Global M&A Outlook 2026: Key takeaways

AI as a strategic driver in M&A deals

• The PwC’s review of the 100 largest corporate M&A deals from 2025 reveals that about one-third cited AI as a strategic reason.

AI tools accelerating deal execution

• Leading companies and dealmakers are mapping how AI will transform industries, subsectors, and regions. Understanding where AI disrupts and creates opportunities is crucial for building a unique investment thesis, achieving above-market returns, and avoiding value loss as business models change.
• Although still in early stages, AI tools are speeding up target screening, enhancing due diligence, and improving scenario modelling. Some investors are using AI-driven inputs in investment committee discussions to boost speed, depth of analysis, and decision quality.

AI infrastructure investment cycle and its impact on M&A capital

• The multitrillion-dollar AI infrastructure investment cycle may divert capital from M&A in the short term. Hyperscales, governments, sovereign wealth funds, and private capital are globally aligning to fund AI at scale. This capital expenditure wave will continue to absorb funds that might otherwise support acquisitions.

AI bubble or not? Risks and scenario planning 

• The AI buzz rekindles fears of a bubble, reminiscent of the dot-com era, which ended in a sharp correction but laid today's digital economy's foundations. Unlike then, today's AI investments by major firms indicate a structural shift, hinting at a significant tech transformation. 
• Bubble or not, dealmakers, private equity, and corporate leaders should prepare for market swings through scenario planning, strong liquidity, flexible financing, and clear contingency plans.

• Confidence has returned to the top end of the M&A market, but recovery remains uneven. In 2025, global deal values rose sharply, driven by megadeals, even as overall deal volumes stayed flat—clear evidence of a K-shaped market. Large, well-capitalised buyers are driving activity, while mid-market transactions remain constrained by valuation gaps, execution risk, and uncertainty.
• This polarisation is reinforced by geography and sector dynamics. The US accounts for less than a quarter of global deal volumes but more than half of global deal value, reflecting deep capital markets and a concentration of megadeals. Sectorally, activity is increasingly focused on technology, banking, manufacturing, power and utilities, and pharmaceuticals and life sciences—industries aligned with scale, innovation, and long-term growth.
• For dealmakers, the implication is clear: M&A is reopening, but unevenly. Competitive advantage increasingly accrues to those with access to capital, clear strategic focus, and the ability to act decisively, rather than waiting for perfect conditions.

A macroeconomic backdrop of slowing growth, easing interest rates, and abundant capital is reinforcing a two-speed market, where confidence has returned at the top end, while activity elsewhere remains constrained.

For Ukrainian businesses, this and other studies help frame the global M&A agenda and emerging trends, both established and nascent. 

Our 29th Global CEO Survey shows that 41% of CEOs globally plan to undertake a major acquisition within the next three years. In Ukraine, 40% of CEOs plan to make at least one acquisition over the same period, broadly in line with global sentiment.

The M&A market is evolving at unprecedented speed. While AI, geopolitics, and volatility are key drivers, the forces reshaping dealmaking go far beyond any single theme. This Outlook sends a clear message: the time to transform is now. Success will depend on the ability to adapt quickly, remain flexible, and look beyond the immediate horizon to identify emerging strategic opportunities across both domestic and global markets.