Global Economy Watch

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

Share of 2012 world GDP Real GDP Inflation
PPP* MER* 2013 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p 2013 2014p 2015p 2016-2020p
Global (market exchange rates) 100% 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.2 4.8 5.2 5.6 4.7
Global (PPP rates) 100% 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.6
United States 19.5% 22.5% 2.2 2.1 3.1 2.4 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.9
China 14.7% 11.4% 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.0 2.6 2.5 3.1 3.4
Japan 5.5% 8.3% 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.4 2.5 1.1 1.5
United Kingdom 2.8% 3.4% 1.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
Eurozone 13.5% 16.9% -0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.5 1.2 1.5
France 2.7% 3.6% 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.5
Germany 3.8% 4.7% 0.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 0.8 1.6 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% -3.9 0.2 1.8 3.0 -0.9 -1.2 -0.3 1.3
Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 0.2 3.1 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5
Italy 2.2% 2.8% -1.8 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.9 1.4
Netherlands 0.8% 1.1% -0.7 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.6 0.9 1.2 1.4
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% -1.0 0.7 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5
Spain 1.7% 1.8% -1.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.9 1.0
Poland 1.0% 0.7% 1.6 3.1 3.2 3.5 1.2 0.6 2.0 2.5
Russia 3.0% 2.8% 1.2 0.5 1.0 2.5 6.8 6.5 5.5 5.0
Turkey 1.3% 1.1% 4.0 2.6 3.8 4.5 7.5 8.6 6.9 4.8
Australia 1.2% 2.1% 2.4 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.7
India 5.7% 2.6% 4.7 5.2 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.9 6.0
Indonesia 1.4% 1.2% 5.8 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.1
South Korea 1.9% 1.6% 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.9
Argentina 0.9% 0.7% 2.9 -1.0 2.0 3.3 - 30.0 30.0 -
Brazil 2.8% 3.1% 2.3 1.3 2.0 4.0 6.2 6.6 5.7 4.8
Canada 1.8% 2.5% 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.1
Mexico 2.2% 1.6% 1.3 2.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6
South Africa 0.7% 0.5% 1.9 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.8 6.1 5.5 4.8
Nigeria 0.5% 0.4% 5.5 6.0 5.9 5.7 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.3
Saudi Arabia 1.1% 1.0% 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.5 3.1 3.5 4.0

Sources: National statistical agencies. All forecasts are on a calendar month basis.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25% (December 2008) Rate to start to
rise during the
second half of 2015
16-17 September
European Central Bank 0.05% (September 2014) On hold following
easing in June
2 October
Bank of England 0.5% (March 2009) Rate to rise
gradually from late
2014 or early 2015
9 October

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentinian inflation figures are based on the old price index which measure CPI in Greater Buenos Aires. A new index the ‘National and urban Consumer Price Index’ (NuCPI) has now been released by INDEC the Argentinian statistical agency. We will monitor this new price index and will base our projection on this once we have several months of data available. Our Nigeria GDP projections relate to the new rebased GDP figures but are subject to high margins of error. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

PwC's Global Consumer Index

Global consumer spending growth falls slightly to 3.5% this month, but remaining above long-term trends. Recent data suggests that industrial production in key economies such as China and the US have improved. Business confidence has increased slightly, which should contribute to further consumption growth in the coming months.