Global Economy Watch - Projections

 

Economic projections: June 2017

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone.

 

 

 

  Share of 2016 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation 
  PPP MER 2017p 2018p 2019-2023p 2017p 2018p 2019-2023p
Global (Market Exchange Rates)   100% 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5
Global (PPP rates) 100%   3.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9
G7 31.5% 46.4% 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8
E7 36.2% 25.9% 5.1 5.1 5.0 3.6 3.9 3.3
                 
United States 15.8% 24.5% 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0
China 17.3% 15.2% 6.5 6.1 5.7 1.8 2.5 2.8
Japan 4.2% 5.6% 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5
United Kingdom 2.4% 3.9% 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.3
Eurozone 12.0% 15.8% 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4
France 2.3% 3.3% 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2
Germany 3.4% 4.6% 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.1
Ireland 0.3% 0.4% 3.6 3.2 2.6 1.0 1.2 1.5
Italy 1.9% 2.5% 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4
Netherlands 0.7% 1.0% 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.3
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4
Spain 1.4% 1.6% 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.2
Poland 0.9% 0.6% 3.2 3.4 3.5 1.7 1.7 2.4
Russia 3.3% 1.8% 1.1 1.4 1.5 4.7 4.5 4.0
Turkey 1.4% 1.0% 2.6 3.1 3.4 9.6 8.0 7.0
Australia 1.0% 1.7% 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.5
India 7.0% 2.8% 7.3 7.4 6.5 5.0 4.9 5.0
Indonesia 2.5% 1.2% 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.5 4.4 5.1
South Korea 1.6% 1.9% 2.6 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.8 3.3
Argentina 0.8% 0.9% 2.3 2.6 2.5 25.0 - -
Brazil 2.8% 2.4% 0.4 1.5 3.0 5.0 4.5 4.5
Canada 1.4% 2.1% 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
Mexico 2.0% 1.6% 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.5 3.0
South Africa 0.6% 0.4% 0.9 1.5 3.0 6.2 5.8 5.5
Nigeria 1.0% 0.7% 0.8 1.8 4.2 15.8 14.1 12.0
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 0.9% 0.8 1.5 3.5 3.5 4.4 2.5

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Argentina has recently launched a new CPI measure, which only contains data from April 2016. Therefore we only project inflation for 2017, and will provide 2018 and 2019-2023 projections once a longer series is available. Note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios. 

 

Interest rate outlook of major economies 

  Current rate (Last change) Expectation Next meeting
Federal Reserve 1.00% (March 2017) Further gradual tightening over the year 13 – 14 June
European Central Bank 0.00% (March 2016) No rate rise for the foreseeable future 20 July
Bank of England 0.25% (August 2016) No change in rates expected in the short-term 14 June

 

 

 

Chart of the month

The latest data shows that the Eurozone grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of this year.

Moreover, economic activity has become more broadly based across the Eurozone with the ECB describing growth as “solid and broad” now,  as opposed to “fragile and uneven” in 2013. 



 

 

 

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Barret Kupelian
Senior Economist
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