Concentrating on the future

For millennia, mining has been the literal bedrock of the global economy. And as industries continue to evolve in the 21st century, mining’s connection to every endeavour of human activity becomes even more apparent. Fundamental changes are afoot in the global economy, spurred by megatrends such as urbanisation and the transitions in energy and technology. A fragmented world and geopolitical tensions are continually reshaping value chains and risk in unpredictable ways. These forces are transforming vertical industries and ecosystems with linear value chains into domains centred on fundamental human needs: how we move, how we make and build things, how we feed and care for ourselves, and how we fuel and power society. Demand for the products mined from the earth is rising, thanks to all these changes. And the same transformational forces are placing an immense amount of value in motion. 

Except for gold miners, 2024 was a challenging year for the mining industry: revenues and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) for the top 40 global mining companies (excluding gold-focused firms) were down 3% and 10%, respectively. Record gold prices meant that gold revenues increased by 15%, while gold EBITDA rose to 32% as a result of operating leverage. Rising costs resulted in a decrease in EBITDA margins to 22% from 24% in 2023. The increase in gold capital expenditures and distributions to shareholders also masks the decreases experienced by non-gold companies.  

In this year’s report, we focus on the role that mining plays in the expanding and interlocking domains of human activity. We examine the ways that value is being put into motion, as megatrends—and the responses to them—dictate developments in supply, demand and investment. We shine a particular light on commodity concentration in the industry—the degree to which reserves and production vary on a geographic basis today, making some regions highly dominant. The interplay of concentration risk and other megatrends is forging new supply chains, dictating national strategy, inspiring new forms of collaboration and creating new value pools. And, as we consider the coming decade, we also examine how the powerful forces shaping our world will transform the mining industry through 2035.  

2024 financial snapshot

As the chart below shows, mining creates inputs into each of the six key domains of growth. 

Some mined commodities feed only one or two domains. And some domains are disproportionately reliant on one or two commodities. But increasingly, we see broader roles and opportunities for the mining industry as value is put into motion.

Fuel and Power. Despite significant growth in renewable energy sources, coal accounted for 35% of total electricity generated in 2024, and nuclear power (which relies on uranium) accounted for 10%Opens in a new window. Mining also plays a pivotal role in supplying the essential minerals needed for renewable energy and storage technologies, as well as transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Move. Platinum-group metals (PGMs) have traditionally been used in auto catalysts to reduce the emissions of internal combustion engines. This role may decline as new mobility technologies are adopted. But the electrification of mobility is also a key driver of commodity demand. The development of battery storage technologies is increasing demand for lithium, cobalt, phosphate, nickel and manganese.

Feed. As the need for food continues to rise with population growth and urbanisation, extracted materials such as fertilisers will be even more crucial to improve soil health and boost agricultural yields. Phosphate is essential in producing phosphorus-based fertilisers, which underpin global grain and vegetable production. Potassium salts are used to produce fertilisers that improve drought resistance and are essential for global food crops such as wheat, corn, soybeans and rice. 

Care. In the healthcare sector, mining’s role goes far beyond the gold and silver found in dental fillings. The industry provides essential minerals and resources used in the research and development of medical equipment and devices, as well as their production. Titanium, cobalt, PGMs and nickel are used in the manufacture of surgical tools, implants, prosthetics, dental drills and other instruments. Uranium plays a vital role in the production of medical radioisotopes used in advanced imaging equipment such as MRI machines and CT scanners.

Build. Steel (iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal), copper, aluminium, zinc, tin and nickel are all needed for the construction of buildings in urban environments. Aggregates such as limestone for cement, stone, clay and sand are vital for roads, bridges, buildings and other construction projects.

Make. Virtually all manufactured goods contain inputs from mining. Gold is used in discretionary luxury items such as jewelry. Stainless steel is a key input for devices big and small, from kitchen appliances to massive industrial equipment. And a range of metals are deployed in the manufacture of aircraft, space technology and defence systems.

Cross-domain opportunities

The growth of the domains also offers potential for mining companies to become involved in other industries that help mines operate more effectively. These efforts often result in economic development initiatives that provide benefits to the climate, and to broader society. We have seen this particularly in the domains involving energy and construction: Fuel and Power, and Build.

• As they pursue energy security and climate goals, miners are investing in emissions-free electricity production. Fortescue, a large producer of iron ore, in April 2024 announced a joint ventureOpens in a new window with OCP Group to create a green energy hub in Morocco. China’s Zijin Mining Group is developing renewable projects such as photovoltaic and wind farms at its mining and smelter sites.

• In May 2024, work began on the Trans-Guinean RailwayOpens in a new window, a joint initiative between the Guinean government, Rio Tinto and Chalco Iron Ore Holdings. It will connect the Simandou iron ore deposits with a port to be built on Matakong, an island just off the coast, near the border with Sierra Leone. The primary objective of the line is the transport of iron ore, but the project also includes the provision of passenger services and a strategic corridor for Mali, Burkina Faso and cities in northern Nigeria. 

Concentration risk arises from two forces, one natural and one human-made. The natural endowment of mineral resources cannot be changed. Increased exploration and new technologies might identify resources in different territories, but they cannot relocate resources or create new reserves. Production and processing endowment, by contrast, is reliant on such factors as the availability of financing and government policies. As a result, over the years, we’ve seen a rise in the concentration of both reserves and production—as well as the development of substantial mismatches between the two (see charts, below).

China has by far the highest mineral concentration of any country. It’s responsible for more than 50% of production for 18 minerals, and it has a greater-than-10% concentration of reserves for a further 35 minerals. The next-richest is the US, which produces more than 50% of seven minerals and has a greater-than-10% concentration of reserves of a further 12 minerals. Processing for many minerals is also highly concentrated in China, even those minerals of which China is not the primary producer. In this chart, we show the concentration of both reserves and production for seven key mining outputs: cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, nickel, PGMs and rare earth elements (REEs). 

Each of the outputs has a distinct concentration profile that presents challenges and opportunities. For example:

• The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for 76% of global mined cobalt, whose most important use is in batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) and portable electronics. Pricing has been volatile as the DRC has boosted supply above the growth of demand. China is the leading consumer of cobalt (representing 80% of global demand) and is the main producer of refined cobalt. China also has the highest foreign share of mining assets in the DRC, having provided infrastructure investment in exchange for access to minerals.

• Each of the 17 rare earth elements—essential components in electronics, defence and a wide array of other industrial applications—has its own supply dynamics. China accounts for 69% of global mine production and 92% of processing, the most processing concentration of any energy transition mineral. In April 2025, in response to US tariffs, China placed export restrictions on rare earths, permanent magnets and other finished goods that use rare earth inputs.

• Uranium is a key input to nuclear energy, which has gained renewed momentum. In 2024, Kazakhstan produced the largest share of uranium from mines (38% of world supply). Production in Kazakhstan often involves Russian ownership, which has become a concern amid sanctions levied in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. In addition, about 40% of uranium enrichment takes place in Russia. 

• The mining of manganese, used in steel manufacturing and a variety of other applications such as metallurgical processes, batteries, fertiliser and animal feed, is concentrated in three countries: South Africa (37%), Gabon (23%) and Australia (14%). Each has seen climate-related supply disruptions in recent years: mines in Gabon have been affected by a landslide on a key rail line, a mine in Australia was closed due to a cyclone and flooding, and mines in South Africa have had to contend with maintenance challenges, extreme weather, and poor infrastructure conditions.

Responses to concentration risk

We’re highlighting concentration risk for several reasons. The concentration of mining and processing in a small number of geographies creates the risk that global supply and prices will be affected by location-specific challenges such as natural disasters, wars, social unrest, political or regulatory changes, and infrastructure failures. Copper spot prices, for example, hit an all-time high after the US announced in February 2025 that it was investigating the possibility of adding tariffs, and US copper importers rushed to stockpile the metal. In addition, established mining and processing territories can deter diversification investment by supplying sufficient quantities of material to keep prices low. Other countries and territories are responding to these issues through new investments, technological innovations and government actions, all of which are increasingly putting value in motion. 

Indonesia’s nickel moves

Indonesia represents around 40% of global reserves of nickel and 53% of production. Nickel is in high demand because of its application in stainless steel and in EV batteries. Through policy measures, Indonesia has changed the way value is created in its domestic nickel industry. To encourage both foreign and direct investment, the government, in 2014, began to institute various levels of nickel ore export limitations, including a complete ban on low-grade nickel exports starting in 2019. The result has been a boom in processing capacity. Chinese and German investors, in particular, have contributed to the establishment of smelters and high-tech processing facilities. This move has not only increased the value of Indonesia’s exports but also enhanced the industry’s economic impact. 

Fuelled by more than US$1.6 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) and US$761 million in domestic direct investment (DDI) between 2019 and 2024, the number of smelters in Indonesia rose from two in 2016 to more than 60 by 2024. Initially, these smelters focused on producing ferronickel, or ‘nickel pig iron,’ for stainless steel production. However, they have since expanded to produce nickel matte and other intermediate products that can be further refined into Class 1 nickel, an essential component for EV battery cathodes. 

Indonesia has rapidly advanced its nickel processing capabilities by establishing several high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants, such as QMB New Energy Materials, Huayue Nickel and Cobalt (HNC), and PT Halmahera Persada Lygend. These plants enable the conversion of nickel ore into mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), which can be refined into Class 1 nickel. Aided by Chinese technology, Indonesia has built this infrastructure with lower capital costs and shorter ramp-up periods compared with traditional HPAL facilities in other regions. The investment and growth have brought challenges, including environmental degradation and concerns over occupational hazards and labour issues. But the efficiency and cost-effectiveness have positioned Indonesia as a formidable player in the global nickel market, particularly for the EV industry.

M&A plays an essential role in the mining industry, allowing companies to secure critical resources, consolidate supply chains and align with the global energy/technology transition. The number and volume of deals both fell in 2024, with energy transition minerals accounting for a smaller share of activity than in years past. If a single big transaction in each year is excluded, deal value maintains a mostly steady trend. 

As mining companies explore and benefit from the new domains of growth, deal flow in the sector will continue to be strong, but will not lack headwinds. Several key themes are evident. 

If mining companies are to create value for stakeholders in the emerging world of domains, they need to future-proof their businesses. In this capital-intensive industry, with its long life cycles, firms must make decisions well in advance in order to ensure they are best placed to take advantage of the opportunities and mitigate the risks invariably created by change. Just as our colleagues within PwC envisioned a series of scenarios for what the world might look like in 2035, we’ve imagined how the same powerful creative forces might affect the mining world in 2035. We created a framework of seven key future forces/influences and their resultant impact on the industry of the future.

Some of the key findings are presented in the table below.

The 2035 view

Several key trends will influence the trajectory of the mining industry in the coming decade. 

Population growth. The urban population is expected to more than double by 2050, at which point nearly seven in ten people will live in cities. And as global economies grow, the per capita demand for commodities will also increase despite more efficient use and higher recycling levels. The result will be a mounting appreciation of the need for a greater supply of minerals. 

Energy transition. The energy transition is a key driver of critical mineral demand. In response, significant new supply is expected to come on stream or to be in development.

Environmental impact. For people to live in more extreme weather conditions, energy needs—for example, to power air conditioning, heating and the pumping of water—will grow significantly. Growing energy needs increase demand for the underlying commodities. Climate risks present higher costs and challenges to supply, as droughts, floods and rising sea levels affect the logistics of mining operations. Given the prospect of further climate change, arctic waterways are expected to be open year-round and would be the fastest route from China to Europe. Arctic nations like Canada and the US are more focused on growing infrastructure and military presence in the region, which could remove barriers to mining there.

Technology, innovation and automation. Advancements will improve mining equipment performance, allowing for higher output with reduced resource consumption and improved safety. Unstaffed autonomous vehicles in remote operations will reduce operator risk, improve productivity and increase equipment operational uptime. Due to the capital-intensive, long-life-cycle nature of mining, large-scale changes will first be implemented at new mines. Existing mines will consider specific areas of adoption where it makes economic sense.

Human capital. A substantial portion of traditional mining jobs will be augmented or replaced by technology—with remote operations employing data scientists, AI and specialists to complement field labour. Workers will need to transition into higher-skilled positions overseeing automated systems. Increased use of technology will result in more office-based work than on-site work and a reduced focus on physical strength. The appeal of working in a high-tech industry, increased safety and greater ability to work remotely or from offices will all make mining more appealing to a younger and more diverse workforce. 

Access to funding. The profile of mining investors is set to evolve significantly by 2035. As market dynamics shift, investor composition will continue to diversify, comprising both public- and private-sector participants. Although these groups remain essential for securing sufficient investment, future investors may include those not active in the mining sector today, potentially broadening the overall investment base. 

Government policy and regulation. Targeted and collaborative government regulation and policy will be essential in shaping a sustainable and prosperous global mining sector through 2035 and beyond. Resource nationalism will take precedence over optimised supply chains in a geopolitically risky world. We do not believe that the current drive for security of supply will be reversed by 2035. 

One thing is clear. Regardless of how events unfold in the coming decade, collaboration will be the order of the day—in 2025, in 2030 and in 2035. As we survey the industry today, collaboration opportunities are present everywhere. 

Miners can support the downstream research, development and commercialisation of their products, like the PGM producers supporting hydrogen initiatives. They can collaborate with host communities and government to improve mutually beneficial infrastructure such as transport, water, electricity, education and healthcare to strengthen mines’ long-term sustainability. They can partner with universities and education institutions to encourage the digital natives of generation Z (born between 1995 and 2009) and generation alpha (between 2010 and 2024) to become part of the mining industry.

As they confront systemic change and concentration risk, strategic leaders will have to adjust their mindset to mine for value and growth in adjacent domains, and to harness the innovations that they can apply to traditional operations—wherever they can be uncovered.

Mine 2025 writing team

The writing of Mine 2025 was led by Andries Rossouw (PwC South Africa), Germán Millán (PwC Chile) and Franz Wentzel (PwC Australia). Core members of the writing team were Matt Williams (project lead, PwC United Kingdom), Swapnil Gupta (PwC India), Mary Kwarteng-Darko (PwC Ghana), Danelle Lombard (PwC South Africa), Cameron McKee (PwC Australia), Gabriela Moquillaza (PwC Chile), Wynand Oosthuizen (PwC South Africa), Carlos Rivas (PwC Chile), Isakh Salomon (PwC Indonesia), Gemma Stanton-Hagan (PwC Canada) and Sara Vasquez Grandez (PwC Peru).