Global Economy Watch - Projections

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Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.
 

March 2020

  Share of 2018 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation
  PPP MER 2020p 2021p 2022-2026p 2020p 2021p 2022-2026p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))   100.0% 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.6
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) 100.0%   2.7 3.3 3.4 2.7 2.7 3.0
G7 30.1% 45.9% 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.0
E7 38.2% 26.7% 4.2 5.0 5.1 3.4 3.3 3.5
                 
United States 15.2% 24.2% 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3
China 18.7% 15.8% 5.1 6.1 5.7 2.6 2.4 2.9
Japan 4.1% 5.9% 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.2
United Kingdom 2.2% 3.3% 0.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.0
Eurozone 9.8% 13.9% 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.9

France

2.2% 3.3% 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7

Germany

3.2% 4.7% 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.3

Greece

0.2% 0.3% 1.8 2.2 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.8

Ireland

0.3% 0.4% 2.8 2.5 2.8 1.0 1.3 1.9

Italy

1.8% 2.4% 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.4

Netherlands

0.7% 1.1% 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0

Spain

1.4% 1.7% 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.7
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 2.7 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.6 3.0
Russia 3.1% 1.9% 1.3 1.2 1.8 3.5 3.8 4.2
Turkey 1.7% 0.9% 2.5 2.9 3.0 11.3 12.0 11.2
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 1.8 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.5
India 7.8% 3.2% 5.0 5.7 7.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
Indonesia 2.6% 1.2% 4.8 5.0 5.2 3.3 3.3 3.0
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.0 2.5 2.8 0.8 1.5 1.8
Brazil 2.5% 2.2% 1.7 1.9 2.2 5.0 5.2 3.5
Canada 1.4% 2.0% 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
Mexico 1.9% 1.4% 1.2 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.0 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.6 1.0 1.8 5.1 5.1 5.1
Nigeria 0.9% 0.5% 2.3 2.4 2.4 11.7 11.4 11.4
Saudi Arabia 1.4% 0.9% 1.4 1.9 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.1

Sources: PwC UK analysis, National statistical authorities, Eikonfrom Refinitiv and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. UK and Ireland numbers are contingent on a reasonably smooth Brexit. PwC recommends that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios

Interest rate outlook of major economies

March 2020

  Current rate (Last change) PwC expectations Next meeting       
Federal Reserve 1.00-1.25 % (March 2020) Rates on hold for the foreseeable future March 17-18  
European Central Bank 0.00% (March 2016) Rates on hold for the foreseeable future April 9  
Bank of England 0.25% (March 2020) No change expected in the immediate future March 26  

Chart of the month

March 2020

In February, the UK Government announced its intention to bring forward the ban on sales of new petrol, diesel or hybrid cars from 2040 to 20357. So where does the UK stand on electric car sales now?

Sales of electric vehicles are on the rise in the UK growth has averaged 30% per annum in recent years. But electric’s share of new car registrations stands at only 6% based on the latest figures. And its share of the UK’s total vehicle stock is a mere 2%.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

A long way to go to reduce the UK's reliance on petrol and diesel cars by 2035

7. ‘PM launches UN Climate Summit in the UK’, Prime Minister’s Office Press Release, 4 February 2020.

Contact us

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7715 1562331

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