Power Market Analytics: Forecast of future power prices

The liberalization of the Japanese power market has been accompanied by the continuous opening of new markets, which makes predicting the future price of power more and more important for all businesses involved in the field. At PwC, we provide support to the power market participants, and offer power price forecasting and forward curves for Japan using our proprietary model.

Responding to various needs of the power traders

The future and base load market has been opened recently. With the capacity market being on the horizon, it is expected to see a sharp increase in the liquidity and the complexity of power trading business.

PwC's Power Market Analytics is developed to solve the challenges faced by power trading companies (utilities or retailers). We respond to a wide range of needs. These include day-to-day supply and demand management; bilateral trading price, retail price, and futures trading analytics; business plans formulation; and long-term price forecasting, in the range of 20 years or more, required for the strategic decision-making when constructing of new power plants and investigating the feed-in premiums (FIPs).

Scientifically based approach

Short-term forecasts are calculated using techniques extensively utilized on the international scale and together with the application of statistical methods and artificial intelligence systems.

The long-term forward curves are computed using fundamental modelling that provides predictions and reflects the vividness of the changing business environment.

Statistical model: a traditional and classic methodology widely used in forecasting area. At PwC, we use Arima forecasting model, with historical prices and temperature as features, to estimate the future spot prices. This model demonstrated good performances, especially a capacity to adjust rapidly to spikes situations.

Artificial intelligence: a highly accurate machine learning model is used in our product. Although the prediction process is considered as a “black box”, the model can reflect the influence of power plant outage, solar radiation and many other features into the future spot price.

Fundamental model: the fundamental model calculates the expected future prices based on assumptions of future demand, power plant capacity, fuel price and interconnections. 3 years future prices for 4 regions forecast is provided with a granularity of 30 minutes.

Short-term forecasts are calculated using techniques that have been used extensively abroad, such as statistics and artificial intelligence. When creating a long-term forward curve, we use fundamental models to provide predictions that reflect the changing business environment.

Easy-to-use, comprehensive web platform

You can view the latest forecasts anytime and anywhere with your browser by visiting our easy-to-use web platform. You can also export the data in the universal CSV format to perform your own analysis or download the data directly using the included API.

In addition to providing forecast data, we regularly distribute our proprietary market analysis reports to provide market insights and keep you informed of the changes in the electricity market.

Timely data updates

Our forecast and forward curves are constantly updated including weekends.

We monitor the markets on a daily basis to incorporate relevant changes into our models as soon as possible.

Data item	Update frequency
Weather information	Twice a day
Electricity market fundamentals, such as pricing and demand	Once a day
Fuel and currency exchange rate forward curves	Once a week
Imported fuel price	Once a month