Protecting people and prosperity

Climate risks to nine key commodities

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  • Report
  • 6 minute read
  • April 30, 2024

In this report, find out precisely how much climate change-driven heat stress and drought threaten production of commodities we all rely on like iron, lithium, and rice.

Read the report

As climate disruption intensifies, how will it affect our communities, our economies, our lives?

We depend on nine essential commodities: critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and copper; food crops such as wheat, maize, and rice; and vital metals like iron, zinc, and bauxite (which is used to make aluminium).

These minerals and metals are critical to transportation, construction, manufacturing, electronics, and the green transition. The key crops supply 42% of human calories. And production of all of these commodities could be disrupted by climate change unless we take action to adapt to a hotter world. 

Read on to see the risks - and how to manage them.

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Learn your risks Click the commodities your company relies on. Consider your whole value chain.

Heat stress
% of Bauxite production capacity exposed
to heat stress risk
  • 100
  • 90
  • 80
  • 70
  • 60
  • 50
  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10
  • 0
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • 2020
  • 2035
  • 2050*
  • 2050**
Drought
% of Bauxite production capacity exposed
to drought risk
  • 100
  • 90
  • 80
  • 70
  • 60
  • 50
  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10
  • 0
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • Minimum Risk: 0%
  • Low risk: 0%
  • Extreme risk: 0%
  • High risk: 0%
  • Significant risk: 0%
  • 2020
  • 2035
  • 2050*
  • 2050**
* Low emissions scenario ** High emissions scenario
Source: PwC Climate risks to nine key commodities
Heat stress Drought
Resource Impact 2020 2035 2050 (low) 2050 (high) 2020 2035 2050 (low) 2050 (high)
Bauxite Low 14.94% 2.83% 5.68% 3.02% 24.84% 63.92% 39.94% 24.20%
Bauxite Moderate 46.99% 59.57% 51.59% 27.98% 0.00% 2.84% 25.87% 41.51%
Bauxite High 0.00% 2.50% 10.51% 36.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.20%
Bauxite Extreme 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cobalt Low 4.31% 4.53% 6.85% 4.59% 5.53% 62.62% 8.89% 9.19%
Cobalt Moderate 3.03% 6.49% 6.49% 8.89% 0.00% 20.45% 72.60% 73.72%
Cobalt High 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.78% 3.39%
Cobalt Extreme 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Copper Low 4.56% 7.79% 8.01% 5.55% 39.85% 46.39% 33.93% 13.16%
Copper Moderate 3.33% 7.03% 7.11% 9.47% 7.11% 17.17% 30.07% 44.97%
Copper High 0.00% 0.72% 0.73% 2.16% 0.00% 22.71% 17.20% 12.19%
Copper Extreme 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 6.96% 19.93%
Iron Low 29.29% 3.38% 2.68% 4.98% 43.10% 54.79% 64.15% 49.10%
Iron Moderate 32.70% 55.24% 55.65% 50.52% 0.00% 14.88% 15.82% 21.15%
Iron High 0.06% 5.41% 5.88% 11.92% 0.00% 1.35% 1.53% 12.97%
Iron Extreme 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.74%
Lithium Low 3.60% 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% 61.26% 46.92% 20.37% 14.89%
Lithium Moderate 12.86% 14.89% 14.86% 3.60% 0.00% 4.56% 41.33% 22.54%
Lithium High 0.00% 1.58% 1.60% 12.86% 0.00% 33.13% 8.27% 33.89%
Lithium Extreme 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 24.85% 27.10%
Zinc Low 7.02% 4.40% 4.12% 3.44% 23.76% 47.19% 49.35% 35.11%
Zinc Moderate 18.12% 20.96% 20.40% 13.98% 0.00% 17.38% 14.29% 28.74%
Zinc High 0.39% 4.22% 5.11% 14.70% 0.00% 2.51% 4.34% 13.60%
Zinc Extreme 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
Maize Low 12.27% 19.81% 23.34% 28.89% 19.47% 58.47% 54.05% 48.25%
Maize Moderate 12.29% 19.25% 21.27% 27.69% 0.34% 6.70% 11.96% 27.74%
Maize High 1.77% 3.69% 4.76% 9.48% 0.00% 0.68% 0.79% 2.21%
Maize Extreme 0.00% 0.97% 1.10% 2.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.55%
Wheat Low 6.71% 5.51% 5.63% 8.34% 22.02% 41.71% 34.48% 19.34%
Wheat Moderate 14.87% 14.12% 13.42% 10.35% 0.52% 17.91% 28.54% 41.27%
Wheat High 13.06% 12.28% 10.82% 10.34% 0.00% 1.21% 1.45% 8.17%
Wheat Extreme 0.41% 8.32% 11.73% 18.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.91%
Rice Low 11.85% 6.81% 5.93% 5.18% 7.56% 15.89% 13.31% 21.73%
Rice Moderate 55.74% 40.81% 34.14% 23.73% 0.04% 2.11% 2.14% 5.52%
Rice High 18.85% 36.80% 41.60% 40.76% 0.00% 0.37% 0.38% 0.72%
Rice Extreme 0.30% 6.86% 10.78% 25.73% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%

Implications for business

1. Risks are rising for all nine commodities

In some cases, risks are rising sharply from low levels, underlining the need to ensure resource producers are prepared to manage increasing risks that, in some cases, they may have little experience in managing.

2. We can’t assume that future emissions reductions will protect us from a changing climate

Even in an optimistic scenario in which global carbon emissions drop rapidly, heat stress and drought risks will increase significantly, highlighting the importance of adapting to a changing climate while we strive to reduce carbon emissions.

3. Resource producers and consumers should begin preparing for growing disruption risk

Already, 47% of CEOs have taken proactive measures to safeguard their workforces and physical assets from climate change, according to PwC’s 2024 Annual Global CEO Survey. However, more needs to be done to enhance resilience.

Leaders' perspectives

Will Jackson-Moore

Global Sustainability Leader, PwC UK
‘Many locations that produce essential commodities are likely to experience more frequent spells of intense drought and heat stress by 2050, even in an optimistic low emissions scenario.

‘To avoid economic losses and protect communities and ecosystems; producers, and the broader business community, should understand the impact of climate disruption on production and engage in multi-stakeholder efforts to adapt. This will also strengthen efforts to more rapidly transition to a net zero economy.’

Emma Cox

Global Climate Leader, PwC UK
‘Even if global carbon emissions rapidly decrease, climate disruption poses a serious and growing threat to the world’s ability to produce essential commodities - including food as well as materials that are themselves essential to the net zero transition.

‘While CEOs are taking action to both cut emissions and adapt to climate change, more needs to be done. Businesses need to understand their dependencies and impacts, then work with governments and communities to transform their consumption and production patterns. This is crucial not only for the ongoing success of individual businesses, but also for the overall health and prosperity of the global population.’

Read the full report

See how climate change-driven heat stress and drought threaten the production of essential commodities, and learn how businesses can take steps to adapt and protect their supply chains.

Download report (PDF of 7.56mb)

Next steps for business

Explore practical actions firms can take to protect their supply chains and operations from growing commodity risks.

Further insights

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Contact us

Will  Jackson-Moore

Will Jackson-Moore

Partner, Global Sustainability Leader, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7710 157908

Renate de Lange-Snijders

Renate de Lange-Snijders

Partner, Global Sustainability Markets Leader, PwC Netherlands

Tel: +31 (0)62 248 81 40

Emma Cox

Emma Cox

Global Climate Leader, Partner, PwC United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)7973 317011

Steve Bochanski

Steve Bochanski

Principal, Climate Risk Leader, PwC United States

Tel: +1 610 633 5332

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