Global Economy Watch - Projections

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Economic projections: March 2019

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.
 

  Share of 2017 world GDP Real GDP growth

Inflation
  PPP MER 2018e 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p 2018e 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p
Global (Market Exchange Rates)   100% 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.6
Global (PPP rates) 100%   3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0
G7 30.6% 46.0% 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9
E7 37.6% 26.6% 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.1 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8
                     
United States 15.3% 24.3% 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.9
China 18.2% 15.0% 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9
Japan 4.3% 6.1% 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.2
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.3% 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.5 1.8 2.0 2.0
Eurozone 10.2% 13.9% 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.0
France 2.2% 3.2% 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.9
Germany 3.3% 4.6% 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.3
Greece 0.2% 0.3% 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.8
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 6.4 3.5 3.7 3.0 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.9
Italy 1.8% 2.4% 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.7
Netherlands 0.7% 1.0% 2.5 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.0
Spain 1.4% 1.6% 2.5 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.9
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 5.0 3.8 3.0 3.0 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.5
Russia 3.2% 1.9% 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.7
Turkey 1.7% 1.1% 3.0 -0.3 2.6 2.4 16.3 19.3 14.2 13
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
India 7.4% 3.3% 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.7 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.1
Indonesia 2.6% 1.3% 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 4.0 3.7 4.3 4.1
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0
Brazil 2.6% 2.6% 1.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.0
Canada 1.4% 2.1% 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9
Mexico 1.9% 1.4% 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.7 4.7 4.0 3.5 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 5.3 4.8 5.4 5.5
Nigeria 0.9% 0.5% 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 16.3 11.9 13 14
Saudi Arabia 1.4% 0.9% 2.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. PPP refers to “purchasing power parity” and MER refers to “market exchange rates”. 


Interest rate outlook of major economies 
 

 

Current rate (Last change)

Expectation

Next meeting

Federal Reserve

2 - 2.25% (December 2018)

One or two rate rises in the second half of 2019

March 19-20

European Central Bank

0.00% (March 2016)

No rate rise in 2019

April 10

Bank of England

0.75% (August 2018)

A rate rise expected in second half of 2019 on the assumption of a reasonably smooth Brexit  

March 21

Contact us

Mike Jakeman

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7483 361717

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