Glimmers amid the gloom

This report was produced in co-operation with the Economist Intelligence Unit and provides an overview of how the downturn has affected six retail and consumer-products sub-sectors in emerging markets and their outlook for the medium term. The sectors covered include food and general retail, fashion and apparel, fast-food restaurants, fast moving consumer goods, luxury goods and consumer durables and electronics. Some of the report's findings include:

  • Worldwide retail sales are pegged to go from a decline of 2.9% in 2009 to a slight increase of 1.4% in 2010 and a further increase of 2.5% in 2011: good news.
  • FMCG brands are gaining strength in Asia, and the trend there and in Latin America is to penetrate deeper and reach lower-income consumers. This segment is facing considerable pressure from retailers’ push to private-label brands.
  • Asian retail sales will be less affected by the global financial crisis. It is the most exciting growth region for apparel retailers and growth in the food and beverage sector will be sluggish in 2009 but rebound in 2010.
  • Sales of luxury goods have tumbled in CEE and Russia and, with the exception of TV and computers, demand for electric appliances and household audio and video is generally depressed. On a more positive note, Russia and Turkey are the focus for international restaurant chains in the CEE region.
  • In Latin America, shoppers are trading down and looking for bargains; some leading brands are suffering. The market for luxury goods is expected to continue expanding but at a slower pace.