Global Economy Watch

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections: April 2016

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

Share of 2014 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation
PPP MER 2015e 2016p 2017p 2018-
2022p
2015e 2016p 2017p 2018-
2022p
Global (Market Exchange Rates) 100% 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.7
Global (PPP rates) 100% 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4
G7 32.0% 46.0% 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.8
E7 35.6% 25.4% 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.8 0.4 1.4 3.2 3.3
United States 15.9% 22.5% 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.1 1.0 2.1 2.0
China 16.6% 13.4% 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.7 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.8
Japan 4.4% 6.0% 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.4 1.5
United Kingdom 2.4% 3.8% 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.0
Eurozone 12.2% 17.4% 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.4
France 2.4% 3.7% 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.2
Germany 3.4% 5.0% 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% -0.3 -1.0 1.3 2.0 -1.1 0.1 1.4 1.4
Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 6.5 5.0 4.0 2.5 -0.0 1.0 1.5 1.7
Italy 2.0% 2.8% 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.4
Netherlands 0.7% 1.1% 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.3
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.6
Spain 1.4% 1.8% 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.0 -0.6 0.2 1.3 1.2
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.6 -0.9 -0.3 1.5 2.5
Russia 3.3% 2.4% -3.8 -1.1 0.9 1.5 15.5 7.5 7.1 4.0
Turkey 1.4% 1.0% 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 7.7 8.5 7.5 7.0
Australia 1.0% 1.9% 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.5
India 6.8% 2.7% 7.1 7.7 7.7 6.5 4.9 4.1 4.3 5.0
Indonesia 2.5% 1.2% 5.2 4.8 4.8 5.4 6.8 6.1 6.1 5.1
South Korea 1.6% 1.8% 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.1 0.7 1.5 1.8 3.3
Argentina 0.9% 0.7% 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.5 17.0 25.0 25.0 20.0
Brazil 3.0% 3.0% -3.8 -3.8 -0.0 3.0 9.0 9.0 6.5 5.0
Canada 1.5% 2.3% 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.2 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0
Mexico 2.0% 1.7% 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.0
South Africa 0.7% 0.5% 1.3 0.8 1.8 2.5 4.6 5.8 5.5 5.3
Nigeria 1.0% 0.7% 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.5 9.0 10.5 10.0 8.5
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 1.0% 3.2 1.3 1.5 2.5 2.2 3.0 3.2 3.2

Sources:PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Argentina's inflation projections use the IPCNu Index. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0.25-0.5% (December 2015) Next rate rise may be delayed until later in 2016 26-27 April
European Central Bank 0.0% (March 2016) No rise until after March 2017 21 April
Bank of England 0.5% (March 2009) No immediate rate rise likely 14 April

Chart of the month

We estimate that the net longer term impact related to an EU exit could result in total UK GDP in 2030 being between 1.2% and 3.5% lower in our two exit scenarios than if the UK remains in the EU (around £25-65 billion, at 2015 values).

To read our full report, see our website.

We help you understand how big economic, demographic, social, and environmental changes affect your organisation by setting out scenarios that identify growth opportunities and risks on a global, regional, national and local level. We help make strategic and tactical operational, pricing and investment decisions to support business value creation. We work together with you to achieve sustainable growth.