Global Economy Watch

Global Economy Watch

Economic projections: July 2015

Our monthly economic projections table summarises our main scenario GDP and inflation projections. We also assess the interest rate outlook for the US, the UK and the Eurozone. Finally, our monthly updated Global Consumer Index provides an early steer on consumer spending and the growth prospects in the world’s 20 largest economies.

Share of 2014 world GDP Real GDP growth Inflation
PPP MER 2014 2015p 2016p 2017-
2021p
2014 2015p 2016p 2017-
2021p
Global (Market Exchange Rates) 100% 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.5
Global (PPP rates) 100% 3.4 3.3 3.8 3.6
United States 16.1% 22.5% 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.6 0.2 1.8 1.9
China 16.3% 13.4% 7.6 7.0 7.0 5.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 3.0
Japan 4.4% 6.0% -0.1 1.1 1.7 1.3 2.7 1.4 1.5 1.9
United Kingdom 2.4% 3.8% 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.5 0.3 1.7 2.0
Eurozone 12.2% 17.4% 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.4 1.4
France 2.4% 3.7% 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 1.1 1.2
Germany 3.4% 5.0% 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 1.8 1.7
Greece 0.3% 0.3% 0.7 -1.5 0.7 2.5 -1.4 -0.8 0.3 1.4
Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 4.8 3.4 3.4 2.5 0.3 0.2 1.1 1.5
Italy 2.0% 2.8% -0.4 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.8 1.4
Netherlands 0.7% 1.1% 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3
Portugal 0.3% 0.3% 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 -0.2 0.1 0.8 1.5
Spain 1.5% 1.8% 1.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 -0.2 -0.8 1.0 1.2
Poland 0.9% 0.7% 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.2 0.2 -0.1 1.7 2.5
Russia 3.3% 2.4% 0.2 -5.0 -0.5 1.9 7.8 15.0 8.0 4.3
Turkey 1.4% 1.0% 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.7 8.9 7.7 6.8 6.2
Australia 1.0% 1.9% 0.7 2.9 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5
India 6.8% 2.7% 7.0 7.5 7.9 6.1 3.8 -2.2 3.9 6.0
Indonesia 2.5% 1.1% 1.2 4.9 5.0 5.4 6.4 6.8 5.8 5.1
South Korea 1.6% 1.8% 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.5 1.3 1.0 2.0 2.9
Argentina 0.9% 0.7% 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.1 - 20.0 25.0 -
Brazil 3.0% 3.0% 0.1 -0.9 0.7 3.1 6.3 8.0 6.0 4.8
Canada 1.5% 2.3% 2.4 1.4 2.2 2.2 1.9 0.9 1.9 2.1
Mexico 2.0% 1.7% 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.3 3.1
South Africa 0.7% 0.5% 1.5 1.8 2.0 3.2 6.1 4.8 5.6 5.3
Nigeria 1.0% 0.7% 6.2 4.0 4.5 6.0 8.1 10.5 10.0 7.3
Saudi Arabia 1.5% 1.0% 3.5 2.6 3.0 4.4 2.7 2.3 3.0 3.4

Sources: PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Datastream and IMF. All inflation indicators relate to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the exception of the Indian indicator which refers to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Argentina's inflation projections use the IPCNu Index. We will provide a 2017-2021 inflation projection once a longer time series of data is available. There is not a complete series of year-on-year price growth data available for 2014 so we have not provided an estimate for annual inflation in this year. Also note that the tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. We recommend that our clients look at a range of alternative scenarios.

Interest rate outlook of major economies
  Current rate
(Last change)
Expectation Next Meeting
Federal Reserve 0-0.25% (December 2008) Rate to start to
rise later in 2015
28-29 July
European Central Bank 0.05% (September 2014) Rate on hold
until at least
late 2016
16 July
Bank of England 0.5% (March 2009) First rate rise
expected in 2016
6 August

PwC’s Global Consumer Index

After a brief recovery, the GCI declined once more in June. The new data reflects less buoyant equity markets and consumer confidence in response to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in Europe. This could deteriorate further depending on the outcome of the Greek sovereign debt crisis. There are some signs of improving industrial production in Asia, which may provide a small boost to the GCI in the medium-term.