Output dynamics
West Africa GDP growth was estimated to reach 4.4% in 2025 driven by new oil and gas production from Senegal and Niger. Larger economies such as Nigeria and Ghana both recorded growth in Q3 2025 with Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.98% driven by improvements in domestic reforms and growth in the services sector (finance and insurance, mining and quarrying and ICT), while Ghana recorded a 5.5% growth within the same period, driven by strong performances in agriculture and services, as it continues its recovery from previous downturns.
Looking ahead, economic growth across West Africa is expected to reach 4.2% in 2026 supported by continued domestic demand, expanding infrastructure and energy projects, and rising oil and gas output in countries such as Senegal and Niger, as well as sustained policy reforms that continue to boost investment and macroeconomic stability in key economies, including Nigeria, Ghana, and Cote d’ Ivoire.
Fiscal dynamics
Despite overall improvements and a decline in public debt in parts of the region, West Africa still faced high debt levels in 2025. Nigeria’s public debt stood at over ₦152 trillion (around USD100 billion) in Q2 2025, while Ghana recorded GHS630.2 billion in October 2025, supported by restructuring with bilateral and commercial creditors, lower near-term amortisation, and improved domestic currency strength.
Debt pressures are expected to stabilise or rise slightly in 2026 across West Africa. Ghana’s debt dynamics may improve further as ongoing restructuring and fiscal discipline rebuild confidence, easing refinancing and interest costs. Additionally, reforms in the domestic gold sector are expected to improve and sustain support for the domestic currency, preventing a burgeoning of the public debt denominated in foreign currency. In contrast, Nigeria remains fiscally vulnerable, with debt service projected at ₦15.52 trillion against revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, implying a high debt service-to-revenue ratio of 45%.
Monetary dynamics
West Africa’s monetary policy stance softened gradually in 2025 as central banks responded to declining inflation and sought to support economic activity through lower policy rates.
In Nigeria, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee eased MPR to 27% from 27.5% in September 2025, signaling a shift toward more accommodative policy amid sustained disinflation and a more stable exchange rate environment.
In 2025, Ghana’s monetary policy also shifted from tightening to easing as inflation moderated. After raising the policy rate to 28% early in the year, the Bank of Ghana cut rates to 25% in July, 21.5% in
September, and 18% by year-end, reflecting sustained disinflation and improving macroeconomic stability.
Looking ahead to 2026, monetary policy in West Africa is expected to continue easing gradually as inflationary pressures subside and economic growth strengthens. In Nigeria, the MPR is expected to ease gradually as the CBN seeks to support credit expansion and maintain price stability, amid moderating inflation and firmer FX conditions. In Ghana, the policy rate is forecast to fall to 15% or lower as disinflation advances and confidence in price stability grows, contingent on sustained fiscal discipline and effective monetary coordination.
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