Global Economy Watch - Projections

 

Economic projections: October 2017

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.

 

 

 

  Share of 2016 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation
  PPP MER 2017p 2018p 2019-2023p 2017p 2018p 2019-2023p
Global (Market Exchange Rates)   100.0% 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.5
Global (PPP rates) 100.0%   3.6 3.5 3.6 2.4 2.7 2.7
G7 31.0% 47.1% 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
E7 36.9% 25.8% 5.3 5.2 5.1 3.2 3.3 3.6
                 
United States 15.5% 24.7% 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0
China 17.8% 14.9% 6.6 6.2 5.7 2.0 2.2 2.8
Japan 4.4% 6.6% 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.5
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.5% 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.2
Eurozone 10.4% 13.9% 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
France 2.3% 3.3% 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.2
Germany 3.3% 4.6% 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.7
Greece 0.2% 0.3% 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 4.3 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.9 1.5
Italy 1.9% 2.5% 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4
Netherlands 0.7% 1.0% 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.3
Portugal 0.2% 0.3% 2.6 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.4
Spain 1.4% 1.6% 3.1 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.2
Poland 0.9% 0.6% 3.4 3.3 3.5 1.8 2.0 2.4
Russia 3.2% 1.7% 1.3 1.4 1.5 4.2 4.0 4.0
Turkey 1.7% 1.1% 4.1 3.2 3.4 10.0 8.1 7.0
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 2.7 2.8 2.7 1.9 2.3 2.5
India 7.2% 3.0% 6.9 7.4 7.7 3.6 5.0 5.0
Indonesia 2.5% 1.2% 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.2 4.6 5.1
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.5 2.7
Argentina 0.7% 0.7% 2.6 2.8 3.0 25.0 - -
Brazil 2.6% 2.4% 0.5 1.7 2.6 4.0 4.5 4.5
Canada 1.4% 2.0% 2.4 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.0
Mexico 1.9% 1.4% 1.8 1.9 3.0 5.4 3.5 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.8 1.2 3.0 6.1 5.8 5.5
Nigeria 0.9% 0.5% 0.7 1.8 4.2 15.0 14.1 12.0
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 0.8% 0.8 1.5 3.5 3.5 4.8 2.5

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Argentina has recently launched a new CPI measure, which only contains data from April 2016. Therefore we only project inflation for 2017, and will provide 2018 and 2019-2023 projections once a longer series is available. Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. 

 

Interest rate outlook of major economies 

  Current rate (Last change) Expectation Next meeting
Federal Reserve 1.25% (June 2017) Further gradual tightening in the next two quarters 31 October – 1 November
European Central Bank 0.00% (March 2016) No rate rise for the foreseeable future 26 October
Bank of England 0.25% (August 2016) Rates could increase within next few months 2 November

 

 

 

Chart of the month

Beijing’s currency support and crackdown on outflow channels seems to be working. Net capital inflows to the country turned positive in the first half of this year. Compared to a $420 billion deficit in 2016, China ran a $16 billion surplus in H1 2017. 
 

Global economy watch projections

 

 

 


Related content

UK economic outlook

How secure is the recovery?

Economics in Business blog

Bringing fresh insights to economics, strategy and business

The World in 2050

In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies, accounting for around 84% of total global GDP.

Contact us

Barret Kupelian
Senior Economist
Tel: +44 (0)20 7213 1579
Email

James Loughridge
Economist
Tel: +44(0) 78 0266 0106
Email

Follow us