Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are topping the world’s highest economic growth cities in 2008-2025

 Ho Chi Minh City, 09 November 2009 -. Due to the growth of Vietnamese economy in recent years, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are projected to be the top two cities having the world’s highest average real GDP growth from 2008-2025 according to a recent article published in the UK Economic Outlook the research was conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC). The article named “Which are the largest city economies in the world and how might this change by 2025” provide estimates for GDP growth of the world’s major city economies from 2008 to 2025. The article also ranks this growth in GDP by taking into account the impact of the current economic downturn and the impact of a potential de-globalisation scenario. The study covered 151 urban agglomerations cities around the world, this included Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

In total, PwC’s GDP estimates suggest that the largest 100 cities accounted for approximately 30% of global GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), in 2008, while the top 30 cities alone accounted for around 18% of world GDP. In that same year Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and London was found to have the largest GDP within the ranked list. .

In 2025, according to PwC’s projections the largest five urban economies (by UN definitions) would remain the same as in 2008 although London overtakes Chicago to move into 4 th place. The largest ‘climbers’ within the top 30 are Shanghai (moving rapidly to top 10 from 25 th in 2008 to 9 th in 2025) and Mumbai (from 29 th in 2008 to 11 th in 2025). Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are two of the notable ‘climbers’ in the 2025 list. While Ho Chi Minh City makes a leap into 64 th from 95 th, Hanoi also races from 116 th in 2008 to 82 nd in 2025.

In terms of economic growth during the period 2008-2025, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City comes in as first and second in the top 30 fastest growing cities with an average real GDP growth of 7% for that period. The subsequent two runners-up placed 3 rd and 4 th are Changchun and Guangzhou of China. There are no advanced city economies represented in this list, as compared to 2 cities from Vietnam, 12 cities from India and 9 cities from China, this clearly shows a shifts in global economic weight towards emerging markets.

Ian S. Lydall, General Director at PricewaterhouseCoopers Vietnam, said:

“At present, the mega-cities of the major developed economies continue to lead the global GDP rankings. Only seven emerging economy cities are currently in the top 30 but our illustrative projections suggest that they will all move up the GDP rankings by 2025 and be joined in the top 30. Tellingly,

we expect the largest emerging market cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to grow at a faster rate (between 6%-7% pa) than the cities in advanced economies (ca 2%) leading to cumulative growth of up to almost 200% for the period under investigation 2008-2025. This is in contrast to advanced economy cities whose cumulative growth will be only around 35%”

 

Top 30 urban agglomerations by projected average real GDP growth in 2008-2025

(UN definitions and projections)

Growth rank

City

Country

Average real GDP growth in 2008-25

(% per annum)

1

Hanoi

Vietnam

7.0%

2

Ho Chi Minh City

Vietnam

7.0%

3

Changchun

China

6.9%

4

Guangzhou

China

6.8%

5

Addis Ababa

Ethiopia

6.8%

6

Xian

China

6.7%

7

Surat

India

6.7%

8

Beijing

China

6.7%

9

Jaipur

India

6.7%

10

Lucknow

India

6.6%

11

Chengdu

China

6.6%

12

Shenyang

China

6.6%

13

Kanpur

India

6.6%

14

Shanghai

China

6.6%

15

Tianjin

China

6.6%

16

Pune

India

6.6%

17

Chongqing

China

6.6%

18

Ahmedabad

India

6.5%

19

Kabul

Afghanistan

6.5%

20

Bangalore

India

6.5%

21

Hyderabad

India

6.5%

22

Dar es Salaam

Tanzania

6.5%

23

Chennai ( Madras)

India

6.5%

24

Delhi

India

6.4%

25

Lagos

Nigeria

6.4%

26

Nairobi

Kenya

6.4%

27

Kolkata ( Calcutta)

India

6.4%

28

Mumbai ( Bombay)

India

6.3%

29

Chittagong

Bangladesh

6.3%

30

Kinshasha

Democratic Republic of Congo

6.3%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers projections using UN population definitions

 

The full article is on page 20-34 of the UK Economic Outlook downloadable via the following link below: http://www.pwc.co.uk/eng/publications/uk_economic_outlook.html

 

 

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