Administrative Supervision Risk Model Developed for the Social Insurance Board

PwC Estonia has developed an administrative supervision risk model for the Social Insurance Board. The model aims to help the organisation more effectively assess how local governments organize social services for adults, identifying potential issues related to their accessibility or quality.

The main challenge was the significant variation in local governments’ service organisation, management practices, and resources, which makes it difficult to detect risk patterns of non-compliance. Many risks only become apparent through the interaction of multiple factors or during on-site inspections.

As a result of the analysis, an Excel-based risk model was created, providing an overview of the key risk areas in the administrative supervision of adult social services. The model consolidates risk factors into general municipality-level indicators that can be used to evaluate the organisation and accessibility of local government services.

This project represents an important step toward risk-based supervision. The Social Insurance Board can now allocate its limited resources more strategically to municipalities with higher risk levels, reducing subjectivity in decision-making and enabling earlier detection of situations where services formally exist but do not effectively meet individuals’ needs. Ultimately, the new model supports a more systematic protection of the rights and well-being of adults in need across Estonia.