Changing Supply-Demand Dynamic Tips the Balance in the US Lodging Sector, According to PwC

Occupancy levels expected to decline in 2017 after an eight-year run

New York, NY, November 29, 2016 The updated lodging forecast released today by PwC US anticipates occupancy levels will remain flat in 2016, and average daily rate (ADR) will drive a revenue per available room (“RevPAR”) increase of 2.9%.  Supply growth continues to be slightly below previous estimates (1.6%), according to the report.

Looking forward to 2017, acceleration of supply growth - reaching the long-term average of 1.9% - combined with a continued deceleration in demand growth, is expected to result in declining occupancy levels, the first such decline in eight years. ADR growth is expected to slow driving a below-inflationary RevPAR increase of 1.7%, the smallest increase since the end of the recession.

Our outlook

PwC’s outlook, which is based on an economic forecast from Oxford Economics, notes that after a tepid first half, real GDP in the third quarter increased 2.9 percent, driven by a combination of modest increases in consumer spending and stronger-than-expected exports. Uncertainty, both international and domestic, continues to weigh on US lodging industry performance. The impact of the recently concluded US elections, coupled with plateauing growth in corporate profits, is expected to continue to impact corporate transient demand. Additional demand-side concerns, including the strong US Dollar, Brexit, and economic weakness in the Eurozone, as well as Zika and depressed energy sector activity, are all expected to contribute to the continued weakness in lodging sector demand growth.

The updated estimates from PwC are based on a quarterly econometric analysis of the US lodging sector, using an updated forecast released by Oxford Economics and historical statistics supplied by STR and other data providers.

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Occupancy 62.8% 59.8% 54.6% 57.6% 60.0% 61.4% 62.3% 64.4% 65.4% 65.4% 64.9%
ADR Growth 6.6% 2.9% -8.6% -0.1% 3.8% 4.2% 3.7% 4.6% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6%
RevPAR Growth 6.1% -2.0% -16.6% 5.4% 8.1% 6.7% 5.2% 8.2% 6.2% 2.9% 1.7%
Source: PwC US, based on STR data

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Occupancy

62.8%

59.8%

54.6%

57.6%

60.0%

61.4%

62.3%

64.4%

65.4%

65.4%

64.9%

ADR Growth

6.6%

2.9%

-8.6%

-0.1%

3.8%

4.2%

3.7%

4.6%

4.5%

2.9%

2.6%

RevPAR Growth

6.1%

-2.0%

-16.6%

5.4%

8.1%

6.7%

5.2%

8.2%

6.2%

2.9%

1.7%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Occupancy

62.8%

59.8%

54.6%

57.6%

60.0%

61.4%

62.3%

64.4%

65.4%

65.4%

64.9%

ADR Growth

6.6%

2.9%

-8.6%

-0.1%

3.8%

4.2%

3.7%

4.6%

4.5%

2.9%

2.6%

RevPAR Growth

6.1%

-2.0%

-16.6%

5.4%

8.1%

6.7%

5.2%

8.2%

6.2%

2.9%

1.7%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Occupancy

62.8%

59.8%

54.6%

57.6%

60.0%

61.4%

62.3%

64.4%

65.4%

65.4%

64.9%

ADR Growth

6.6%

2.9%

-8.6%

-0.1%

3.8%

4.2%

3.7%

4.6%

4.5%

2.9%

2.6%

RevPAR Growth

6.1%

-2.0%

-16.6%

5.4%

8.1%

6.7%

5.2%

8.2%

6.2%

2.9%

1.7%

“While global and domestic uncertainty related to the potential outcome of the US presidential election has now receded, uncertainty is now focused around the economic and social policies of the new administration, and the potential impact on the US economy,” said Scott D. Berman, principal and U.S. industry leader, hospitality & leisure, PwC. “These, among other macroeconomic headwinds will be factors we will be closely watching as we approach 2017.”

About PwC

At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. We’re a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 223,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.

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Carey Bodenheimer
West Coast Markets (Pacific Northwest, California, Rockies, Texas) and Consumer Sectors (Retail, Consumer, Hospitality and Leisure)
Tel: +1 (213) 392 9684
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