The new frontier for Defence, Security and Resilience (DSR) in the Middle East

The Middle East is strengthening the foundations of national strength as governments across the region accelerate economic diversification, attract record levels of investment and build globally connected cities and industries.

As the region becomes more interconnected, both opportunity and exposure are increasing. Positioned at the centre of global trade flows, the Middle East is also seeing a surge in tourism, with major international events further elevating its global visibility. Yet these ambitions rely on a fundamental truth: people and capital only move where they feel safe. Defence, security and resilience are preconditions for the region’s economic momentum – the foundations of confidence, continuity and sustained growth. In this context, Defence, Security and Resilience (DSR) has moved from a supporting function to a strategic imperative, one that underpins confidence, continuity, and sustained growth.

Given that the region faces evolving geopolitical dynamics, increasingly sophisticated cyber threats, and the accelerating pace of climate and technological change – the cost of disruption is significantly high. Under such circumstances, the continuity of essential services, resilience of infrastructure and integrity of digital and physical environments determine whether national progress can be sustained during periods of disruption.

For governments, communities and businesses in the region, DSR is central to protecting growth, safeguarding public trust and maintaining continuity at scale. Defence expenditure already exceeds US$243 billion annually¹. Policing and public-safety capacity continue to expand as national visions in key regional economies are reinforcing the resilience of energy, transport and digital networks. Yet the speed and complexity of change demand more than incremental investment. Protection and preparedness must operate as an integrated system, not as isolated capabilities.

The objective of this paper is to set out an integrated approach to protection and preparedness by examining how Defence, Security and Resilience (DSR) must evolve in response to the five defining megatrends that have implications for governments, communities and businesses.² Bringing together national defence, public security, and institutional resilience into a coherent DSR framework, the paper uses climate change, technological disruption, demographic shifts, a fracturing global order and social instability as an analytical lens to assess emerging risks and capability gaps. In doing so, it argues that preparedness can no longer be treated as a linear cycle of response and recovery but must instead be understood as an interconnected system of capabilities, enabled by coordinated policy, technology and governance, to meet the Middle East’s evolving risk landscape.