PwC Consulting, in collaboration with Takeda, launches the development of a simulator that uses data from the pandemic to predict patient behaviour as a way to manage future crises

Tokyo, Japan, December 23, 2021 - PwC Consulting LLC ('PwC Consulting') today announced the collaborative launch with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (‘Takeda’) of the development of a patient population simulator which predicts patient behavior to be used to manage future crises. This simulator was developed using Bodylogical®, Behavior PredictorTM and Demand Simulator technology developed by PwC, guided by Takeda expertise and calibrated by publicly available data sourced from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and third-party datasets.

PwC Consulting and Takeda announced their partnership to develop patient level digital twins in September 2019, but the COVID-19 pandemic created new challenges on a broader scale for the entire healthcare system. PwC Consulting and Takeda saw the need to expand their application of digital twins to entire populations so that crisis management for not just pandemics but other types of crises could be optimised. The patient comes first, and healthcare delivery can never stop. Managing future disruptions will require new thinking like digital twins.

With challenge also comes opportunity. The pandemic provided one of the deepest insights into patient behavior as individuals and at social group levels to date. Initial COVID-19 spikes elicited hyper response, while the pandemic’s later waves saw patient and population reactions dampened. At the same time, a wide spectrum of risk propensity, such as the degree to which a person would put off going to the hospital, was also evident. This range of observations and the resultant data allowed for human response to disruptions in the form of crises to be examined like never before. Takeda is considering these insights to better prepare for other future forms of crises, such as earthquakes and socio economic crises, as well.

Healthcare is a complex range of patient interactions ranging from diagnosis to treatment and ultimately maintenance over long periods. PwC provided insight into the full extent of these interactions and how they were potentially impacted by pandemic related patient behavior change. The supply (health care system) and demand (patient) side mismatches were a challenge to all involved and there was a general recognition that things need to be different not if but when this type of Black Swan event happens again.

‘In crises situations, patients deserve a system that can “sense and respond” rather than one characterized by long-cycle consideration and reaction. Digital twins allow for timing and targeting of responses and even anticipation of supply/demand mismatches in a much more effective manner’ remarks Jovelle Fernandez, Head of Takeda’s Japan Medical Office and leader of the Patient First Program.

Paul D’Alessandro, PwC US Partner and Global Leader of Bodylogical® says, ‘Digital twins like Bodylogical will capitalize on the incredible behavioral insight emerging out of the pandemic.’

PwC Consulting will continue to work together with Takeda to improve the accuracy of the simulator. In the year to come, initial results of their work together will be more broadly shared and the tools built will begin to aid healthcare systems' optimization. The opportunity to learn and apply the data gathered during this pandemic is unique in human history. Using digital twins like this simulator is the type of new thinking that must be applied so that the disruptions of the past two years are not repeated when we face our next challenge.

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