GDP share 2017 | Real GDP growth (% y/y) | Inflation (% y/y) | Fiscal bal. (% GDP) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PPP | MER | Q3 - 18 | 2018 | 2019 | Nov - 18 | 2018 | 2019p | 2018 | 2019 | |
Middle East | 100.0% | 100.0% | - | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | -2.5 | -1.9 |
GCC | 61.0% | 72.3% | - | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
-1.8 | -0.8 |
Saudi | 32.2% | 33.6% | 2.5 | 2.2 |
2.4 |
2.8 | 2.5 |
2.2 |
-4.6^ | -3.2 |
UAE | 12.7% | 18.9% | - | 2.9 |
3.3 |
1.3 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
Qatar | 6.2% | 8.2% | 2.2 |
2.7 |
2.8 | -0.2 |
0.3 | 2.0 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
Kuwait | 5.3% | 6.3% | - | 2.3 |
3.4 |
0.1 | 0.5 |
1.9 |
3.8 |
5.3 |
Oman | 3.4% | 3.6% | - | 1.9 |
3.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
2.7 |
-5.7 | -5.3 |
Bahrain | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6 | 3.2 |
2.8 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
3.3 | -8.0 | -6.8 |
Non-GCC | 39.0% | 27.7% | - | 3.7 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | -4.6 | -4.9 |
Egypt | 22.5% | 10.9% | 5.3 | 5.3 |
5.2 | 15.7 | 14.4 |
13.8 | -9.6 | -8.4 |
Iraq | 11.7% | 10.1% | - | 1.5 |
6.5 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
5.6 |
3.8 |
Jordan | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0 |
2.3 | 2.3 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
3.4 | -2.9 | -3.0 |
Lebanon | 1.6% | 2.5% | - | 1.0 | 2.2 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
3.6 |
-8.6 |
-8.1 |
Libya | 1.2% | 1.9% | - | 10.9 |
10.8 | -1.8 | 10.8 |
17.9 | -25.1 | -26.9 |
Palestinian Territories | 0.4% | 0.67% | -0.5 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
0.1 | -0.2 |
1.5 | -8.3 | -10.4 |
Sources:
Notes: The Middle East region is defined here based on PwC’s business coverage (which excludes non-Arab countries, Syria and Yemen).
PwC’s annual CEO survey shows that in the Middle East, CEOs are less concerned about four major potential threats to growth than in 2017: geopolitical uncertainty, uncertain economic growth, over-regulation and increasing taxes. The biggest shift was in tax, which only 58% reported concerns compared to 85% in 2017 (ahead of the launch of VAT in Saudi and UAE). There was also a significant decline in concerns about regulation, from 85% to 64%, which is encouraging for the business environment and also better than the global average. The survey was conducted just before global market turmoil and declining oil prices at the end of 2018, and so concerns about the economy may have increased since then.
Richard Boxshall
Global Economics Leader and Middle East Chief Economist, PwC Middle East
Tel: +971 4 304 3100