Global Economy Watch - Projections

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Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.
 

July 2019

  Share of 2017 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation 
  PPP MER 2018e 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p 2018e 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))   100.0% 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.6
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) 100.0%   3.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.0
G7 30.6% 46.0% 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.0
E7 37.6% 26.6% 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7
                     
United States 15.3% 24.3% 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.7 2.2
China 18.2% 15.0% 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9
Japan 4.3% 6.1% 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.2
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.3% 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0
Eurozone 10.2% 13.9% 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.0
France 2.2% 3.2% 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.9
Germany 3.3% 4.6% 1.4 0.7 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.3
Greece 0.2% 0.3% 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 6.8 3.4 3.7 3.0 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.9
Italy 1.8% 2.4% 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.7
Netherlands 0.7% 1.0% 2.5 1.6 2.3 1.9 1.7 2.3 1.5 2.0
Spain 1.4% 1.6% 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.9
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 5.2 3.8 3.0 3.0 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.5
Russia 3.2% 1.9% 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.7
Turkey 1.7% 1.1% 0.4 -1.5 2.6 2.4 16.3 17.1 13.9 13.0
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5
India 7.4% 3.3% 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 2.1 4.2 4.8 5.0
Indonesia 2.6% 1.3% 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.0
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.0
Brazil 2.6% 2.6% 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.2 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0
Canada 1.4% 2.1% 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.9
Mexico 1.9% 1.4% 2.1 1.8 2.7 2.7 4.8 3.2 2.7 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 5.3 4.6 4.8 5.5
Nigeria 0.9% 0.5% 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.5 16.3 12.4 11.7 14.0
Saudi Arabia 1.4% 0.9% 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.1 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. UK and Ireland numbers are contingent on a reasonably smooth Brexit.

Interest rate outlook of major economies

July 2019

 

Current rate (Last change)

Expectation

Next meeting

Federal Reserve

2.25 - 2.5% (December 2018)

A single rate cut in the second half of 2019

July 30-31

European Central Bank

0.00% (March 2016)

No rate change in 2019


July 25

Bank of England

0.75% (August 2018)

No rate change in 2019

August 1

Chart of the month

July 2019

Since the financial crisis a decade ago, public debt held by emerging markets has grown faster than GDP in every region of the world, according to World Bank data. This rise is only marginal in the case of Europe, but is much clearer in Asian, African and Latin American economies.

A decade of low interest rates has led to greater borrowing, especially for long-term infrastructure projects. However, the IMF suggests spending has risen on social programmes among middle-income countries and on interest payments among low-income economies. Both groups have seen public investment fall as a proportion of GDP.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

Contact us

Mike Jakeman

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 361717

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