ETFs 2029: The path to $30 trillion

We surveyed more than 70 executives from around the world to gain deeper insight into the pace and direction of this rapidly expanding and evolving global ETF sector.

What comes through strongly from the findings is the need for continued transformation and innovation right through the value chain and product differentiation as ETF managers strive to attract their share of growing ETF inflows by distinguishing themselves in a crowded marketplace with tight margins.

Growth trends: On the path to $30 trillion in AuM by 2029

Global ETF assets under management (AuM) grew by a record 27% in 2024 to reach US$14.6 tn by the end of the year.

The mood in the market is correspondingly bullish. Nearly one in three of our survey respondents expect global ETF AUM to more than double to reach US$30 trillion over the next five years, while (60%) expect global ETF AuM to reach at least US$26 trillion by June 2029. Our paper delves into the specifics of the regional growth expectations for the United States, Europe, APAC and Canada.

Global ETF AuM growth projections ($tn) - Global ETF AUM totaled approximately $12.9 trillion as of June 30, 2024. What is your prediction for global ETF AUM by June 30, 2029?

Projected Global ETF AuM ($tn) as of 30 June 2029

^{Source: PwC Global ETF Survey 2024}

One of the key investor segments targeted for growth include the beneficiaries of the ‘great wealth transfer’. The resulting influx of young investors is triggering a generational shift in market expectations as ETF managers compete for customers who have become accustomed to high levels of tech-enabled engagement, experience and personalisation.

Product trends: Regulatory shifts spur surge in innovation

The ETF industry continues to evolve as a series of landmark regulatory developments over the past year creates new opportunities for managers to do things differently and deliver differentiated outcomes for investors.

The maturing of active ETFs across the globe is an example of one evolution happening as active ETFs’ move from niche to mainstream. In the past 12 months, active ETF AuM grew by 52% to reach US$1.03 trillion globally. Our survey respondents are confident that the active ETF market is set for further growth, with 65% of survey respondents expecting global active ETF AuM to reach at least US$3 trillion by 2029.

Global active ETF AuM growth projections for 2029 ($tn)

^{Source: PwC Global ETF Survey 2024}

The growing appetite for innovation can also be seen in the increased interest in crypto/digital asset ETFs, with one in three survey respondents planning to launch crypto/digital asset ETFs as soon as regulations allow.

The recent flurry of private credit and private equity ETF filings highlights product innovation opportunities as private markets and ETFs converge. Similar to the opportunity which crypto/digital assets offer in an ETF, retail investor may now gain access to private markets through an ETF wrapper.

Distribution trends: Disruptive tech boosts market reach

While each market continues to have its own nuances and distribution hurdles, technology distribution capabilities are breaking down barriers.

Offering products through investment apps, neo broker platforms, and other digital channels could ease some of the distribution challenges. For investors, the leading digital platforms not only offer easy access to a wide choice of ETFs, but also low and no-cost trading and gamified visualisation to aid investment choice.

In turn, continued development of artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain-enabled tokenisation and other disruptive technologies could open new direct-to-investor channels and accelerate ETF democratisation. Our survey results indicate that robo-advisors, digital platforms and apps are likely to have the most significant impact. These were closely followed by AI and machine learning. The importance of digital capabilities can only grow as ETF managers look to offer increasingly tailored solutions, while reducing costs to protect margins in today’s competitive landscape.