The takeaways
Consumer markets M&A entered 2026 with early momentum, but activity has become more concentrated. Macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical volatility, and persistent valuation gaps continue to weigh on confidence, extending deal timelines and driving discipline among buyers. The market has not stalled, but it is diverging more sharply between the assets that attract strong buyer interest and those that struggle to find bidders.
In the first half of 2026, megadeals (transactions valued at more than $5bn) have supported deal value despite a decline in activity across all consumer sectors. Based on activity through May 2026, overall deal volumes are on track to decline by 12% in 2026, while deal values are down only 3%, supported by a small number of large transactions such as McCormick’s proposed $44.8bn combination with Unilever’s food business. Megadeals now account for 47% of consumer markets’ deal value, up from 39% in 2025 and 23% in 2024. The share has doubled over two years, pointing to a market in which large, high-conviction transactions are still getting done, while the mid-market remains more constrained. This mirrors the K-shaped M&A dynamics we discuss in our broader mid-year deals outlook.
This polarisation is shaping the outlook for the second half of the year. Buyers are focused on resilient assets offering category leadership, access to attractive consumer demand pools, stronger consumer relationships, or greater control over supply chains. At the same time, portfolio reviews, take-private opportunities, succession planning, and the potential easing of private equity exit backlogs could create a broader pipeline of assets for dealmakers that are prepared to act.
‘There is less room for average in consumer M&A. Companies that are not obvious must-have assets need to refocus their portfolios, improve execution, and make the deal thesis easier for buyers to underwrite. Importantly, they also need to be realistic on value.’
Hervé Roesch,Global Consumer Markets Deals Leader, PwC UKConsumer markets dealmaking is highly sensitive to shifts in confidence, disposable income, and the cost of capital. Geopolitical tensions, trade disruption, and sustained inflation are continuing to influence consumer behaviour and challenge business performance. For buyers, that makes it harder to assess growth potential. For sellers, it makes it harder to defend value expectations.
The result is a more cautious market, particularly outside the largest transactions. Deal processes are taking longer as buyers scrutinise growth assumptions, margin durability, and execution risk. Private equity firms also continue to face pressure on exits, with valuation gaps and a slower IPO market limiting routes to liquidity. That is weighing on deal flow, especially in the mid-market.
That caution has not stopped dealmaking. Public-to-private transactions remain an active part of the market as financial sponsors look for consumer businesses they believe are undervalued by public markets.
In the current dealmaking environment, the strongest assets give buyers a specific reason to act. That may be a leading brand, science-backed claims, or exposure to growth areas such as health and wellness. It may also come from serving consumers at the premium end of the market, or through scale and efficiency at the value end.
Scale still matters, but the strongest deal rationales are more specific than size alone: category expansion, customer access, stronger channels, and greater control over supply chains. Assets that support these priorities can still attract capital. Those that cannot may need to sharpen their deal thesis before going to market.
While buyers remain selective, several structural forces could expand the supply of assets coming to market. Corporate portfolio reviews are continuing as companies sharpen where they can win, which categories still fit, and where capital can be better deployed. That is extending divestiture activity into areas that were previously more insulated, including parts of beverages, luxury, and other consumer subsectors where growth, margin, or strategic fit are being reassessed.
Pressure is also building in parts of the market that relied on assumptions made in a very different environment. Some private equity-owned assets are reaching the limits of holding-period extensions, while overleveraged businesses and weaker operators are facing higher financing costs, changing consumer behaviour, and new sources of competition. These changes may create additional opportunities for distressed M&A, particularly for buyers with the capital and operational capability to manage special situations.
AI is also influencing the sector, even if it is not yet a primary driver of deal theses. It is changing how consumers discover products, compare options, and make purchases while raising the value of proprietary data, loyalty programmes, and direct customer relationships. That puts more pressure on consumer companies to modernise channels, strengthen data foundations, and protect access to the customer.
Succession is another important source of future supply for dealmakers. Across many markets, a generation of founder-led and family-owned businesses is approaching transition, creating opportunities for investors to bring long-term capital, operational expertise, and strategy support. The pipeline may take time to develop, but we expect to see more assets coming to market from owners seeking simplification, liquidity, or succession solutions. For dealmakers, the advantage will go to those who identify potential targets early, build relationships before assets come to market, and develop a value creation plan before competitive processes begin. As more opportunities emerge from carve-outs, restructurings, consolidations, and succession situations, execution capability will matter as much as deal appetite.
Global consumer markets M&A activity has slowed in 2026, but deal values have been supported by a small number of large transactions, with four megadeals announced in the first five months. Based on activity through May 2026, deal volumes are on track to decline by 12% in 2026, and deal values are estimated to fall by 2%. The year-on-year trend is distorted by the comparison with 2025, when a proposed $85bn rail merger that has not yet cleared regulatory approvals significantly lifted deal value in the transportation and logistics sector. Excluding that transaction, 2026 deal value would be on track to rise by 17%, showing that large, strategic transactions are still being executed even as overall activity declines.
Regionally, the slowdown is broad-based but uneven. EMEA continues to account for the largest share of global consumer markets deal volume at an estimated 42% in 2026, but as of the first half of 2026, it is experiencing the largest decline in deal activity, with volumes down 16%, compared with declines of 12% in the Americas and 6% in Asia Pacific.
Deal values tell a more nuanced story. Deal value in the Americas is expected to decline by 26% in 2026, but excluding the rail merger highlighted above, it is expected to be flat. Deal value in Asia Pacific is expected to fall by 3%, while deal value in EMEA is expected to rise by 53%, supported by the McCormick-Unilever deal. The regional data points to lower activity but a continued appetite for large strategic deals in the Americas and EMEA.
Consumer M&A is likely to remain constrained, but opportunities are still emerging for buyers with focus and conviction. Dealmakers should focus on early origination, pressure-test the value creation plan before approaching targets, and be ready to move when must-have assets come to market.