Global Economy Watch - Projections

Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections.

May 2023

	Share of 2022 world GDP		Real GDP Growth			Consumer Price Inflation
	PPP	MER	2023p	2024p	2025-2028p	2023p	2024p	2025-2028p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))		100%	2.4	2.3	2.6	4.6	3.1	2.5
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate)	100%		2.8	2.8	2.9	4.6	3.1	2.5
G7	30.4%	43.7%	1.0	0.9	1.7	4.6	2.4	2.0
E7	37.3%	29.2%	4.5	4.4	4.0	4.3	3.9	3.2

United States	15.6%	25.4%	1.3	0.9	1.9	4.3	2.5	2.1
China	18.5%	18.1%	5.5	4.9	4.3	1.8	2.2	2.3
Japan	3.8%	4.2%	1.1	1.1	0.7	2.7	1.7	1.4
United Kingdom	2.3%	3.1%	0.4	1.0	1.6	7.0	3.0	2.0
Eurozone	10.5%	12.2%	0.8	1.2	1.6	5.4	2.7	1.9
Germany	3.3%	4.1%	-0.1	1.1	1.6	6.3	2.8	2.0
France	2.3%	2.8%	0.6	1.0	1.5	5.2	2.5	1.8
Italy	1.9%	2.0%	0.9	0.7	1.1	5.5	2.2	1.9
Spain	1.4%	1.4%	1.7	1.7	1.9	4.1	2.7	1.8
Netherlands	0.8%	1.0%	1.2	1.1	1.6	4.1	3.6	2.0
Ireland	0.4%	0.5%	4.8	3.5	2.6	4.9	2.8	1.9
Portugal	0.3%	0.3%	1.1	1.7	1.9	5.5	2.6	2.0
Greece	0.2%	0.2%	2.1	1.8	1.5	4.1	2.4	1.8
Poland	1.0%	0.7%	0.5	2.9	3.4	12.3	6.3	3.0
Russia	2.9%	2.2%	0.0	1.3	1.1	5.5	4.5	4.0
Turkey	2.1%	0.9%	2.3	3.1	2.6	45.8	31.0	16.2
Australia	1.0%	1.7%	1.5	1.9	2.6	5.3	2.9	2.6
India	7.3%	3.4%	5.6	6.2	6.2	5.2	4.7	4.6
Indonesia	2.5%	1.3%	4.8	4.9	5.0	4.0	3.3	3.3
South Korea	1.7%	1.7%	1.4	2.4	2.2	3.4	2.1	1.9
Brazil	2.3%	1.9%	1.2	1.8	2.7	5.2	4.4	3.1
Canada	1.4%	2.1%	1.3	1.4	1.9	3.7	2.1	1.9
Mexico	1.8%	1.4%	2.0	1.8	2.0	5.8	4.1	3.1
South Africa	0.6%	0.4%	0.3	1.8	1.9	5.8	4.8	4.6
Nigeria	0.8%	0.5%	3.0	2.9	2.8	19.5	14.5	11.1
Saudi Arabia	1.3%	1.1%	2.8	3.0	2.5	2.7	2.3	1.7

e: Estimate, p: Projection

Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics, the OECD, EBRD and The Economist Intelligence Unit. Our projections are a weighted average of projections from these sources. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. All inflation projections refer to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unless otherwise stated. The table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios particularly for economies where there may be a high degree of volatility and uncertainty.

	Current rate (Last change)	Expectation	Next meeting
Federal Reserve	5.00 - 5.25% (May 2023)	Rising to between 5.0% and 5.5%	Jun 13-14
European Central Bank	3.75% (May 2023)	Rising to between 3.75% and 4.25%	Jun-15
Bank of England	4.5% (May 2023)	Rising to between 4.5% and 5.0%	Jun-22

Chart of the month

China has been the world’s most populated country for several centuries. But in 2023 India is expected to reach an important milestone and overtake China as the world’s most populated country.

Today, China’s economy is almost three times larger than India’s (in PPPs) while the US is more than double its size. However, India’s rapidly growing population will help it close these gaps, with India set to account for close to a quarter of the increase in the world’s working age population in 2023. In 2017 we predicted in our World in 2050 report that India would overtake the US as the world’s second largest economy over the next 30 years.

India will overtake China as the world's most populated country in 2023

2025 projections
Interest rate outlook of major economies

November 2025

	Share of 2023 world GDP		GDP growth			Inflation
	PPP	MER	2025p	2026p	2027 - 2029p	2025p	2026p	2027 - 2029p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))		100%	2.6	2.5	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.4
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate)	100%		3.1	2.9	3.0	2.7	2.5	2.4
G7	29.7%	43.8%	1.5	1.6	1.8	2.7	2.3	2.1
E7	38.0%	29.0%	4.3	4.0	3.9	2.6	2.6	2.7
United States	15.0%	25.5%	1.9	2.0	2.2	2.9	2.6	2.2
China	18.8%	18.0%	4.9	4.4	3.8	0.0	0.6	1.2
Japan	3.5%	4.2%	1.1	0.6	0.6	3.1	2.1	1.8
United Kingdom	2.3%	3.1%	1.4	1.2	1.8	3.4	2.5	2.0
Eurozone	10.6%	12.3%	1.4	1.2	1.4	2.0	1.9	2.0
Germany	3.3%	4.1%	0.2	1.1	1.5	2.2	1.9	2.0
France	2.3%	2.7%	0.8	0.9	1.3	1.2	1.6	1.9
Italy	1.9%	2.1%	0.5	0.8	0.9	1.6	1.9	2.0
Spain	1.4%	1.4%	2.9	2.1	1.7	2.5	2.1	2.1
Netherlands	0.8%	1.0%	1.5	1.1	1.4	3.0	2.3	2.0
Ireland	0.4%	0.5%	11.6	1.8	2.4	1.8	1.8	1.8
Portugal	0.3%	0.3%	1.9	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.0	2.0
Greece	0.2%	0.2%	2.0	2.1	1.8	2.4	2.2	2.2
Poland	1.0%	0.7%	3.3	3.2	3.1	3.9	2.9	2.6
Russia	3.5%	2.3%	0.8	1.0	1.7	8.1	5.5	4.6
Türkiye	1.7%	0.9%	3.4	3.3	3.2	35	25	22
Australia	1.0%	1.7%	1.6	2.1	2.4	2.6	3.0	2.4
India	7.6%	3.3%	6.6	6.2	6.7	2.4	4.0	4.0
Indonesia	2.3%	1.3%	4.9	5.0	5.0	1.9	2.8	2.6
South Korea	1.7%	1.8%	0.9	1.6	1.7	2.0	1.9	1.9
Brazil	2.4%	1.9%	2.2	1.6	2.5	5.0	3.9	3.2
Canada	1.4%	2.1%	1.2	1.4	1.8	2.0	2.1	2.0
Mexico	1.7%	1.4%	0.7	1.4	2.6	3.8	3.6	3.3
South Africa	0.5%	0.4%	1.1	1.4	1.7	3.3	3.6	3.1
Nigeria	0.8%	0.5%	3.8	4.1	4.2	22	19	13
Saudi Arabia	1.1%	1.1%	4.3	4.3	3.7	2.1	2.1	2.2

e: Estimate, p: Projection

Sources: PwC UK and global analysis, national statistical authorities, EIKON from Refinitiv, IMF, Consensus Economics, the OECD, and Fitch Solutions. Our projections are a weighted average of projections from these sources. They also incorporate inputs from select teams across the PwC network. ‘MER’ refers to market exchange rates and ‘PPP’ is purchasing power parity. All inflation projections refer to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unless otherwise stated.

The table above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. These projections do not consider the recent changes to the international trading system announced on and subsequent to 2nd April, 2025. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios particularly for economies where there may be a high degree of volatility and uncertainty.

	Current Rate (Last Change)	Expectation	Next meeting
Federal Reserve	4.00% - 4.25% (May 2025)	At least one more cut expected in the next 6 months	December 9-10
European Central Bank	2.00% (June 2025)	At least one more cut expected in the next 6 months	December 17-18
Bank of England	4.00% (August 2025)	At least one more cut expected in the next 6 months	December 18

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Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)20 7213 1579

Jake Finney

Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 440369

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Daniel Gross

Director, PwC US

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