Global Economy Watch - Projections
Economic projections
Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.
August 2022
| Share of 2021 world GDP | Real GDP growth | Consumer Price Inflation | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP | MER | 2021e | 2022p | 2023p | 2024-2027p | 2021e | 2022p | 2023p | 2024-2027p | |
| Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER")) | 100.0% | 5.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | |
| Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) | 100.0% | 6.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.9 | |
| G7 | 30.8% | 44.0% | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| E7 | 37.3% | 28.2% | 7.5 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| United States | 15.7% | 23.9% | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| China | 18.6% | 18.1% | 8.1 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 3.8% | 5.1% | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| United Kingdom | 2.3% | 3.3% | 7.4 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.1 |
| Eurozone | 10.5% | 13.2% | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| Germany | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| France | 2.3% | 3.0% | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| Italy | 1.9% | 2.2% | 6.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| Spain | 1.4% | 1.5% | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| Netherlands | 0.8% | 1.1% | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| Ireland | 0.4% | 0.5% | 13.4 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Portugal | 0.3% | 0.3% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Greece | 0.2% | 0.2% | 8.0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Poland | 1.0% | 0.7% | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 |
| Russia | 3.1% | 1.8% | 4.7 | -6.9 | -3.0 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 5.8 |
| Turkey | 2.0% | 0.8% | 11.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 19.6 | 71.1 | 35.6 | 16.6 |
| Australia | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| India | 7.0% | 3.2% | 8.8 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| Indonesia | 2.4% | 1.2% | 3.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| South Korea | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Brazil | 2.4% | 1.7% | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| Canada | 1.4% | 2.1% | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| Mexico | 1.8% | 1.3% | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| South Africa | 0.6% | 0.4% | 5.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Nigeria | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 18.1 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 11.5 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.2% | 0.9% | 3.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
e: Estimate, p: Projection
Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics, the OECD, EBRD and The Economist Intelligence Unit. Our projections are a weighted average of projections from these sources. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. All inflation projections refer to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unless otherwise stated. The table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios particularly for economies where there may be a high degree of volatility and uncertainty.
| Current rate (Last change) | Expectation | Next meeting | |
| Federal Reserve | 2.25-2.50% (July 2022) | Gradual increase in rates over 2022 | Sep 20-21 |
| European Central Bank | 0.50% (July 2022) | Gradual increase in rates over 2022 | Sep-08 |
| Bank of England | 1.75% (August 2022) | Gradual increase in rates over 2022 | Sep-15 |
Chart of the month
The chart shows the average number of days that workers across the world want to work from home once the pandemic is over and all restrictions have been lifted. On average, a third of people around the world want to work 2-3 days out of five with hybrid working arrangements.
This survey evidence demonstrates that while few workers want to give up the flexibility they have gained over the pandemic, the preferred number of days can vary considerably across countries. In particular, we see a higher preference for less working from home reported in higher income countries.
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