Global Economy Watch - Projections

Start adding items to your reading lists:
or
Save this item to:
This item has been saved to your reading list.

Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.
 

January 2020

                                            Share of 2018 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation 
  PPP MER 2019p 2020p 2021p 2022-2026p 2019p 2020p 2021p 2022-2026p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))   100.0% 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) 100.0%   3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0
G7 30.1% 45.9% 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0
E7 38.2% 26.7% 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5
                     
United States 15.2% 24.2% 2.4 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3
China 18.7% 15.8% 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.9
Japan 4.1% 5.9% 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.2
United Kingdom 2.2% 3.3% 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0
Eurozone 9.8% 13.9% 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9
France 2.2% 3.3% 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7
Germany 3.2% 4.7% 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.3
Greece 0.2% 0.3% 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 4.3 3.0 3.1 2.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9
Italy 1.8% 2.4% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4
Netherlands 0.7% 1.1% 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.6 1.9 1.7 2.0
Spain 1.4% 1.7% 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 4.3 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.5 3.0
Russia 3.1% 1.9% 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 4.5 5.2 4.0 4.2
Turkey 1.7% 0.9% -0.1 2.5 2.9 3.0 15.5 11.8 12.7 11.2
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.5
India 7.8% 3.2% 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0
Indonesia 2.6% 1.2% 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.0
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.8 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0
Brazil 2.5% 2.2% 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 4.3 5.0 5.2 3.5
Canada 1.4% 2.0% 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
Mexico 1.9% 1.4% 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.4 3.6 3.3 3.0 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.8 4.3 5.1 5.3 5.3
Nigeria 0.9% 0.5% 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.4
Saudi Arabia 1.4% 0.9% 0.1 1.8 2.2 2.4 -1.0 1.6 1.8 2.1

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. UK and Ireland numbers are contingent on a reasonably smooth Brexit.

Interest rate outlook of major economies

January 2020

 

Current rate (Last change)

Expectation

Next meeting

Federal Reserve

1.50-1.75% (October 2019)

No rate rise for the foreseeable future

January 28-29

European Central Bank

0.00% (March 2016)

No rate rise for the foreseeable future

January 23

Bank of England

0.75% (August 2018)

Rate change contingent on Brexit outcome

January 30

Chart of the month

January 2020

The chart on the right shows that the weighted unemployment rate in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation (“OECD”) is at a 38 year low. A low unemployment rate coupled with reasonable real earnings growth has been supporting household consumption growth in most OECD economies.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

Contact us

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7715 1562331

Follow us