2035 is coming. But which one?

Amid the wave of tariffs and emerging geopolitical crises, it’s easy to lose sight of two other forces that are reconfiguring the global economy. On the plus side, AI is creating the potential for a revolution in productivity that will supercharge growth. Meanwhile, physical climate risks like flooding, drought, heat stress and wildfires are deflating long-standing expectations for economic growth.

How these two forces interact with each other, and with other megatrends, will shape the business world of 2035. A new PwC model shows the potential impact of these forces, leading to three plausible global scenarios—or three tomorrows. Each is relative to a ‘business as usual’ scenario that assumes moderate progress but doesn’t account for external shocks, policy interventions or large-scale AI adoption.

Trust-Based Transformation. In the first—and most optimistic—scenario, the integration and responsible use of advanced technologies leads to strong productivity growth and job creation while supporting sustainability and innovation. Global standards provide a foundation for trust among companies and countries. The economic benefits of AI exceed the stranded asset costs from decarbonisation. Even after adjusting for climate-related economic damages, the global economy expands by 11%, from $132 trillion to $144 trillion.

Tense Transition. In the second scenario, national and regional interests take centre stage and technology is more fragmented, less trusted and less able to deliver on the productivity potential of AI. Economic growth would be status quo at best, with AI gains and climate costs largely cancelling each other out, and the energy transition proceeding slowly, setting the stage for larger physical climate risks in the future. In this scenario, overall growth is just 5% over the ‘business as usual’ scenario in 2035.

Turbulent Times. In the third scenario, conflicts, instability and ever-greater uncertainty converge to erode trust in technology and its economic benefits. AI takes away more work than it creates, and sustainability measures are neglected at the cost of the future. Growth in this scenario could dip below the baseline projections—a contraction in overall growth.

These three scenarios look at overall global implications, but the model also considers geographic differences. Regions highly exposed to climate change, such as Africa and the Middle East, could experience larger drags on growth. Areas that rapidly adopt AI, such as the Asia-Pacific region, North America and Western Europe, have the potential for bigger productivity booms (under more favourable scenarios) or busts (if AI disappoints).

These projections entail uncertainties, but they give companies a manageable set of scenarios to plan for. In that way, they can help business leaders look beyond the immediate volatility and uncertainty and start planning for long-term success.