Global Economy Watch - Projections

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Economic projections: July 2018

Our economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.
 

  Share of 2017 world GDP Real GDP growth     Inflation
  PPP MER 2018p 2019p 2020-2024p 2018p 2019p 2020-2024p
Global (Market Exchange Rates) 100.0% 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4
Global (PPP rates) 100.0%   3.9 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.8
G7 30.6% 46.0% 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.9
E7 37.6% 26.6% 5.5 5.4 5.1 3.2 3.4 3.4
                 
United States 15.3% 24.3% 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.1
China 18.2% 15.0% 6.5 6.3 5.9 2.3 2.4 2.6
Japan 4.3% 6.1% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.3
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.3% 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.0
Eurozone 10.2% 13.9% 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6
France 2.2% 3.2% 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.8
Germany 3.3% 4.6% 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.8
Greece 0.2% 0.3% 2.0 2.1 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.7
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 4.6 3.3 2.8 0.9 1.3 1.9
Italy 1.8% 2.4% 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2
Netherlands 0.7% 1.0% 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.6
Portugal 0.2% 0.3% 2.1 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.4
Spain 1.4% 1.6% 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.4
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 3.9 3.4 3.0 1.9 2.5 2.3
Russia 3.2% 1.9% 1.8 1.7 1.7 4.0 4.2 4.2
Turkey 1.7% 1.1% 3.2 3.8 3.5 8.4 8.1 7.0
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.5
India 7.4% 3.3% 7.4 7.6 7.0 4.8 5.0 5.0
Indonesia 2.6% 1.3% 5.2 5.3 5.2 3.8 3.9 4.3
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.9 3.0 2.8 1.6 1.9 2.0
Argentina 0.7% 0.8% 2.1 3.0 3.2 23.5 - -
Brazil 2.6% 2.6% 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.3
Canada 1.4% 2.1% 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.4 1.9 2.0
Mexico 1.9% 1.4% 2.1 2.2 2.5 4.2 3.9 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 1.3 1.5 3.0 5.3 5.6 5.4
Nigeria 0.9% 0.5% 2.0 3.4 4.8 12.1 10.7 9.0
Saudi Arabia 1.4% 0.9% 1.3 1.9 3.1 3.7 3.0 2.3

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Argentina has recently launched a new CPI measure, which only contains data from April 2016. We therefore do not report an inflation measure for 2019, and will provide 2019 and 2020-2024 projections once a longer series is available. Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. PPP refers to “purchasing power parity” and MER refers to “market exchange rates”. 


Interest rate outlook of major economies 
 

 

Current rate (Last change)

Expectation

Next meeting

Federal Reserve

2.00% (June 2018)

Further gradual tightening during the year

Jul/Aug 31-1

European Central Bank

0.00% (March 2016)

No rate rise for the foreseeable future

July 26

Bank of England

0.50% (November 2017)

Further rate rise expected before end of 2018

August 2

Chart of the month

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade. Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors. We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

As part of joining the WTO, China committed to significantly reduce its average tariff rate levels. However, these tariff reductions mainly impacted China’s merchandise trade.

Recently the Chinese leadership has signalled its intent of opening up to foreign ownership some of its service sectors.

We will be monitoring these developments for any changes in the foreseeable future.

Contact us

Barret Kupelian
Senior Economist
Tel: +44 (0)20 7213 1579
Email

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