India to grow to almost 90% of us economy by 2050. China to overtake us economy by 2025. Vietnam may be fastest growing of emerging economies

NEW DELHI, 7 March 2008 – Investors need to look beyond the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) for future growth opportunities according to a new report from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
‘The World in 2050: Beyond the BRICs’ concludes that long-term prospects for China, India and other so-called ‘E7’ economies (Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey) are still upbeat, but the report looks for the first time at an additional 13 emerging economies that also have the potential to grow significantly faster than the established Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, said:

  • “The global centre of economic gravity is already shifting to China, India and other large emerging economies and our analysis suggests that this process has a lot further to run.
  • “Our latest projections suggest that China could overtake the US in around 2025 to become the world’s largest economy and will continue to grow to around 130% of the size of the US by 2050. India could grow to almost 90% of the size of the US by 2050. Brazil seems likely to overtake Japan by 2050 to move into fourth place, while Russia, Mexico and Indonesia all have the potential to have economies larger than those of Germany or the UK by the middle of this century.
  • “But the fastest mover could be Vietnam, with a potential growth rate of almost 10% per annum in real dollar terms that could push it up to around 70% of the size of the UK economy by 2050.”


INDIA to GROW TO ALMOST 90% OF US ECONOMY by 2050. CHINA TO OVERTAKE US ECONOMY BY 2025. VIETNAM may be fastest growing of emerging economies /2…

As per the report, India rather than China, tops the growth league table, a reflection of India’s working age population which is projected by UN to continue to grow at a healthy rate unlike China, and the fact that there is greater scope for productivity and education levels to rise across Indian population, enabling the country to catch up with OECD countries in the long run. The key to achieving the growth potential, indicated by the report, will be establishing and maintaining a macroeconomic, legal and public policy environment conducive to trade, investment, increased education levels and hence economic growth. After 2030, the younger and faster growing Indian population is expected to age, experiencing a gradual deceleration.

The report also highlights that there are many other alternatives worth considering, depending on the nature of the investment and the risk tolerance of the investor.

Nigeria, while high-risk, has the long-term potential to overtake South Africa to be the largest African economy by 2050. The Philippines, Egypt and Bangladesh also have high growth potential but also high risk levels. But with the possible exception of Vietnam relative to Turkey, the additional analysis does not change the conclusion from earlier PricewaterhouseCoopers research that the E7 will remain the largest emerging economies through to 2050.

John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, added that:
  • “The rapid growth of the emerging economies does not mean the demise of the established OECD economies. In fact it should prove to be a boost for them through growing income from exports and overseas investments, even as the OECD share of world GDP declines.
  • “But while the macroeconomic story should be ‘win-win’, at the company level there are likely to be both winners and losers from the process of adjusting to this new world economic order.”

Retailers should be potential winners by benefiting from lower cost imports into their OECD markets while also having the potential to set up new stores in the E7 countries. China, in particular, is likely to be the second largest consumer market in the world by 2020, while cities across the leading emerging markets from Shanghai to Mexico City will have rapidly growing middle class populations with the spending power to afford Western consumer goods and services.

John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, commented:
“But of course, retailers need to be savvy enough to identify the right business strategies and local partners for such overseas ventures. This has not always been the case for overseas investments by retailers in the past, particularly in culturally unfamiliar territories such as China or India.”

Similar cautions apply to other potential winners, such as business services, energy and utilities, healthcare, educational services, media companies and owners of leading global brands. All of these are, in principle, well placed to benefit from the rapid growth in emerging markets provided they can identify and execute the appropriate business strategies, bearing in mind that strong domestic competitors either already exist or will probably soon emerge in these markets.


INDIA to GROW TO ALMOST 90% OF US ECONOMY by 2050. CHINA TO OVERTAKE US ECONOMY BY 2025. VIETNAM may be fastest growing of emerging economies /3…

In the financial services sector, while the emerging markets of the E7 provide considerable opportunities, it is expected that large financial service providers will emerge in economies such as China and India that may increasingly seek to play on a global stage, particularly in serving business customers and operating in wholesale markets.

Losers are likely to be mass market manufacturers due to increased Chinese competition. New lower cost competitors like Vietnam will also increasingly challenge China as the leader of low-cost manufacturing in the global economy, while China itself moves into higher technology areas just as Japan and South Korea did in earlier decades. In the long term, perhaps India too may displace China gradually, if it can create the right political and economic pre-conditions for manufacturing investment.

Other potential losers will include companies (including manufacturers) that are heavy users of energy and other commodities as inputs, given the likely upward pressure on the relative prices of these commodities from rapid growth in China and other emerging economies. As highlighted in previous PricewaterhouseCoopers research in their ‘World in 2050’ series, mitigating upward pressure on energy consumption and carbon emissions is one of the most important challenges posed by rapid growth of the emerging economies.

ENDS


Notes to Editor:

1. Table A: Projected relative size of economies in 2007 and 2050 (US = 100)

Country
(indices with US = 100)		 GDP at market exchange rates in US $ terms GDP in PPP terms
2007 2050 2007 2050
US 100 100 100 100
Japan 32 19 28 19
China 23 129 51 129
Germany 22 14 20 14
UK 18 14 15 14
France 17 14 15 14
Italy 14 10 13 10
Canada 10 9 10 9
Spain 9 9 10 9
Brazil 8 26 15 26
Russia 8 17 17 17
India 7 88 22 88
South Korea 7 8 9 8
Mexico 7 17 10 17
Australia 6 6 5 6
Turkey 3 10 5 10
Indonesia 3 17 7 17
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates (using UN population projections).





INDIA to GROW TO ALMOST 90% OF US ECONOMY by 2050. CHINA TO OVERTAKE US ECONOMY BY 2025. VIETNAM may be fastest growing of emerging economies /4…

3. Table B: Projected real growth rates for expanded group of emerging market economies: 2007-50 (% per annum)

Country GDP in
US $ terms		 GDP in domestic currency or at PPPs Population GDP per capita at PPPs
Vietnam 9.8 6.8 0.8 6.0
India 8.5 5.8 0.8 5.0
Nigeria 8.0 6.1 1.6 4.4
Philippines 7.2 5.2 1.1 4.1
Egypt 7.1 5.1 1.1 3.9
Bangladesh 7.0 5.1 1.1 3.9
China 6.8 4.7 0.1 4.6
Indonesia 6.7 4.5 0.6 3.9
Pakistan 6.4 4.9 1.4 3.5
E7 average 6.4 4.5 0.5 4.0
Malaysia 5.8 4.3 1.0 3.3
Thailand 5.7 3.6 0.1 3.5
Iran 5.2 3.8 0.8 3.0
Brazil 5.2 3.8 0.7 3.1
Turkey 5.1 4.1 0.7 3.4
Argentina 4.9 3.7 0.6 3.0
South Africa 4.8 3.7 0.3 3.3
Saudi Arabia 4.8 4.1 1.4 2.7
Mexico 4.7 3.7 0.5 3.2
Russia 4.3 2.5 -0.6 3.2
Poland 3.4 2.1 -0.5 2.7
G7 average 2.0 2.2 0.3 1.9
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers GDP growth estimates (rounded to nearest 0.1%), population growth projections from the UN. E7 countries and the E7 and G7 averages are shown in bold.

This new research uses the same methodology for projecting long-term economic growth rates as previous PricewaterhouseCoopers reports in the World in 2050 series in March 2006 (focusing on the E7 economies and the advanced economies shown in Table A) and September 2006 (focusing on the implications for global energy consumption, carbon emissions and climate change policy). But this new report updates the projections to take account of actual performance in 2006-7, the latest UN demographic projections to 2050 and other relevant new information. It also extends the analysis to 13 other emerging economies with the potential to be one of the largest 30 economies in the world by 2050. Together this ‘PwC 30’ group of economies accounts for around 85% of world economic output (GDP).

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