Value in motion

The world is entering a disruptive new era shaped by geoeconomic fragmentation, climate urgency and the accelerating influence of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Traditional alliances are shifting and trade instability is on the rise, as global politics reshape economies. At the same time, industries once considered distinct are converging – driven by digitsation, decarbonisation and supply-chain realignment – to create entirely new ‘domains of growth’.

Against this backdrop, countries with diversified partnerships, energy independence and strong AI infrastructure are best positioned to weather uncertainty. Here the Middle East holds a strategic advantage. With its bold climate commitments, low-cost renewable energy and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, the region is driving the next wave of sustainable, tech-enabled progress. The recent flurry of multi-billion-dollar announcements by major AI firms reaffirm the region's accelerating AI ambitions.

The relationship between AI and climate impact is deeply interconnected and will play a pivotal role in shaping how businesses create and capture value in the future.

In this context, our report underscores the opportunity to harness AI-driven productivity gains to leapfrog in priority sectors, while offsetting the economic risks of climate change. By taking this path, the region can position itself as a global leader in climate solutions and emerge as a hub for green manufacturing.

Our research also maps how the broader economic dynamics will evolve under three profoundly different future scenarios, and where value will flow over the next decade.

Looking ahead, we will continue to collaborate with leaders across business, governments and the wider society in our region to navigate this defining era together, seizing opportunities for sustained resilience and growth.

Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology at the opening of the 2025 Global Energy Forum, hosted by the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre

The total projected Middle East GDP in 2035 would be US$4.57 trillion, with traditional sectors reconfiguring into new ‘domains of growth’.

The same transformative forces driving our scenarios above are also dissolving traditional sector boundaries, blurring the lines between processes and applications, geographies and platforms, and even between humans and machines.

Over the next decade, these traditional sectors will reconfigure to meet human needs – such as how we move, feed, build, fuel and care for ourselves – in entirely new ways, leading to the formation of economic domains.⁴

These domains will also redefine how we connect and compute, fund and insure, and govern and serve our societies to enable the transformation ahead. Organisations will diversify to engage in new ways to meet these human needs, reinventing their approaches to target new client bases, form cross-sector alliances and innovate their service and operating models.

PwC economists estimate that the real GDP of the Middle East will be about US$1 trillion larger in 2035 than it is today – offering a significant upside for those ready to move quickly and decisively and capture the next wave of value.

The urgency to reinvent among organisations in the region was strongly indicated in PwC’s 28th Annual CEO Survey: Middle East findings, with 60% of regional CEOs stating their businesses wouldn’t remain viable in 10 years or less without adaptation. This heightened concern not only surpasses last year’s levels but also far exceeds the current global average of 41%.

Not surprisingly, more than half said they have innovated with products and services within the last five years and 40% have begun competing in new industries or sectors to grow market reach.

Several leading regional players are already exemplifying this momentum and moving beyond their traditional boundaries. In the UAE, Careem has become a ‘super-app’, expanding from ride-hailing into food delivery, digital payments, remittances and more. Abu Dhabi’s G42 Healthcare merged with Mubadala Health to form M42, combining AI-driven genomics with world-class patient care. In Saudi Arabia, Aramco’s partnership with EV maker BYD is accelerating the region’s clean-transport shift. These moves show how mobility, healthcare and energy leaders are converging to forge entirely new value chains.

This graphic maps the traditional economic sectors today (on the left side of the chart) to the domains that focus on core human needs (on the right), scaled up to 2035. It shows how much value will be in motion amid the large-scale reconfiguration underway. The domains on the right bring together a wide range of economic sectors – as a result they are larger than the traditional sectors and are hence called domains of growth.

What organisations must do now

The decade ahead will challenge the region’s imagination and capabilities, reshaping an economic model long anchored in hydrocarbons. As the Middle East transitions to a greener economy, government leaders, businesses and academia must reinvent core business, operating, and energy models to stay competitive.

Our research takes a ten-year view – recognising that while today’s seismic geopolitical shifts are largely destabilising, they may ultimately force the pendulum in the opposite direction, prompting deeper global cooperation. Over time, our research indicates that there is a potential for these disruptions to strengthen the momentum towards a more trust-based economic transition.

To thrive in this next defining decade, strategic first movers will turn uncertainty into opportunity – laying the foundation for long-term growth and impact.

¹ _{This assumes moderate progress in economic, population and technological areas, and no significant external shocks or policy interventions.} ↩︎︎

² _{AI productivity gains: AI productivity gains refer to the improvements in efficiency, output, or performance achieved by using responsible artificial intelligence technologies in various tasks, processes, or workflows. Such gains would depend on the fundamental rewiring of functions and tasks in organisations, which will come about only if the AI really works, it’s responsibly deployed, and it’s therefore deeply trusted.}

_{Our research shows that the global economy could be nearly 15% bigger than expected in 2035 if AI delivers a jolt to productivity comparable to the productivity booms ignited in the past by foundational technologies like electricity. The AI growth dividend also depends in part on the global economy replacing the tasks AI takes over with new ones for people to perform.} ↩︎︎

³ _{Stranded assets: Stranded assets are investments or resources that have lost economic value or become obsolete before the end of their expected useful life, often due to external changes such as market shifts, regulatory actions, or technological advancements. As the world moves towards decarbonisation, stranded assets will be replaced by lower-carbon alternatives, resulting in sector-level shifts in investment, consumption, and output across different scenarios.} ↩︎︎

⁴ _{Emerging economic zones that transcend traditional industries, shaped by megatrends such as AI, climate change, and evolving consumer demands. They are collections of ecosystems aligned with Customer/human needs.} ↩︎︎

⁵ _{US President Donald Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East resulted in almost US$700 billion in investment pledes across the region, including major commitments spanning energy, defense, and technology. Such investments reinforce the value in motion across the global economy. The AI sector gained the most – with one third of the deals made targeting AI and digital infrastructure. Some of the stand-out projects announced include: the preliminary agreement for the UAE to import 500k Nvidia’s advanced AI chips annually; Open AI establishing a hyperscale data center in Abu Dhabi; AWS’s partnership with HUMAIN to develop and ”AI Zone” in Saudi; AMD investing up to US$10 billion in AI infrastructure in Saudi; and Data Volt announcing a US$20 billion investment in AI data centers and energy infrastructure in the US.} ↩︎︎

Connected momentum

Turning the Middle East’s reinvention potential into lasting impact

Economies across the Middle East are being rewritten in real time. Intelligent devices, data and analytics are transforming healthcare; cities are evolving into living ecosystems; telecom operators are emerging as key enablers of the region’s digital future and retailers are reinventing their business models through digital and supply chain innovation