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Long-term Global Economic Outlook for 2050: How will the world economic order change by 2050?

2017-05-08

This report is the most recent version of The World in 2050, which forecasts GDP in 32 major countries through 2050.

It may seem like a bold attempt to show economic forecasts for 2050 and even 2017, after a year of repeated tremors in world politics, such as the victory of the EU secessionists in the UK referendum and the victory of Mr. Trump in the U.S. presidential election.

However, it is actually very difficult to envision a longer-term prospect for the world economy beyond the short-term buoyancy of the economic and political cycle, but it is still significant.

The methodology used in this report is based on rigorous modelling and emphasizes the fundamental drivers of growth: international trade brought about by technological advance, and the demographic and productivity gained through investment.

These drivers helped the United States develop from the 19th century to the early 20th century, becoming the world's largest economic power despite the Civil War, various wars with other countries, the assassination of three presidents, and some economic and financial crises.

The global economic growth recovered vigorously from the two world wars and the Great Depression, and the world economy reached record highs in the postwar decades, largely because of these drivers. Looking to the future, it is believed that the emerging economies will dominate the 21st century. By 2050, China will be the world's largest economic power by a large margin, while India will slightly overtake the United States to become the world's second largest economic power, and Indonesia is expected to rise to fourth place. EU27 countries may have less than 10% of global GDP. The world economy will size grow faster than demographic growth and will more than double between now and 2050.

Long-term Global Economic Outlook for 2050: How will the world economic order change by 2050?