inflation projections refer to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unless otherwise stated. The table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios particularly for economies where there may be a high degree of volatility and uncertainty.
| Current Rate (Last Change) | Expectation | Next meeting | |
| Federal Reserve | 4.50% - 4.75% (Dec 2024) | One cut expected in H1 2025 | Mar 18-19 |
| European Central Bank | 2.90% (Jan 2025) | One more cut expected in H1 2025 | Mar 05 |
| Bank of England | 4.75% (Nov 2024) | Two cuts expected in H1 2025 | Feb 06 |
Chart of the month
In 2024, for the first time ever, over two-thirds of NATO countries are expected to meet or exceed the target of investing at least 2% of GDP on defence. This compares to only three countries at the time of the 2014 Wales Summit, when the Alliance’s then-28 leaders agreed to reverse the trend of declining defence budgets and raise them over the next decade.
Since then, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with a general perception that geopolitical volatility has increased in recent years, appears to have created a consensus amongst the world’s political leaders that Europe in particular needs to spend more on its armed forces. Many have already made significant commitments. In France, Emmanuel Macron has pledged to reach the 2% target this year. Meanwhile, Germany plans to meet the target immediately, having created a fund of $108bn to bolster its armed forces.
Number of NATO countries meeting the 2% of GDP defence spending target
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