Global Economy Watch - Projections

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Economic projections

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.
 

September 2019

  Share of 2018 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation 
  PPP MER 2018e 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p 2018e 2019p 2020p 2021-2025p
Global (Market Exchange Rate ("MER"))   100.0% 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.6
Global (Purchasing Power Parity ("PPP") rate) 100.0%   3.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.0
G7 30.1% 45.9% 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.0
E7 38.2% 26.7% 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6
                     
United States 15.2% 24.2% 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.1
China 18.7% 15.8% 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9
Japan 4.1% 5.9% 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2
United Kingdom 2.2% 3.3% 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0
Eurozone 10.0% 14.2% 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.0
France 2.2% 3.3% 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.9
Germany 3.2% 4.7% 1.4 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.3
Greece 0.2% 0.3% 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 8.2 4.9 4.1 3.0 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.9
Italy 1.8% 2.4% 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.7
Netherlands 0.7% 1.1% 2.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.3 1.8 2.0
Spain 1.4% 1.7% 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.9
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 5.2 4.0 3.5 3.0 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.5
Russia 3.1% 1.9% 2.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 4.0 4.5 4.0 4.7
Turkey 1.7% 0.9% 0.4 -2.3 1.9 2.5 16.3 16.7 13.6 11.4
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5
India 7.8% 3.2% 7.4 7.0 7.2 7.7 2.3 4.2 4.8 5.0
Indonesia 2.6% 1.2% 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.1
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.0
Brazil 2.5% 2.2% 1.3 1.2 1.5 2.2 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0
Canada 1.4% 2.0% 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.9
Mexico 1.9% 1.4% 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.7 4.8 3.2 2.7 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.5 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4
Nigeria 0.9% 0.5% 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 12.4 11.4 11.4 11.5
Saudi Arabia 1.4% 0.9% 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. UK and Ireland numbers are contingent on a reasonably smooth Brexit.

Interest rate outlook of major economies

September 2019

 

Current rate (Last change)

Expectation

Next meeting

Federal Reserve

2-2.25% (July 2019)

A second rate cut in the second half of 2019 is possible 

September 17-18

European Central Bank

0.00% (March 2016)

Monetary easing is likely in September


September 12

Bank of England

0.75% (August 2018)

No change is likely until more clarity is provided on Brexit

September 19

Chart of the month

September 2019

In the aftermath of the 2008-09 global recession, China’s enormous current-account surplus and cheap borrowing by rich countries that it funded were considered by some as a factor behind the crisis. China is no longer has such an imbalance. However, in recent years a group of Asian countries have since built up an external surplus that is of comparable size to that of China in the 2000s.

Such surpluses suggest that currencies might be being held at artificially low levels or that greater social safety nets may be required to stimulate domestic spending. Deepening local financial systems may also be wise to encourage more excess savings to be invested at home.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

Contact us

Barret Kupelian

Senior Economist, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7715 1562331

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