Global Economy Watch - Projections

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Economic projections: January 2019

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.
 

  Share of 2017 world GDP Real GDP growth     Inflation
  PPPs MER 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p
Global (Market Exchange Rates)   100.00% 3 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.6
Global (PPP rates) 100.00%   3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3
G7 30.60% 46.00% 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 2
E7 37.60% 26.60% 5.3 5.3 5.1 3.8 3.7 3.7
                 
United States 15.30% 24.30% 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.2
China 18.20% 15.00% 6.3 6.2 5.9 2.4 2.7 2.9
Japan 4.30% 6.10% 0.8 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.2
United Kingdom 2.30% 3.30% 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2 2
Eurozone 10.20% 13.90% 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 2
France 2.20% 3.20% 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.9
Germany 3.30% 4.60% 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.7 2 2.3
Greece 0.20% 0.30% 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8
Ireland 0.30% 0.40% 3.3 3.7 3 1.3 1.5 1.9
Italy 1.80% 2.40% 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.7
Netherlands 0.70% 1.00% 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 2
Spain 1.40% 1.60% 2.4 1.8 2 1.7 1.9 1.9
Poland 0.90% 0.70% 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 2.5
Russia 3.20% 1.90% 1.7 1.8 1.5 4.2 4.8 4.7
Turkey 1.70% 1.10% 0.2 2.6 2.4 19 14.2 13
Australia 1.00% 1.70% 3 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5
India 7.40% 3.30% 7.6 7.7 7.7 4.8 5 5
Indonesia 2.60% 1.30% 5.2 5.3 5.2 5 4.6 4.1
South Korea 1.60% 1.90% 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.9 2 2
Brazil 2.60% 2.60% 2.5 2.2 2.2 4.2 4 4
Canada 1.40% 2.10% 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 2 2
Mexico 1.90% 1.40% 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.9 3 3
South Africa 0.60% 0.40% 1.6 1.7 1.8 5.3 5.4 5.5
Nigeria 0.90% 0.50% 2.5 2.5 2.5 10.8 13 14
Saudi Arabia 1.40% 0.90% 2.2 1.9 2.1 3.1 3.1 3

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. PPP refers to “purchasing power parity” and MER refers to “market exchange rates”. 


Interest rate outlook of major economies 
 

 

Current rate (Last change)

Expectation

Next meeting

Federal Reserve

2 - 2.25% (December 2018)

At least two rises during 2019

January 29-30

European Central Bank

0.00% (March 2016)

No rate rise for the foreseeable future

January 24

Bank of England

0.75% (August 2018)

No rate rise expected in H1 2019

February 7

Chart of the month

The chart on the right shows that 2018 has been a difficult year for the world’s biggest stockmarkets, with the Nikkei, FTSE and Shanghai main indices all down for the year as a whole as of the time of writing in mid-December.

Stocks have suffered from investor concerns about the policy making environment in 2018, notably the potential for the US-China trade dispute to escalate, and of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates at a pace that imperils economic growth and stability in emerging markets.As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

Major stockmarkets have generally declined in 2018 as a result of policy concerns

Contact us

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist

Tel: +44 (0)20 7213 1579

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