Theme 1 Population Growth Downshifting Toward Structural Decline
1. Births Shift to Women Over 35
Birth rates for women 20 to 24 have fallen by more than half since 1990, and women 35 to 39 now have more births per 1,000 than women in their early 20s. Rates are falling for every age group under 35, including women 30 to 34, whose rate peaked around 2015. Delayed family formation shifts young-adult housing demand toward smaller, childless households.
2. Annual Births Fall to Early-1980s Levels
U.S. births peaked at 4.3 million in 2007 and have since fallen 16 percent to 3.6 million in 2025, matching early-1980s levels despite a population roughly 50 percent larger. Falling birth rates among women under 35 drive the decline. With population growth now concentrated among 35+ adults, smaller birth cohorts lock in slower natural growth in the population for decades.
3. Immigration Now Determines U.S. Population Growth
Natural change (births minus deaths) added 1.5 to 2 million people annually through 2010 but has fallen to just over 500,000, as low birth rates meet rising deaths from an aging population. Natural change is projected to turn negative in the next 10 to 15 years, leaving immigration as the only source of growth. With net immigration near zero in 2026, total growth falls to 600,000, the lowest in at least 100 years.
4. Fewer 18-Year-Olds Ahead
The number of Americans turning 18 reached 4.6 million in 2025, the highest since at least 1990, reflecting the 2007 birth peak plus immigrants who arrived as children. Births 18 years earlier point to a decline of 9 percent by 2035, with the steepest drop through 2028. The nationwide demographic tailwind for college enrollment and student housing has ended, though some regions will be insulated by strong enrollment.
5. Working-Age Population Stops Growing
The U.S. working-age population (ages 20 to 64) grew 0.5 percent per year from 2010 to 2025, reaching 199 million, but is projected to stay flat through 2029 as immigration falls and baby boomers continue aging out of the workforce. Labor force growth must now come from higher participation, which keeps break-even job growth low and removes a demographic tailwind for job-driven housing and commercial real estate demand.
Theme 2 Large Mid-30s Cohort Driving Spending and Housing Demand
6. Mid-30s Cohort Is America’s Largest
Americans ages 33 to 38 are the country’s largest age group: 28.9 million people, or an average of 4.8 million at each age, driven by the late-1980s and early-1990s birth surge plus decades of immigration. This group is at prime first-time homebuyer age and moving toward peak spending years, which arrive in their mid-40s over the next decade.
Theme 3 Shifting Domestic Migration Patterns Create New Winners
7. Top Migration Markets’ Net Gains Fall by Nearly Half
The 10 metro areas with the highest net domestic migration averaged net gains of 19,000 people in 2025, down 44 percent from 34,000 in 2019. Former leaders cooled most. Phoenix, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Dallas all dropped sharply. Lower home turnover and a weak hiring rate are suppressing long-distance mobility.
8. Southeast Holds, Midwest Gains Share of Movers
In the 12 months through June 2026, the Midwest’s share of households moving in from other regions rose 1.9 percentage points compared with 2019, and the Northeast’s rose 1.2 points, while the Southwest’s fell 1.7 points and the Northwest’s 0.6. The Southeast, Texas, and Florida held roughly steady. Relative affordability is drawing a larger share of movers to the Midwest and Northeast as the Southwest and Northwest lose ground in a shrinking pool of movers.
9. Suburbs Capture the Most Movers Leaving Cities
Urban counties lost a net 188,000 households to domestic migration from July 2025 to June 2026, while suburban counties gained a net 101,000, followed by exurban (60,000) and rural (27,000) counties. Urban counties absorb most international migrants, but with net immigration near zero, that offset has largely disappeared. Suburban net gains support demand for lower-density housing (for sale and for rent), retail, medical office, and last-mile warehouses.
10. Florida Net Domestic Migration Gains Momentum
Florida’s net domestic migration rate (move-ins minus move-outs as a share of all domestic household moves) fell from 6.1 percent in 2021 to negative 0.4 percent in 2024, then rebounded to 2.1 percent in the 12 months through July 2026, the highest since 2022 but less than half the 2018 to 2020 pace. Net domestic migration is now adding more to Florida housing and retail demand than at any point from 2023 to 2025.
11. Young Child Population Grows in Only 10 States
The population under age 5 declined in 40 states from 2020 to 2025, falling more than 3 percent in most. Growth was concentrated in the Southeast, led by Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina at more than 3 percent, with smaller gains in other states including Texas, Florida, Idaho, New Jersey, Connecticut, Alabama, and Delaware. Young adults and families drawn by lower costs and job growth are concentrating future family housing demand in these states.
Additional Demographic Considerations
12. Retirees Face Longer Retirements Than Ever
Americans reaching 65 today can expect to live to their mid- to late 80s, nearly six years longer than in 1950, extending remaining lifespan from 14 years to almost 20. Longer lives keep older households in their homes longer, delaying the release of existing homes to younger buyers, and add years of spending on medical care and leisure.
13. Older-Adult Death Rates Fall to Series Lows
The death rate for Americans ages 75 to 84 fell to 4.2 percent in 2025, continuing a general decline since 2000, with the exception of a COVID-era spike. The rate for those 85 and older dropped to 13.8 percent, near its 2009 low. Lower death rates extend how long older households occupy their homes, slowing the release of existing homes for resale.
14. Top 10 Percent Captures Two-Thirds of Wealth Gains
U.S. household net worth rose $71 trillion from early 2020 to early 2026, with $48 trillion, about two-thirds, going to the wealthiest 10 percent of households. The gap has widened since late 2024 as stock gains outpaced stalled home price growth, the main source of wealth for most households, reinforcing a K-shaped consumer economy.
