Banking in 2050

The accelerating shift in economic power from the developed to emerging economies is dramatically changing the banking industry across the world.

This report provides projections of the long-term trends of the banking sector based on the underlying macro-economic trends, from now until 2050 for the world’s leading economies.

The recent global financial crisis shook the world economy and set in motion significant changes to the banking industry. In this report we present updated projections on how large we expect the banking industry to become in the world’s largest economies over the next 40 years, building on our 2007 report on this same topic that was produced prior to the onset of the financial crisis, and our updated GDP projections published earlier this year

Our key findings are that:

  • The emerging economies’ banking sectors are expected to outgrow those in the developed economies by an even greater margin than we projected before the financial crisis.
  • By 2050 the leading ‘E7’ emerging economies could have domestic banking assets and profits that exceed those in the G7 by around 50%.
  • China could overtake the US in terms of the size of their domestic banking sectors by around 2023.
  • India has particularly strong long-term growth potential and our projections suggest it could become the third largest domestic banking sector by 2050 after China and the US, but ahead of Japan, the UK and Germany. Brazil could also rise strongly up the global banking league table over this period.