Global Economy Watch - Projections

 

Economic projections: August 2017

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.

 

 

 

  Share of 2016 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation
  PPP MER 2017p 2018p 2019-2023p 2017p 2018p 2019-2023p
Global (Market Exchange Rates)   100.0% 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5
Global (PPP rates) 100.0%   3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.9
G7 31.5% 46.4% 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
E7 36.2% 25.9% 5.3 5.2 4.9 3.3 3.3 3.6
                 
United States 15.8% 24.5% 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0
China 17.3% 15.2% 6.6 6.2 5.7 2.0 2.2 2.8
Japan 4.2% 5.6% 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.5
United Kingdom 2.4% 3.9% 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.8 2.9 2.3
Eurozone 12.0% 15.8% 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5
France 2.3% 3.3% 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.5
Germany 3.4% 4.6% 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.8
Greece 0.3% 0.3% 1.2 2.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 3.8 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 1.5
Italy 1.9% 2.5% 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Netherlands 0.7% 1.0% 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.7
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% 2.6 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.4
Spain 1.4% 1.6% 3.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.2 1.2
Poland 0.9% 0.6% 3.4 3.3 3.5 1.8 2.0 2.4
Russia 3.3% 1.8% 1.3 1.4 1.5 4.2 4.0 4.0
Turkey 1.4% 1.0% 3.0 3.2 3.4 10.0 8.1 7.0
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.5
India 7.0% 2.8% 7.3 7.5 6.5 4.8 4.9 5.0
Indonesia 2.5% 1.2% 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.5 4.4 5.1
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.6 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.8 3.3
Argentina 0.8% 0.9% 2.6 2.8 3.0 25.0 - -
Brazil 2.8% 2.4% 0.4 1.5 2.6 4.2 4.5 4.5
Canada 1.4% 2.1% 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
Mexico 2.0% 1.6% 1.7 2.0 1.9 4.0 3.5 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.8 1.2 3.0 6.1 5.8 5.5
Nigeria 1.0% 0.7% 0.7 1.8 4.2 15.0 14.1 12.0
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 0.9% 0.2 1.0 3.5 3.5 4.8 2.5

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Argentina has recently launched a new CPI measure, which only contains data from April 2016. Therefore we only project inflation for 2017, and will provide 2018 and 2019-2023 projections once a longer series is available. Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. 

 

Interest rate outlook of major economies 

  Current rate (Last change) Expectation Next meeting
Federal Reserve 1.25% (June 2017) Further gradual tightening in the next two quarters 19 – 20 September
European Central Bank 0.00% (March 2016) No rate rise for the foreseeable future 7 September
Bank of England 0.25% (August 2016) No change in rates expected in the short-term 14 September

 

 

 

Chart of the month

Recent analysis from the OECD highlights the contrasting fortunes across cities of different sizes in China - larger cities tend to be more wealthy and productive.

You can find out more on the importance of cities to the global economy in our Cities of Opportunity report. We also rank the top 30 global cities driving innovation, prosperity and growth.



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Barret Kupelian
Senior Economist
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James Loughridge
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