Global Economy Watch

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

Share of 2013 world GDP Real GDP Inflation
PPP* MER* 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017-2021p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017-2021p
Global (market exchange rates) 100% 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5
Global (PPP rates) 100% 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.9
United States 16.4% 22.4% 2.4 3.2 3.1 2.6 1.6 0.9 1.8 1.9
China 15.8% 12.7% 7.5 7.1 7.2 6.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 3.0
Japan 4.6% 6.6% 0.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 2.7 1.4 2.3 1.9
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.4% 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.5 0.6 1.8 2.0
Eurozone 12.3% 17.1% 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4
France 2.5% 3.8% 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.2
Germany 3.4% 4.9% 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% 0.6 1.9 3.0 3.5 -1.3 -0.1 1.0 1.4
Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 4.3 3.3 3.2 2.5 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5
Italy 2.0% 2.8% -0.4 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4
Netherlands 0.8% 1.1% 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 -0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5
Spain 1.5% 1.8% 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 -0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.5
Russia 3.4% 2.8% 0.2 -5.0 -0.5 2.0 7.8 15.0 8.0 4.3
Turkey 1.4% 1.1% 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.0 8.9 6.9 6.5 6.2
Australia 1.0% 2.0% 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5
India 6.6% 2.5% 5.3 7.0 6.9 6.5 4.4 4.2 5.2 6.0
Indonesia 2.3% 1.2% 6.3 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 5.1
South Korea 1.7% 1.7% 3.4 3.7 4.0 3.8 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.9
Argentina 0.9% 0.8% -0.4 0.1 3.1 3.1 25.0 25.0 - -
Brazil 3.0% 3.0% 0.3 1.0 2.9 3.0 6.3 5.5 4.5 4.8
Canada 1.5% 2.4% 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.9 2.1
Mexico 2.0% 1.7% 2.3 3.4 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.1
South Africa 0.7% 0.5% 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.5 6.1 5.3 5.4 5.3
Nigeria 1.0% 0.7% 6.0 4.2 4.9 7.0 8.1 11.7 9.9 7.3
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 1.0% 3.6 3.0 3.2 5.2 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.4

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentina's inflation projections use the IPCNu Index released by INDEC. We will provide a 2016 and 2017-2021 inflation projection once a longer time series of data is available. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25% (December 2008) Rate to start to
rise during the
middle of 2015
17-18 March
European Central Bank 0.05% (September 2014) Rates on hold
following decrease
in September
5 March
Bank of England 0.5% (March 2009) Rate to start
rising gradually
later in 2015
5 March

PwC's Global Consumer Index

Growth in global consumer spending failed to start off with a bang in the new year.

Equity market performance weakened slightly in December, however overall industrial production improved owing to a better performance in Asia Pacific. However, news of weakening global growth continues to weigh on consumer and business confidence, which could have a negative effect on the GCI over the short-term.