Two futures for jobs in an AI era

AI links directly to significant productivity gains 

Since 2022 when AI adoption soared, the most AI-exposed companies have tripled their lead in workforce productivity growth compared to the least exposed companies. There is a pronounced 'super-star' effect; the top fifth of most-exposed companies achieve stellar 163% productivity growth on average. 

Perhaps surprisingly, AI is linked to rising wages and headcount 

The companies achieving the biggest productivity gains from AI are not using it only to cut costs. Instead, they use AI to amplify human performance and create new forms of value. Headcount growth at the most AI-exposed companies is outpacing that at the least exposed companies. Far from being a job killer, AI may actually be a job expander when used to unlock growth and enter new markets. Wages too are growing faster at the most AI-exposed companies, suggesting gains are shared with workers.  

AI is creating a two-track labour market 

AI is ‘professionalising’ some jobs by reshaping them to require even more human expertise. AI ‘democratises’ other jobs by making them even easier for non-experts to perform. Professionalised jobs are thriving; numbers of professionalised jobs are growing twice as fast as democratised ones, and with 42% higher wage growth. Our data suggests a bright future for workers in professionalised roles as AI makes them even more valuable.

AI accelerates skills transformation 

The skills needed for the most AI-exposed jobs are changing more than twice as fast as those for the least exposed roles. This is a 75% increase over the gap we saw last year. 

Crucially, the new tasks added to AI-exposed roles are 2.5 times more likely to rely on skills like empathy, judgement, and creativity that become even more valuable as AI absorbs some routine work. 

AI transforms entry level work

The traditional career ladder is compressing. AI-exposed junior roles are seven times more likely to demand traditionally senior skills such as leadership and strategic thinking (compared to the least exposed junior roles). 

While overall early-career job postings have flatlined in highly AI exposed sectors, 'seniorised' entry level roles are thriving, showing 35% growth since 2019. Organisations must rethink how they mentor and train junior staff, helping them step up to complex decision-making much earlier in their careers. 

Next steps for business leaders

• Use AI to pursue growth over efficiency alone, using it to unlock new revenue, enter new markets, and create new forms of value, especially by partnering across traditional industry lines.
• Consider how AI is changing the human expertise needed for job roles to guide talent investment and skills development.
• Invest in agentic AI, the ultimate complement to human expertise. With a team of AI agents at their command, workers can use their uniquely human expertise to deliver value at much greater scale.
• Reinvent early career pathways. Redesign onboarding, mentorship, and training programmes to accelerate development of advanced skills like leadership, stakeholder management, and strategic decision-making.
• Invest in human-intensive skills alongside AI skills such as empathy, judgement, creativity, and leadership.

Territory insights