The World in 2050

The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050?

#world2050

Key findings

This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.

Key results of our analysis (as summarised also in the accompanying video) include:

  • The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements

  • Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average

  • As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)

  • The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050

  • UK could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively

  • But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.


Explore the World in 2050

View the infographics below for highlights of our GDP projections and explore the results further using our interactive data tool.

Further details are provided in our summary reportfull report and slide pack.

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Key projections

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Challenges for policymakers

Our analysis also identifies a number of key challenges for policy-makers, including:

  • Avoid a slide back into protectionism, which history suggests would be bad for global growth in the long run

  • Ensuring that the potential benefits of globalisation are shared more equally across society

  • Developing new green technologies to ensure that long-term global growth is environmentally sustainable

Please download our full report for more in-depth analysis of these policy issues.

 

Opportunities for business – winning in emerging markets

Our report, which can be downloaded in full below, also considers the opportunities for business:

  • As emerging markets mature, they will become less attractive as low cost manufacturing bases but more attractive as consumer and business-to-business (B2B) markets

  • But international companies need strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to local customer preferences and rapidly evolving local market dynamics

  • Since emerging markets can be volatile, international investors also need to be patient enough to ride out the short-term economic and political cycles in these countries

Please also take a look at the research of our Growth Markets Centre for detailed examples of how companies can succeed in emerging markets.

Explore the data

 

View figures for
Please select up to six countries to view
    GDP in PPP terms (US$ trillions) GDP in MER terms (US$ trillions) GDP per capita (US$) Total population (millions)
    Annual average growth rate (%)
    Average annual growth rate, 2016-2050
    lower
    higher
    PPP: gross domestic product at purchasing power parity adjusts for price level differences across countries, providing a better measure of the volume of goods and services produced. MER: gross domestic product at market exchange rates converts a country's GDP in national currencies to US$, providing a better measure of the value of goods and services produced.
    All GDP projections are expressed in real terms at constant 2016 values
    You can only choose a maximum of 6 countries, please deselect some before picking more.