Data and projections: February 2019

  GDP share 2017 Real GDP growth (% y/y) Inflation (% y/y) Fiscal bal. (% GDP)
  PPP MER Q3 - 18 2018 2019 Nov - 18 2018 2019p 2018 2019
Middle East 100.0% 100.0% - 2.8 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.8 -2.5 -1.9
GCC 61.0% 72.3% - 2.5 2.8 1.7 2.2 2.2
-1.8 -0.8
Saudi 32.2% 33.6% 2.5 2.2
2.4
2.8 2.5
2.2
-4.6^ -3.2
UAE 12.7% 18.9% - 2.9
3.3
1.3
3.2
2.3
1.2
1.3
Qatar 6.2% 8.2% 2.2
2.7
2.8 -0.2
0.3 2.0
1.9
2.8
Kuwait 5.3% 6.3% - 2.3
3.4
0.1 0.5
1.9
3.8
5.3
Oman 3.4% 3.6% - 1.9
3.1 1.1 0.9
2.7
-5.7 -5.3
Bahrain 1.3% 1.7% 1.6 3.2
2.8
0.7
2.0
3.3 -8.0 -6.8
Non-GCC 39.0% 27.7% - 3.7 5.5 7.2 7.4 7.9 -4.6 -4.9
Egypt 22.5% 10.9% 5.3 5.3
5.2 15.7 14.4
13.8 -9.6 -8.4
Iraq 11.7% 10.1% - 1.5
6.5
0.8
0.4
2.0
5.6
3.8
Jordan 1.6% 1.8% 2.0
2.3 2.3
4.7
4.6
3.4 -2.9 -3.0
Lebanon 1.6% 2.5% - 1.0 2.2
5.8
6.2
3.6
-8.6
-8.1
Libya 1.2% 1.9% - 10.9
10.8 -1.8 10.8
17.9 -25.1 -26.9
Palestinian Territories 0.4% 0.67% -0.5
1.4
1.4
0.1 -0.2
1.5 -8.3 -10.4

Sources:

  • PwC analysis, National statistical authorities, Bloomberg consensus forecasts (as of end-2018), IMF (WEO, October 2018) estimates and forecasts for Iraq, Libya & Palestine (not covered by BB).
  • *Estimated based on the Jan-Nov outturn
  • ^Official preliminary estimate.

Notes: The Middle East region is defined here based on PwC’s business coverage (which excludes non-Arab countries, Syria and Yemen).

Chart of the quarter

PwC’s annual CEO survey shows that in the Middle East, CEOs are less concerned about four major potential threats to growth than in 2017: geopolitical uncertainty, uncertain economic growth, over-regulation and increasing taxes. The biggest shift was in tax, which only 58% reported concerns compared to 85% in 2017 (ahead of the launch of VAT in Saudi and UAE). There was also a significant decline in concerns about regulation, from 85% to 64%, which is encouraging for the business environment and also better than the global average. The survey was conducted just before global market turmoil and declining oil prices at the end of 2018, and so concerns about the economy may have increased since then.

Chart: How concerned are you about the following economic, policy, social and environmental threats to your organisation's growth prospects?

Source: PwC Middle East 22nd CEO Survey: Confidence down, disruption all around

Contact us

Hani Ashkar

Hani Ashkar

Middle East Senior Partner, PwC Middle East

Stephen Anderson

Stephen Anderson

Strategy Leader, PwC Middle East

Richard Boxshall

Richard Boxshall

Global Economics Leader and Middle East Chief Economist, PwC Middle East

Tel: +971 4 304 3100

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