Economic update summer edition 2026

Malta’s economic growth has stayed ahead of the EA, but the pace continues to converge at a per-capita level

In the first quarter of 2026, Malta’s year-on-year growth remained strong at 3.9% (or 3.8% when measured on a rolling four quarter moving sum), more or less in line with the previous quarterly growth rates experienced in 2025. This suggests that the moderation from higher growth rates has extended into 2026. Meanwhile, in the euro area, GDP increased by 1.1%, down from 1.2% in the same quarter last year.

When measured on a per capita basis, Malta’s convergence with Euro Area growth becomes more apparent. Malta’s per capita growth rate in the first quarter of 2026 measures 1.7%, compared with 0.8% in the euro-area.

Malta’s population reached 588,254 by year-end 2025, up by around 14,000 over the previous year, with foreign residents now representing 31% of the population

On the basis of the most recent data and an expected moderation in current migration patterns, Malta’s population could realistically reach around 636,000 by 2030

Our model indicates a potential population range of 624,000 to 660,000 by 2030, depending on different rates of slowdown in current net migration patterns. Over the past 10 years, net migration averaged 11,842 people per annum, with above-average rates being observed post-covid. Most of the net migration flows stem from outside the EU, averaging 7,843 net migrants compared with 3,475 net migration from the EU. Meanwhile, the local population has remained more or less flat at just over 400,000, with a slight decline in birth rate.

Our projections are based on assumptions reflecting a partial slowdown in net migration over time to levels observed before the pandemic. Nonetheless, the results suggest that population would still increase significantly, with the mix of foreign to local reaching around 38% in the base case.

At such population levels, pressures on infrastructure naturally increase

At the current population level of 588,254, the country’s population density stands at approximately 1,862 people per square kilometre, making Malta the 4^th most densely populated country in the world. Based on a projected population of 636,000 by 2030, population density would increase to approximately 2,013 people per square kilometre.

To analyse Malta’s capacity for increasing population numbers, reference can also be made to certain key infrastructure metrics. For example, based on most recent available Eurostat data, Malta ranks 17^th compared to EU peers on hospital beds per 100k residents. At 397 beds per 100k, this measures 78% of the EU average which stands at 511 beds per 100k.

Assuming a projected population of 636,000 by 2030, this would imply the need to add 329 (c.15%) more beds over the next five years simply to maintain this standing. In order to achieve parity with the European average, i.e. 511 beds per 100k, then Malta would need to increase bed capacity by 1,054 beds (or 48%) by 2030.

In terms of energy production, according to latest NSO data for 2024, Malta produced 2,138k MWh of locally generated electricity. Above this, in order to meet total energy demand, a net 970k MWh of electricity were imported. This represents around 5.4 MWh of electricity per capita for that year. Extrapolating on a population projection of 636,000, and assuming the same level of local energy capacity, would imply the need to import 1,304k MWh of electricity to keep the same level of per capita electricity use – representing a circa 25% increase in imported energy requirement.