Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget reflects a clear shift from spending-led stimulus to reform-driven growth. Set at ₦58.18 trillion, the budget is framed against lessons from 2025, where non-oil revenues outperformed expectations but capital expenditure was consistently under-implemented and debt servicing absorbed a large share of government revenue. These pressures have reinforced the need for tighter fiscal discipline and more effective capital deployment.
The 2026 budget is built on conservative oil-price assumptions, moderate production targets and an ambitious growth outlook. While these assumptions carry execution risks, they are supported by an explicit focus on macroeconomic stability and coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework prioritises revenue mobilisation, expenditure efficiency and debt sustainability, while creating room for private capital to play a larger role in infrastructure delivery.
Sectorally, the budget signals opportunities aligned with policy reform rather than public spending alone. Infrastructure, power, defence, agriculture, digital economy, health, education, solid minerals and creative industries are positioned for increased private-sector participation through PPPs, concessions and blended finance models.
Complementing the fiscal strategy are wide-ranging tax reforms aimed at simplifying administration, reducing distortions and improving compliance. Expanded input VAT claims, consolidated levies and revised income and capital gains tax thresholds are expected to lower the cost of doing business while reshaping government revenue dynamics.
The 2026 budget and tax reforms point to an economy where execution, reform credibility and private investment will define growth outcomes.
