Growth around the world will boost filmed entertainment revenue. Global total filmed entertainment revenue will rise at a 4.1% CAGR to 2019, reaching US$104.62bn. Particularly strong growth will be seen in China (14.5% CAGR) and in Latin America thanks to a 6.1% CAGR in Brazil and 11.5% CAGR in Argentina, but even global leader the US, with 33.0% of the total market in 2014, will see above-average growth of 4.6% CAGR.
Global box office will be driven by local films as well as Hollywood fare. Global box office revenue will rise at a CAGR of 5.7% to US$48.45bn in 2019, from US$36.70bn in 2014. But one trend noticeable everywhere from China to Western Europe is the significance of local films in boosting country box office revenue, and while Hollywood still dominates, local films will increasingly make an impact.
China’s box office growth will see it pull ever nearer to the US. China’s box office revenue is forecast to rise at a 15.5% CAGR, its growth outstripping that of every other market surveyed. China’s box office revenue will thus move from US$4.31bn in 2014 to US$8.86bn in 2019 as its cinema-building boom continues and rising disposable incomes make the cinema more affordable.
Physical home video revenue continues on a downward trajectory. Global total physical home video revenue will decline from US$30.78bn in 2014 to US$22.81bn in 2019 at a -5.8% CAGR. With 52 of 54 territories recording a decline, the factors contributing to this—including the reduction in “bricks and mortar” video stores and the rise of electronic alternatives—only look set to strengthen.
Electronic home video revenue will nearly double over the forecast period. Global electronic home video revenue is set to rise from US$15.28bn in 2014 to US$30.29bn in 2019. Total electronic home video OTT/streaming revenue in particular is seeing a CAGR of 19.0% as online video and streaming services are beginning to attain a significant foothold in many markets.
Connected devices open up new video opportunities—and challenges. Smartphone connections are forecast to rise from 1.92bn in 2014 to 3.85bn in 2019. The proliferation of such connected devices among consumers will create both significant new opportunities and considerable challenges for companies creating and distributing filmed entertainment content.