Forest, paper and packaging deals insights: Midyear 2020

After a period of strong M&A over the past decade, dealmakers now face unprecedented disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic. Supply chain disruption, deteriorating and opportunistic end markets, reduced access to financing and workforce safety are some of the key factors forcing dealmakers to reevaluate their M&A strategies and how to get deals done.

The impact of COVID-19 on M&A activity on the Global Forest, Paper and Packaging sector has been significant. H1 2020 deal value and volume declined 55% and 30%, respectively, compared to H1 2019. Much of this decline occurred in Q2 2020 as both deal value and volume were down 59% and 58%, respectively, compared to Q1 2020. The lack of megadeals in 2019 continued into H1 2020. 

From a segment perspective, Paper and Fiber based products made up 48% and 46% of deal value and volume, respectively, including seven of the top ten deals in H1 2020.  Forestry had the largest transaction with Rayonier Inc.'s acquisition of Pope Resources LP for $552 million. Flexible Packaging & Miscellaneous Products continued to make up a significant share of deal volume (46%); however, deal value fell 78% in H1 2020 compared to H1 2019. 

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The COVID-19 pandemic and economic fallout has brought a virtual pause to M&A activity as investors assess what to do next. While many companies pull back on inorganic growth, proactive and timely M&A can help leapfrog competition, take share and accelerate recovery. Forest, Paper and Packaging companies must adapt to this new, evolving environment in how they assess and evaluate M&A opportunities as well as how they get deals done. 

Consumer and workforce behaviors will change as safety becomes of greater importance. This will likely increase the use of e-commerce as consumers look for contactless purchases, thereby increasing demand for quality consumer packaging and corrugated shipping cartons. The impact of these behavior changes on industry dynamics could shift the focus of dealmakers from end markets with lower recovery trajectories (e.g., automotive, construction, consumer products) to more attractive industries with potentially higher recovery trajectories (e.g., hygiene, pharma, nutrition).    

Companies will likely reassess the best use of cash which may or may not include M&A. Cash-rich companies will be well suited to seize opportunities to improve and consolidate position and invest in differentiated technology, critical infrastructure, etc. Private equity is well-positioned. At a time when the price of assets continues to decline, PE investors have access to significant capital for deals. Those willing to consider how this health crisis could change the direction of certain industries will be better positioned to make deals with lasting impacts.   

Supply chain optimization will remain a key driver as trade tensions and the decline in multilateral behaviors continue. This should increase the complexity both in terms of cross-border trade and investment and could present greater local deal opportunities. Companies interested in growing market share beyond their home country will need to re-evaluate business models and plans for integrating assets going forward. Technology and innovation will continue as popular themes, particularly with how the pandemic will continue to impact the way we work, live and consume. Such solutions will continue to be highly sought after and cross-sector companies who can bring key capabilities will be attractive targets for industry acquirers.

The ability of dealmakers to be agile and open to new approaches for getting deals done in this environment will be critical for success. Travel restrictions and growing "work from home" trends have prohibited traditional site visits, in-person management presentations and due diligence. Dealmakers should look to leverage various technologies for virtual meetings and site visits as well as data analytic resources to complete due diligence.