Global Economy Watch

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

Share of 2013 world GDP Real GDP Inflation
PPP* MER* 2013 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p 2013 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p
Global (market exchange rates) 100% 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6
Global (PPP rates) 100% 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.9
United States 16.4% 22.4% 2.2 2.3 3.2 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9
China 15.8% 12.7% 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.0 2.6 2.2 2.3 3.4
Japan 4.6% 6.6% 1.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.4 2.7 2.0 1.5
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.4% 1.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.6 1.6 2.0
Eurozone 12.3% 17.1% -0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.5 1.0 1.5
France 2.5% 3.8% 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.5
Germany 3.4% 4.9% 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% -3.9 0.2 1.8 3.0 -0.9 -1.2 -0.3 1.3
Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 0.2 4.2 3.2 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5
Italy 2.0% 2.8% -1.8 -0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.5 1.4
Netherlands 0.8% 1.1% -0.7 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.6 0.9 1.2 1.4
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% -1.0 0.9 1.3 1.8 0.4 -0.1 0.5 1.5
Spain 1.5% 1.8% -1.2 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.5 -0.0 0.5 1.0
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 1.6 3.3 3.2 3.5 1.2 0.2 1.0 2.5
Russia 3.4% 2.8% 1.3 0.1 -1.0 2.0 6.8 7.8 6.8 5.0
Turkey 1.4% 1.1% 4.1 2.8 3.4 4.5 7.5 8.9 7.1 4.8
Australia 1.0% 2.0% 2.3 3.2 2.6 3.1 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.7
India 6.6% 2.5% 4.7 5.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 4.4 4.9 6.0
Indonesia 2.3% 1.2% 5.8 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.1
South Korea 1.7% 1.7% 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.9
Argentina 0.9% 0.8% 2.9 -0.4 -0.1 3.3 - 25.0 25.0 -
Brazil 3.0% 3.0% 2.3 0.5 1.0 4.0 6.2 6.3 5.5 4.8
Canada 1.5% 2.4% 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.0 2.0 1.8 2.1
Mexico 2.0% 1.7% 1.7 2.3 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6
South Africa 0.7% 0.5% 1.9 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.8 6.2 5.6 4.8
Nigeria 1.0% 0.7% 5.5 6.2 6.2 5.7 8.5 8.4 8.7 7.3
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 1.0% 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.3 3.5 2.8 3.2 4.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentina's inflation projections use the IPCNu Index released by INDEC which is based in the fourth quarter of 2013 (therefore we do not provide a 2013 estimate). We will provide a 2016-2020 inflation projection once a longer time series of data is available. GDP projections for Argentina use the 2004 base year national account data (previously base year 1993). Our Nigeria GDP projections relate to the new rebased GDP figures but are subject to high margins of error. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25% (December 2008) Rate to start to
rise during the
second half of 2015
16-17 December
European Central Bank 0.05% (September 2014) Rates on hold
following decrease
in September
22 January
Bank of England 0.5% (March 2009) Rate to start
rising gradually
during 2015
8 January

PwC's Global Consumer Index

Global consumer spending growth has continued its downward trend for the fifth consecutive month, remaining below the long-term average.

Although industrial production figures have improved, global stock markets are still experiencing jitters and money supply growth has slowed, underlining weakening growth in China, Japan and Europe, which could dampen consumer spending growth in the short-term.