Business in a time of ‘lawlessness’ | as easy as ABC

He must be thinking there is one more thing to be thankful for, as he ends his term as the president of the most powerful country on Earth. He does not have to be stressed dealing with the new crude rhetoric from the Philippines, the likes of which they have not even began to prepare for.

We are more acclimatized here of those types of rhetoric – even of rhetoric involving official pronouncements, such as the declaration of a state of lawlessness. Some personalities in the Senate and Congress asked the president for guidelines. And while people may have fears about this proclamation as a prelude to a militarized rule, there is a more prevalent general level of comfort and ease. Where are these coming from?

There is one important guideline stated in the President’s proclamation of a “state of national emergency on account of lawless violence” in Mindanao and preventing its spread to the rest of the country. Such suppression must be done “with due regard to the fundamental civil and political rights of our citizens.” If there is another reason to feel relaxed about the proclamation, it is this – it is unnecessary as it is redundant.

Why? Because the proclamation commands the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police to suppress lawlessness. It is something that the president can do even without an official proclamation because the president is the Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces of the Philippines anyway. He can at any time use the Marines if he has to and make use of all military “intel” (intelligence) capabilities, without any special proclamation. For me, it’s all about the communication approach. I mean, he can do this by merely making internal instructions to the armed forces, and then hold a press conference to tell people to expect more military personnel on the road doing security checks for everyone’s added protection. But it is style. And what was chosen is one with lots of bravado – a presidential proclamation versus the downplayed ways of communicating to the public that there will be more security checks.

If I seem to downplay it and want to allay fears, it is because we do not want the confidence and focus of the Philippine CEOs disturbed. From a recent PwC CEO survey conducted with the Management Association of the Philippines, confidence about business growth and the support to government are on an upswing – but that confidence is quite vulnerable. While CEOs list overregulation and corruption on top of their concerns, there is nothing like political instability that can draw business growth plans to a slow down, if not a screeching, halt. Political unease will happen if the state of lawlessness is indeed advanced to the much feared “M” law, even if you label it Philippine-style.

Thailand, for me, is a good point of comparison to the Philippines, and I do not refer to the contest of which has the worse traffic between Bangkok and Metro Manila. While Thailand’s economy remains bigger, the Philippines has had higher growth in recent years. Peso and baht currency values against the US dollar are not far off, the industries that both countries support are almost common, and even the wages companies pay their employees would have about the same ratio of discrepancy as the Philippine peso has with the Thai baht.

When Thailand was placed under Martial Law, peace and order improved amid military rule and warrantless arrests. The blessing is that even the military loved the aging Thai king, and this monarchy brought subtle comfort to the entire episode. They maintained Thailand is business has usual. No matter – the Thai economy enjoyed little or almost no growth during the military rule, foreign investments in Thailand decreased year on year, and tourism was impacted immensely.

That Martial Law recently ended in Thailand and put in place is a transitory (?) leader with emergency powers (he can issue special decrees and still do warrantless arrests) has not helped. It is the same dog with a new collar, and in fact, raised new concerns internationally of a deepening dictatorship. According to the World Bank, Thailand would remain the slowest-growing economy in Southeast Asia at least until 2016.

Here at home, the grounds for “M” law – invasion and rebellion – are non-existent. The insurgency in Mindanao is still aspiring for resolution but is a contained conflict. Terrorism, on the other hand, is not rebellion. We even have a law that defines terrorism. The Mindanao insurgency and terrorism are therefore too poor to be used as excuses in lifting civil liberties. When cabinet members say that the M law will not be imposed, I actually believe them. Because I have observed that this president, despite his rhetoric, better off not unleashed, is a leader who is very passionate about wanting to succeed.

If our ageless democratic institutions, which include a free legislative and independent judiciary, are set aside, there will be unease or outright unrest. With unease, and with negative perception of the international community, tourism, investments, growth (let alone inclusive growth) will all be kept at bay. It is a lesson from any country, from any era. History favors those who are humble enough to learn from it.