We project that global spending on consumer and educational book publishing will increase by 0.6 percent compounded annually to $115.7 billion in 2016 from $112.1 billion in 2011. Print/audio consumer and educational books will continue to decline throughout the forecast period, but new electronic readers and tablets are proving to be very popular and will drive spending on electronic books. However, the shift from higher-priced print books to lower-priced electronic books will have an adverse impact on spending, and will dampen overall growth in each region except Latin America, where electronic books are not yet a significant factor.
Spending on electronic books is surging—rising by 64.9 percent in 2011. Global spending on electronic books will grow at a compound annual rate of 30.3 percent to $20.8 billion in 2016, taking electronic books’ share of total global book spending from 4.9 percent in 2011 to 17.9 percent in 2016.
The consumer and educational book publishing market consists of retail spending by consumers on consumer books; spending by schools, government agencies, and students on elementary, high school, and college textbooks, including graduate school textbooks; and spending on books in electronic formats, or so-called electronic books or e-books. Spending includes library and institutional subscriptions to electronic book databases. Print sales include audio books. Educational books do not include supplemental educational spending, administrative software, or testing materials. Professional books are covered in the “Business-to-Business” segment.
Forecasts for consumer/end-user spending in the consumer and educational book publishing segment across 48 countries cover (where available):