Global Economy Watch

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections: May 2015

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

Share of 2013 world GDP Real GDP Inflation
PPP* MER* 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017-
2021p
2014p 2015p 2016p 2017-
2021p
Global (Market Exchange Rates) 100% 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.5
Global (PPP rates) 100% 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.5
United States 16.4% 22.4% 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.5 1.6 0.3 1.8 1.9
China 15.8% 12.7% 7.6 7.0 7.2 5.7 2.1 2.2 1.8 3.0
Japan 4.6% 6.6% 0.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.7 1.4 2.3 1.9
United Kingdom 2.3% 3.4% 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.5 0.2 1.7 2.0
Eurozone 12.3% 17.1% 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.4 1.4
France 2.5% 3.8% 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 1.1 1.2
Germany 3.4% 4.9% 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 1.8 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% 0.7 -1.1 1.6 2.5 -1.4 -0.8 0.3 1.4
Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 4.8 3.4 3.4 2.5 0.3 0.2 1.1 1.5
Italy 2.0% 2.8% -0.3 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.8 1.4
Netherlands 0.8% 1.1% 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 -0.2 0.1 0.8 1.5
Spain 1.5% 1.8% 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 -0.2 -0.8 1.0 1.2
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.2 0.2 -0.1 1.7 2.5
Russia 3.4% 2.8% 0.2 -5.0 -0.5 1.9 7.8 15.0 8.0 4.3
Turkey 1.4% 1.1% 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.7 8.9 6.9 6.5 6.2
Australia 1.0% 2.0% 2.6 2.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5
India 6.6% 2.5% 5.3 7.0 6.9 6.1 4.4 4.2 5.2 6.0
Indonesia 2.3% 1.2% 1.3 5.8 5.7 5.4 6.3 6.5 6.7 5.1
South Korea 1.7% 1.7% 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.9
Argentina 0.9% 0.8% -0.2 0.3 2.3 2.1 25.0 25.0 - -
Brazil 3.0% 3.0% 0.1 -0.4 1.5 3.1 6.3 7.5 6.0 4.8
Canada 1.5% 2.4% 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 0.9 1.9 2.1
Mexico 2.0% 1.7% 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1
South Africa 0.7% 0.5% 1.5 2.0 2.1 3.2 6.1 4.6 5.6 5.3
Nigeria 1.0% 0.7% 6.2 4.0 4.5 6.0 8.1 12.0 10.0 7.3
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 1.0% 3.6 2.6 3.0 4.4 2.7 2.3 3.0 3.4

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentina's inflation projections use the IPCNu Index released by INDEC. We will provide a 2016 and 2017-2021 inflation projection once a longer time series of data is available. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25% (December 2008) Rate to start to
rise later in 2015
16-17 June
European Central Bank 0.05% (September 2014) Rate on hold
following decrease
in September 2014
3 June
Bank of England 0.5% (March 2009) First rate rise to
come by early 2016
11 May

PwC’s Global Consumer Index

The GCI is on a downward trend for the 11th consecutive month, indicating a continuing fall in consumer spending growth. Equity markets have weakened a little but business and consumer confidence recovered slightly. Industrial production has also improved from last month, especially in the US and Europe. However, the continuing low oil prices are yet to translate into a surge in global consumer spending.