Investment Trends and Implications for Ukraine

Infrastructure spending is defined as gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) by the public and private sectors on fixed, immovable structures that support long-term economic growth. In addition to new spending, it includes replacement spending and capital expenditure on maintenance (i.e. to substantively extend the lifetime of an asset). This measure is a subset of total fixed spending and excludes cultivated biological resources, intellectual property products, transport equipment, and information and communications technology (ICT) equipment.

The definition of infrastructure spending has varying implications for different sectors. A few examples: ICT equipment, such as CPUs and GPUs, which represents a significant proportion of the capital outlays for data centre construction, is not included under the definition of infrastructure. Power infrastructure assets such as solar panels are not explicitly defined under the OECD definition of GFCF. Transport equipment such as rolling stock or ships and planes in the defence sector are not included in the infrastructure figures.

It should be noted that this is our preferred definition, but the analysis has required us to collect data from a wide range of sources, and definitions inevitably vary across those sources. We have attempted to identify the available data that most closely aligns with the definitions used.

The nine sectors of infrastructure investment analysed in this report consist of spending on fixed assets and structures used for the following purposes.

Agriculture. The growing of crops, raising and breeding of animals, and harvesting of timber and other plants, including the cost of irrigation and drainage, on-farm structures, and storage facilities.

Digital infrastructure. The information and communications sectors, including towers, fibre and cable networks, data centres, and related facilities.

Defence. Physical installations that support defence, including barracks and other military facilities; transport networks, depots, and warehouses; ship-building facilities and dry docks; and communications infrastructure.

Industrial manufacturing. Plants, facilities, and networks that support heavy metals and chemicals processing, petroleum refining, and automotive manufacturing.

Power. Generation, storage, and distribution of electricity, including renewable assets, fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, transmission and distribution, and battery storage.

Resources. The exploration, extraction, processing, transportation, and storage of oil and gas, coal, metals, and minerals, including mining facilities, pipelines, refineries, and storage terminals.

Social infrastructure. The provision of health or education services, including aged care facilities.

Transport: Transportation, including roads, bridges, tunnels, railways, airports, ports, and marine works.

Water. The treatment and distribution of water, including sewage and drainage systems. Assets include treatment plants, dams, pipelines, and drains.

Each region in the Outlook is represented by a group of countries and territories that act as a viable proxy for the whole. The proxies for each region are:

Africa: Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa

Americas: Brazil, Canada, Chile, Mexico, United States

Asia-Pacific: Australia, Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, the Taiwan region, Thailand, Vietnam

Advanced or mature economies in Asia-Pacific include Australia, Japan, Hong Kong SAR, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and the Taiwan region. Developing and emerging Asia-Pacific economies include the Chinese Mainland, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Definitions are based on IMF aggregations, found here.

Europe: Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, United Kingdom

Middle East: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

The main challenge in providing comparative infrastructure spending figures across countries and sectors is the lack of a single and consistent dataset. A comprehensive data sourcing exercise was undertaken for the analysis contained in this report. Most data sources, accessed in 2025, provided figures up to either 2023 or 2024.

The main sources of spending data used were the OECD, Eurostat, and national statistical agencies. Data that was not available from official public sources was estimated with a variety of techniques. This process involved using additional data sources (International Energy Agency, Milex), estimating sectoral infrastructure spending from sectoral capital expenditure, or using available metrics from peer countries to estimate spending.

Oxford Economics created a new database of infrastructure spending forecasts to anchor PwC’s research. The forecasts are based on Oxford Economics proprietary models for the construction industry and cover nine sectors in 45 countries and territories. The infrastructure spending forecasts are globally consistent, and are linked through global and country-level assumptions of trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices. For a particular country and sector, the infrastructure spending forecast is informed by end-use demand factors such as population growth, income growth, cost of capital, and economic activity across sectors. Given the changing composition of economies over time, the infrastructure spending forecast will diverge from country-level GDP.

The database provides a structural economic framework that considers both supply and demand factors affecting sectoral growth. This is distinct from spending projections based on a pipeline of publicly announced projects, which are unable to provide long-term projections of spending due to a lack of project visibility in the future. The new infrastructure spending forecasts provide a macroeconomic outlook on future spending outcomes across the countries and sectors examined in this report.

The calculations for defence stem from a slightly different methodology. Unlike other sectors, these projections are not derived from structural economic modelling; instead, they assume a fixed share of GDP, adjusted for announced and anticipated changes to defence spending as a percentage of future GDP. These reflect policy signals such as NATO’s interim target of allocating 1.5% of GDP to defence infrastructure (excluding equipment and personnel) by 2035, on the path towards a longer-term ambition of 5% of GDP.

Throughout this Outlook, growth percentages are calculated based on exact projections rather than the rounded sums mentioned in the narrative.