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New markets, new routes for Canadian logistics
Modelling Canada’s export future across energy, minerals, and agri-food
Trade is fragmenting into blocs and trusted corridors. Governments are reshaping trade through industrial policy. Resilience is overtaking efficiency in supply chain design.
Here in Canada, these shifts are playing out in real time as the public and private sectors work to secure new customers and build redundancies into supply chains. While maritime routes, ports, inland gateways, and intermodal connections have always underpinned trade competitiveness, their strategic importance is quickly intensifying.
This is more than a short-term disruption. Although many may be inclined to wait for clarity, the window to act is now. We have what the world needs. If we don’t find ways to provide it, other jurisdictions will. The federal government is already investing in infrastructure and critical supply chains to build the capacity Canada will need to compete globally.
In this report, we analyze how Canadian trade flows could evolve in response to these shifts across three priority product groups. We also highlight what needs to change in Canadian logistics and supply chains to capture that growth.
What will Canada trade, and where?
Trade growth in Canada will likely shift to east-west flows as we expand beyond our historical reliance on the United States as a key trade partner. But which products will drive that shift, and where will they go? Trade adjustment will play out unevenly. Market-traded sectors can realign faster because products are more standardized, buyer pools are broader, and sales are less dependent on integrated production networks with the United States.
We assessed what Canada has to offer against five criteria that evaluate the potential of a product group to find economically viable markets outside the United States, given supporting logistics infrastructure.
Our analysis found three Canadian product groups are best positioned to drive this shift: energy, metals and minerals, and agri-food. Non-US exports in these product groups will grow faster than US exports, even under a baseline scenario, where no concerted efforts are made to facilitate diversification. But government efforts to augment logistics infrastructure should open new opportunities.
We’ve also developed a more ambitious scenario consistent with the federal government’s vision of doubling non-US exports by 2035. Under this scenario, these product groups could accelerate this growth by approximately $146 billion beyond the baseline path by 2035.
Projected non-US export growth by product group, 2025–35
| Product | Value of export in 2025 | Projected value of export in 2035 with baseline growth | Projected value of export in 2035 if Canada’s policy ambitions achieved |
Energy products |
$29.47B | $84.47B | $106.31B |
| Metal and non-metallic mineral products | $55.74B | $61.84B | $98.33B |
| Agri-food products | $30.78B | $56.58B | $82.65B |
| Other products | $35.47B | $41.85B | $60.16B |
| Metal ores and non-metallic minerals | $23.01B | $39.92B | $56.52B |
| Consumer goods | $18.48B | $30.86B | $46.88B |
| Aircraft and motor vehicles | $12.57B | $15.85B | $24.65B |
| Forestry | $8.18B | $7.88B | $9.76B |
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Spotlight on Canadian priority trade goods
Global trends suggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil, critical minerals, and agri-food will see increased demand from markets outside the United States. If Canadian governments’ plans to simplify regulations and quickly build logistics infrastructure to serve new markets materialize, these product groups will become a catalyst for diversifying trading partners.
We’ve assessed the projected direction, volume, and growth of these exports by region over the next ten years. Following our visualization, we break down each product group: where the opportunities could be and how to access them.
Where Canada trades
Projected direction, volume, and growth of Canadian exports by region
LNG and oil
Energy security and resilience remain priorities, especially as countries look for reliable supply amid geopolitical volatility and uneven energy transition pathways. Canada has abundant natural gas reserves, proven extraction capability, and growing LNG export infrastructure on the Pacific Coast. This positions Canada well to help meet demand for secure and diversified energy supplies in global markets.
Demand for LNG is expected to remain strong as markets replace coal or diversify away from higher-risk suppliers. This demand is supported by growing baseload power requirements for data centres and AI infrastructure, where natural gas offers reliable, cost-effective generation.
The scale of the opportunity is visible in pricing. The gap between the price of Canadian natural gas (Alberta Energy Company (AECO)) and the Asian equivalent (Platts Japan Korea Marker (JKM)) shows us Canada is leaving money on the table because we can’t get our product to market.
Oil remains an important part of the energy security equation. Despite long-term decarbonization commitments, global oil demand is expected to persist for decades—particularly in aviation, petrochemicals, heavy transportation, and emerging markets.
Canada is one of the world’s largest and most politically stable oil producers, offering supply security at a time when markets remain sensitive to geopolitical disruptions in major producing regions. Expanding market access and export capacity will allow Canada to capture greater value from its resources, diversify its customer base beyond North America, and provide allies with a more reliable supply alternative.
Where are the opportunities?
Emerging Asia and developed Asia-Pacific rank as the strongest opportunities. They combine large import markets with structural import reliance and relatively high openness. These regions contain the most credible anchor buyers for Canadian energy, especially LNG, where long-term contracts and security-of-supply logic are common.
A secondary cluster in Europe (European Union, United Kingdom, European Free Trade Association) offers strong market access and openness. But commercial success there will depend on compliance readiness, delivered-cost competitiveness, and a physical export path from eastern Canada that doesn’t yet exist.
Path to market
For LNG, meaningful diversification is largely a function of LNG export capacity and the reliability of the upstream-to-port corridor. Canada currently has one operational LNG export facility on the West Coast, with several others in development in British Columbia. No liquefaction capacity exists on the East Coast of Canada. Contracted LNG from Canada to Europe needs to be shipped via much longer shipping routes to access this market.
The time to act is now. Most LNG contracts being signed today are 15- to 20-year commitments.
For oil, Canada’s export system remains heavily shaped by pipeline connectivity and refinery configurations. These anchor flows within North America. Even where overseas demand exists, Canada’s ability to reach those markets is constrained by pipeline geography and marine export capacity.
In this context, international export capacity works less as a primary trade corridor and more as insurance against concentration risk, which has forced Canadian producers to sell much of their output to the United States at a discount to global benchmark prices.
Critical minerals
Critical minerals underpin the energy transition, defence supply chains, and advanced technology, such as semiconductors and data centres. Global demand is growing, while reserves and downstream processing remain heavily concentrated in a small number of jurisdictions, most notably, China. This concentration creates supply chain dependencies—and a commercial opportunity for diversified suppliers.
As a politically stable, resource-rich jurisdiction with strong environmental and social governance standards, Canada’s biggest advantage in critical minerals is trust. Canada’s reputation as a responsible producer could become a differentiator as countries look to diversify supply away from concentrated, higher-risk sources.
Where are the opportunities?
Opportunities in critical minerals are shaped not only by geology, but also by where minerals are processed. This is one of the main reasons many Western governments are supporting domestic processing facilities and critical-mineral value chains rather than focusing solely on minerals. It’s an opportunity for countries such as Canada to climb the value-added ladder.
Canada, along with Australia, Chile, Argentina, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, benefits from large deposits of critical minerals. But the processing stage is heavily concentrated in China, with Indonesia emerging as the leading global supplier of nickel.
Developed Asia-Pacific and North America (Mexico) offer stronger contractability and trade agreement coverage. This makes them more suitable anchors for stable, long-term supplier relationships.
Path to market
Without meaningful domestic processing capability, Canadian minerals follow established routes to existing smelting and refining hubs, regardless of where end-use demand sits.
Scaling Canadian processing capacity will require more than financial de-risking. It demands significant changes in workforce capability, technology, and technical expertise alongside mechanisms such as public-private partnerships, price protection, and long-term offtake guarantees. While private capital is starting to follow political ambition, it’s not yet at scale.
A more immediate constraint for expanding mineral production is port capacity. Bulk minerals require commodity-specific handling infrastructure: storage, loading equipment, and vessel access designed for specific materials. As extraction increases, ports risk becoming choke points without targeted investment in handling capacity for the specific commodities Canada intends to export.
With the timeline for meaningful change likely measured in decades rather than years, early positioning is critical. That means maintaining logistics readiness by increasing extraction, solving port constraints, and building volume on existing routes. Planned defence infrastructure in northern and remote regions could also serve mineral extraction. Canadian miners’ supply must be ready when new processing capacity becomes available, either here or in allied nations.
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Agri-food
Food security is a significant concern for import-dependent nations. It’s driven by population growth, climate volatility, and finite global arable land. Canada is one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters, with strong quality and traceability standards, a recognized national brand, and diverse production capacity. Canada’s advantages are quality, reliability, and food safety credibility.
Of the three Canadian priority product groups, agri-food faces the fewest structural barriers to diversification and is already being exported at scale to non-US markets. The opportunity is acceleration. Initiatives such as the Government of Canada’s National Food Security Strategy signal federal commitment to strengthening domestic agri-food production and processing capacity, which will also support export growth.
Where are the opportunities?
For cereal and oilseed food trade, North America (Mexico) ranks as the strongest destination. Near-shore corridors reduce freight penalties for low value-to-weight products, and trade agreement coverage supports repeatable access.
Emerging Asia is the largest upside corridor. This region contains the largest concentration of population growth and rising middle-class global demand. Many countries in the region are becoming larger net importers of food because population growth, urbanization, and income growth are outpacing domestic agricultural production capacity. At the same time, climate change is constraining agricultural production in several Asian countries. However, Canadian export growth will be sensitive to policy shifts, such as tariffs, quotas, and ad hoc restrictions in this region.
In contrast to emerging Asia, Europe (including the United Kingdom) is a mature market with a declining population and slow economic growth. However, it offers rules-based, access-stable market conditions, which are conducive to Canadian agri-food exports. Success will require targeted positioning—competing in established supply chains on quality and reliability—rather than simply assuming Europe will absorb incremental volumes.
Africa represents a significant long-term growth opportunity. This is driven by the combined effects of rapid population growth, rising incomes, urbanization, and increasing food demand. Climate change is expected to put greater pressure on agricultural productivity through higher temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, droughts, floods, and greater yield volatility.
As a result, many African countries will likely increasingly rely on imported cereals, oilseeds, pulses, and other food products to supplement domestic production. Canada is well positioned to help meet these demands.
Path to market
Canada can move fastest to diversify agri-food exports because this doesn’t require a fundamental infrastructure overhaul. The priority is making sure the system can handle more volume when production ramps up. That means targeted investments rather than wholesale rebuilds. While labour availability is an emerging constraint, automation is a potential solution as volumes grow.
Agri-food’s primary limitation is production capacity. Output is cyclical and weather dependent. While there are growth levers, such as ag tech efficiency, value-added processing, and emerging categories, most aren’t yet material at an export scale. Successful diversification will also depend on commercial partnerships and distribution infrastructure in destination markets to receive and move products to end buyers.
Where production does increase, the logistics system needs to keep up. The priority in western Canada is corridor resilience. This includes backup routes to mitigate single-point-of-failure risk on existing export pathways to Asia and Mexico and weatherproofing for grain handling on the West Coast.
For Europe, growth depends on efficient eastward corridors, a less developed path that will need attention as volumes increase. Targeted port upgrades in Thunder Bay and Hamilton are examples of what’s needed. For Africa, the priority is monitoring what increased demand could look like and adding capacity in ports such as Saint John and Halifax. This is a redundancy and modernization investment, not a new-build story.
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Are Canadian supply chains ready?
Trade growth in Canada will likely shift away from north-south corridors and toward Pacific and Atlantic routes. The sector-level direction is clear. But will Canadian companies and policymakers move fast enough—and at the right level of specificity—to capture emerging opportunities?
Direction alone isn’t enough. Canadian companies need to move from waiting for orders to actively building commercial relationships in target markets. This includes sending teams to Europe, building presence in Asia and Africa, and understanding how products will move once they arrive. The opportunities identified here require commercial intent—they won’t be captured by infrastructure on its own.
Real decisions about where to invest, what to build, and which routes to prioritize will happen at the commodity level. LNG and crude oil require different infrastructure. Copper and titanium require different port handling. Cereals and perishables move through different corridors. At the subcategory level, the specifics of each commodity will determine the investment case.
The forces reshaping trade won’t wait for consensus. Someone will have to act first.
Let’s discuss what it will take to compete as Canadian trade flows shift.
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