Global Economy Watch

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

Share of 2012 world GDP Real GDP Inflation
PPP* MER* 2013 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p 2013 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p
Global (market exchange rates) 100% 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.6
Global (PPP rates) 100% 3.0 3.1 3.6 3.6
United States 19.5% 22.5% 2.2 2.1 3.1 2.4 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.9
China 14.7% 11.4% 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.0 2.6 2.3 3.0 3.4
Japan 5.5% 8.3% 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 2.5 1.7 1.5
United Kingdom 2.8% 3.4% 1.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
Eurozone 13.5% 16.9% -0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.5 1.2 1.5
France 2.7% 3.6% 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.5
Germany 3.8% 4.7% 0.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 0.8 1.6 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% -3.9 0.2 1.8 3.0 -0.9 -1.2 -0.3 1.3
Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 0.2 3.4 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5
Italy 2.2% 2.8% -1.8 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.9 1.4
Netherlands 0.8% 1.1% -0.7 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.6 0.9 1.2 1.4
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% -1.0 0.9 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.5
Spain 1.7% 1.8% -1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.5 -0.1 0.8 1.0
Poland 1.0% 0.7% 1.6 3.2 3.3 3.5 1.2 0.4 1.8 2.5
Russia 3.0% 2.8% 1.3 0.1 0.5 2.5 6.8 7.1 6.3 5.0
Turkey 1.3% 1.1% 4.1 2.8 3.8 4.5 7.5 8.8 7.0 4.8
Australia 1.2% 2.1% 2.4 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.7
India 5.7% 2.6% 4.7 5.2 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.9 6.0
Indonesia 1.4% 1.2% 5.8 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.1
South Korea 1.9% 1.6% 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.9
Argentina 0.9% 0.7% 2.9 -1.6 0.6 3.3 - 25.0 25.0 -
Brazil 2.8% 3.1% 2.3 0.5 1.5 4.0 6.2 6.2 5.4 4.8
Canada 1.8% 2.5% 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.0 2.0 1.8 2.1
Mexico 2.2% 1.6% 1.3 2.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6
South Africa 0.7% 0.5% 1.9 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.8 6.2 5.6 4.8
Nigeria 0.5% 0.4% 5.5 6.3 6.2 5.7 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.3
Saudi Arabia 1.1% 1.0% 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.0

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentina's inflation projections use the IPCNu Index released by INDEC which is based in the fourth quarter of 2013 (therefore we do not provide a 2013 estimate). We will provide a 2016-2020 inflation projection once a longer time series of data is available. GDP projections for Argentina use the 2004 base year national account data (previously base year 1993). Our Nigeria GDP projections relate to the new rebased GDP figures but are subject to high margins of error. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25% (December 2008) Rate to start to
rise during the
second half of 2015
28-29 October
European Central Bank 0.05% (September 2014) Rates on hold
following decrease
in September
6 November
Bank of England 0.5% (March 2009) Rate to rise
gradually from late
2014 or early 2015
9 October

PwC's Global Consumer Index

Global consumer spending growth falls to 2.9% this month, the lowest rate since July 2013. Growth in the money supply has slowed while consumer confidence has fallen again this month. Energy commodity prices also fell, exerting downward pressure on the index. However, on a brighter note, industrial production grew strongly.