Global telecoms industry revenue rose 4.3% in 2023 to hit US$1.1 trillion, but faces continuing headwinds – even as 5G subscriptions are projected to quadruple by 2028

• Global telecoms revenues projected to rise at a CAGR of 2.9% through 2028, below inflation, with $200 billion in incremental revenue growth up for grabs by 2028
• Sectors total revenue across fixed and mobile rose 4.3% in 2023 to US$1.1 trillion
• 5G revenue remains muted, but subscriptions projected to more than quadruple, from 1.79 billion in 2023 to 7.51 billion in 2028
• Cellular internet-of-things (IoT) services to be buoyed by automotive sector, with sector IoT revenue projected to more than double and hit $34.1 billion in 2028, at a CAGR of 15.8%
• Industry must reinvent how it creates, delivers and captures value – including strategic investments in AI, fixed connectivity, digital infrastructure and working with investors and regulators to unlock growth

LONDON, 28 February 2025 – Global telecoms revenue is projected to rise at a CAGR of 2.9% through to 2028, below inflation, even as the sectors total revenue across fixed and mobile verticals rose 4.3% in 2023 to hit US$1.1 trillion, according to PwC’s Global Telecoms Outlook, published today ahead of Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain (3-6 March 2025).

The Outlook finds that the telecoms industry faces a sluggish outlook amid rising costs and competition, muted subscriber growth, and lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. Despite their being volume growth in the sector, average revenue per unit (ARPU) is expected to decline on average 2% annually until 2028, across mobile, fixed broadband, and voice services.¹

But while the Outlook points to a challenging environment in need of re-invention, wide variation exists in the growth outlook between services and markets. For instance, fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions are projected to grow annually by 3.8% and 4.3% until 2028, respectively, while fixed voice subscriptions are expected to decline by 1.8%. Across geographies, fixed subscriptions are projected to grow between 0-6% -- with higher growth markets including India (17.2%), Nigeria (9.2%) and Malaysia (9%).

Dr. Florian Gröne, Global Telecoms Leader, PwC US, said:

5G subscriptions projected to quadruple as capital shifts to fixed connectivity

Despite sluggish uptake in 5G services to-date, subscriptions for the service are expected to more than quadruple, from 1.79 billion in 2023 to 7.51 billion in 2028, with its share of total mobile subscriptions more than tripling, from 18.8% in 2023 to 64.1% in 2028. At this rate, 5G is expected to become the dominant mobile standard from 2026. One particular application is Fixed-Wireless Access (FWA) – which is projected to be the fastest growing broadband technology to 2028, rising at a CAGR of 18.3%.

Against this backdrop, momentum of capital is shifting decisively towards fixed connectivity – or fibre. In 2023, total telecom capex fell 2.3%, driven by a 5.7% decline in mobile. However, industry capex is projected to grow at a 2.4% CAGR from 2024, fuelled initially by fixed broadband investments for fibre roll-out, and later in the period by a revival in mobile CapEx as operators prepare for 6G.

Automotive and mobility sector to power cellular internet-of-things (IoT) services

Driven in large part by increased adoption of smart automobiles and the mobility sector, cellular internet-of-things (IoT) services has emerged as an industry bright spot across all regions. Overall, IoT revenue in the automotive sector is projected to more than double between 2023 and 2028 to reach US$34.1 billion, rising at a CAGR of 15.8%.

The AI imperative

As new and emerging technologies transform industry, fuel demand for connectivity services and digital infrastructure and investment, AI presents a significant opportunity for the telecoms industry, but one that still remains under-utilised. At the consumer level, AI tools and capabilities can also help telcos deliver personalised customer experiences, boosted workforce productivity and deployment, and AI-powered cognitive network operations centres (NOCs) that provide actionable insights and efficiencies in real time.

Wilson Chow, Global TMT Lead & China AI Lead, PwC China, said: 

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¹ Telecoms service ARPU will continue to decline over the next five years, with mobile ARPU falling at a CAGR of –1.3%, and fixed broadband ARPU essentially flat at a CAGR of –0.1%.